Last weekend’s resounding 3-0 victory over Nottingham Forest carried Everton to the heady heights of seventh in the Premier League table, after 15 games. The team’s fourth win from five has spirits high,
encouraging many fans to dream of what-may-be this season, with the January transfer window fast approaching, and with it, an opportunity to plug the noticeable gaps in the squad, which could yet undermine a potential push for European qualification.
Such thoughts are mere speculation at this stage of the campaign, but there’s no reason for the Blues to be inherently limited in their ambitions, even if their next two games possess the potential to derail momentum. In a couple of weeks, the Toffees welcome league leaders Arsenal to Hill Dickinson Stadium, but first up is a trip south to face Chelsea at Stamford Bridge — a place they’ve not won at since 1994.
Form
The Londoners showed improvement in their first campaign under Enzo Maresca, finishing fourth and achieving Champions League qualification. Big spenders in the transfer market under owners BlueCo, €339m was invested in new players over the summer, with Brighton forward João Pedro (€63.7m) the oldest, at 23 — in line with the club’s recruitment policy. Other additions to gain meaningful playing time are wingers Alejandro Garnacho (€46.2m, Manchester United), the 18-year-old Estêvão (€45m, Palmeiras) and Jamie Gittens (€56m, Dortmund), as well as former Everton striker target Liam Delap (€35.5m, Ipswich). Another big-money signing, teenage Ajax fullback Jorrell Hato, has barely featured as yet.
A reason that Chelsea are able to spend so lavishly is their ability to recoup sizable fees for outgoing talent, either from their productive academy, or on quickly turning around young players who they’ve bought and decided to move on. Heading out the door in the summer was winger Noni Madueke (€56m, Arsenal), attackers Christopher Nkunku (€37m, Milan) and João Félix (€30m, Al-Nassr), goalkeeper Djordje Petrovic (€28.9m, Bournemouth), striker Nicolas Jackson (€16.5m loan, Bayern), midfielder Carney Chukwuemeka (€20m, Dortmund), as well as defensive midfielder Lesley Ugochukwu (€28.7m) and Armando Broja (€23m), both to Burnley. All told, the club generated a staggering €332.3m in sales — almost breaking even.
It’s been an interesting season so far for the West London outfit. With two games left to play in the UCL group stages, they are in 13th spot, with work to do if they are to avoid a playoff to progress to the knockout stages proper, but face what should be a routine EFL Cup Quarter-final against League One side Cardiff City next Tuesday. In the Premier League, they are in a solid position, in fifth, on 25 points — one more than the Toffees. They’ve been a little inconsistent, registering good wins over Liverpool, Tottenham and drawing against Arsenal, but losing at home to Sunderland, and looking bad in away defeats against Man United and Leeds. After being defeated 2-1 by Atalanta in midweek, they’ve failed to win in four leading to today’s match.
Style of Play
Maresca is an adherent of Pep Guardiola’s ball-control principles, and sticks mostly to a 4-2-3-1 formation, though he will occasionally tweak it to a 4-3-3. He likes to use inverted fullbacks and to isolate his pacy wingers against the opposition fullbacks. The team can look good in spots, but can also frustrate the home fans with too much low-tempo probing, which necessarily involves a lot of ball-retention and sideways passing.
Today’s hosts rank second in possession, with 59%, with a 86.3% pass competition rate. Only 8.9% of their passes are long. They generate 13.9 attempts per 90 minutes, and have scored 25 goals from an xG of 24.7, including nine from set-pieces (ranking only behind the Gunners). Chelsea allow a stingy 10.0 efforts per 90 (third), and have conceded a mere 15 goals, outperforming an xGA of 18.7.
Team Assessment
Robert Sanchez, often criticised as a weak link in the team, is performing competently this term, no more, no less. Malo Gusto will likely line up at right back, with Marc Cucarella nailed on on the left. Chelsea have had problems fielding a regular starting duo at centre half, but Wesley Fofana has been passed fit and will probably partner Trevor Chalobah.
The hosts have a fantastic midfield, but Romeo Lavia is again struggling with fitness issues and has been ruled out, along with the suspended Moises Caicedo; the latter is one of the team’s key players. Right back Reece James has been used in midfield this term, and this figures to be the case again. Enzo Fernández has filled in for the injured Cole Palmer in an advanced position, but with the England man available the Chelsea captain will likely play deeper.
Delap is again injured, so Pedro will lead the line once more, although he’s not a genuine centre forward, but more of a supporting striker by nature. The hosts possess strong wing options. Garnacho has caught the eye since his move and didn’t start in Italy on Tuesday, so could be preferred on the left. If so, then Pedro Neto, who the Argentine replaced against Atalanta, and who is Chelsea’s leading league scorer, with five goals, will line up on the right.
Prediction
Everton are in fine form, but their record at Stamford Bridge is beyond appalling and this is another ground at which David Moyes has failed to win at, though that same dismal record at Old Trafford was finally erased a few weeks ago. The Blues are going to beat Chelsea there at some point in the future, so why not today? The Pensioners are a good side, as any will be that’s spent so heavily in recent years, but they can look disjointed and unconvincing at times, and often struggle to keep key players fit.
Fortunately for them, Palmer is back, but the playmaker has only 232 league minutes under his belt this term and cannot be in top condition. Caicedo will be a huge miss: especially so, considering the talented Lavia’s awful injury record since his move from Southampton, and whilst Fernández is an outstanding footballer, he lacks the Ecuadorian’s defensive qualities. They have fast wingers, but no true striker, and the defence is not one which you’d expect from a club who’ve spent such vast sums over the past few years. It’s capable, but no more than that.
The Blues have Idrissa Gueye and Tim Iroegbunam back from suspension, bolstering Moyes’ midfield options, if only for this game in the case of the Senegalese, who will depart for AFCON along with Iliman Ndiaye afterwards. Gueye is certain to be in the starting team, and Carlos Alcaraz will be the man to drop out, with Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall pushed back up behind Thierno Barry. James Garner will stay in midfield, and Jake O’Brien at right back; the Irishman will be sorely tested, as the hosts’ wingers are all fast and agile.
Moyes will be aware of Chelsea’s pace in attack, so I see the visitors sitting fairly deep, and inviting the hosts on, with the intention of striking in transition. I do expect the Blues to occasionally try to press the Londoners high, with the intention of forcing errors, and capitalizing, but mostly they’ll sit in a disciplined shape, and attack Chelsea’s possession in the middle third. Everton lack speed in general, but do have players who can carry the ball well on the counter. This is a game that the Toffees can win, but I think it’ll be a tightly fought draw.
Score: Chelsea 1-1 Everton
Statistics provided courtesy of transfermarkt.com, fbref.com and whoscored.com
