The Houston Texans host the Buffalo Bills in Week One this season, and they’ll be looking for their third consecutive home victory over Buffalo in the series between these two AFC foes. Buffalo lost close games at NRG Stadium in each of the last two seasons, dropping a 23-20 decision during the 2024 season and a 23-19 contest last year.
For Houston, much of their success against Buffalo has come thanks to their stifling defense. Houston manages to harass quarterback Josh Allen in ways that most of the NFL
has been unable to duplicate. Can the Texans do that again? If so, the Bills could be in a heap of trouble.
In order for Buffalo to come out with a win on Sunday, they’ll need to do a better job dictating the game to the Houston defense than they have in he past. However, they’ll also need to put themselves in good situations by limiting what could be a very potent Texans offense, as well.
Here are five Texans to watch this Sunday against Buffalo.
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QB C.J. Stroud
Sure, it’s usually a given that the opposing quarterback needs to be controlled in order for your team to win; however, with a Houston team that has big-play potential on each snap, it becomes that much more important to make sure that the quarterback never feels comfortable. Stroud entered the NFL with authority as a rookie in 2023, but his overall numbers and performances have regressed since. The last game Houston played last season was also the worst of Stroud’s professional career, as he mustered just a 28 quarterback rating while throwing four interceptions in a playoff loss to the New England Patriots. If Buffalo’s defensive front can win without blitzing, it’s going to be a long day for Stroud, as he does not perform well when pressured. Defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard can use disguise to fool Stroud into heating himself up in the pocket, as well, as Stroud struggled with that particular method throughout last season. Penning Stroud in the pocket and bringing effective, juducious pressure is a huge key to success this week.
WR Nico Collins
The Bills have limited Collins to just five catches in their two matchups where he played, which sounds like they’ve done well to keep Collins from wrecking the game. However, Collins has 133 yards and a touchdown on those five catches, which amounts to 26.6 yards per reception. That’s the best mark he has against anyone in his NFL career. Collins is an elite wideout looking to earn his fourth consecutive 1,000-yard receiving season. Whether it’s Christian Benford, Maxwell Hairston, Davison Igbinosun, or some combination of those three plus others in on covering Collins, Buffalo needs to know that he’s a big play waiting to happen. Limiting those shots and forcing Stroud to check down repeatedly will increase the chances of a mistake on the offensive end. The Bills can’t let Collins run wild and free throughout the secondary. I’m interested to see how Jim Leonhard goes about stopping a team’s top wideout—will Benford travel with Collins? Will the Bills rely on combo zones or double teams? Will they keep their corners on one side of the field and let them matchup with whomever lines up across from them? We’ll find out soon enough.
RT Trent Brown
Houston’s offensive line is generally regarded as one of the worst in the NFL. This gives Bills fans hope that the team can exploit that weakness and win in the pass rush, though years of falling short in that regard (think of the Divisional Round matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals a few years back) might lead to limited optimism. Brown is a reserve tackle who has had some good years, but who has also been beaten rather routinely by faster edge rushers. This is a matchup I love for newly acquired outside linebacker Bradley Chubb, who had a strong season with the Miami Dolphins last year coming off of an ACL tear the year prior. If the Bills send extra rushers, it also wouldn’t surprise me to see that pressure come from this side, as it would serve two purposes: First, it would allow the Bills to attack a backup. Second, it would force Stroud to roll to his left rather than his right. If Brown can hold up in pass protection—and the Texans line can open holes for newly acquired running back David Montgomery, who should add much-needed juice to their rushing attack—then Buffalo could be in for a long day. However, if the Bills can find some early-down wins against a poor protection unit, then they could force Houston into a pass-happy game script. That could lead to some big hits for Buffalo’s pass rushers early.
The Whole Defensive Line
Yeah, this is cheating, but let’s be honest: it’s really hard to pick just one person up front as the key to this whole Texans pass rush. Will Anderson is phenomenal, Danielle Hunter is phenomenal, Sheldon Rankins is a monster, and Jadeveon Clowney still has plenty left as a situational pass-rusher. I could have skipped this group altogether since they were so problematic last year—and we all know they’re going to be a handful again this season—but it would have been disingenuous of me to pretend like this front isn’t excellent. On the flip side of the Texans, Buffalo’s offensive line generally grades out as one of the better units in the league, yet if you just watched them last season against Houston, you’d never have known it. Josh Allen’s internal clock has to be a little quicker this week, because holding the ball against this defensive front likely leads to the blue medical tent during the game and a flight home nursing an 0-1 record after it. I’d like to see the Bills go with some play-action early in the game followed by some middle screens after it. Last year, Buffalo tried to stress the outside of Houston’s defense via the bubble screen, and it flat-out didn’t work. Test Houston’s discipline up front by giving them a lot to look at, and while it’s a very disciplined unit, planting a small seed of doubt in what the guys up front see could give Buffalo’s offense the split-second advantage it needs to break some plays.
DB Jalen Pitre
Houston’s top nickel corner is an excellent player, as evidenced by his four interceptions and 12 pass breakups last season. Similarly to the defensive front, we could have talked about any number of secondary players in what is an excellent Houston secondary—shoutouts here to Derek Stingley Jr., Kamari Lassiter, Calen Bullock, and Reed Blankenship—but Buffalo’s offensive strength is in the middle of the field. Pitre is a bigger slot corner, standing at 6’ and 200 lbs., but the Bills have weapons in Dalton Kincaid, Khalil Shakir, and Dawson Knox who should be able to win in that area of the field. At least, if I’m designing the passing attack, I’m trying to feed those players rather than continuing to hammer those All Pro and Pro Bowl players Houston has at other spots in the secondary. I’d try to move DJ Moore into the slot, as well, to see if I could force some favorable matchups his way. Pitre was inactive last year when these two teams played, but I think he’s going to be a big part of the contest on Sunday.
