Thursday notes:
- GOING FOR FIVE: The Cubs have a chance tonight to notch a fifth consecutive victory, something they have done only once before all season, back on March 31-April 5, when they swept three games against the Athletics at Sacramento, then won their first two games of the year at home against the Padres. The Cubs have won four in a row three times since then: May 25-28, before losing to the Reds, 6-2; July 1-4, before losing to the Cardinals, 8-6; and July 12-19, before losing to the Red Sox, 6-1. Each loss came at home. (Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)
- LEADING AND TRAILING: On Aug. 21, the Cubs fell behind the Brewers, 2-1, in the second inning and lost, 4-1. They have played 24 games since then. On Sept. 6, at home against the Nationals, the Cubs tied the score but never led. Two days later, at Atlanta, they trailed for good after the Braves scored their first run. In each of the 22 other games, the Cubs held the lead at some point. They are 15-9 in all 24 games.
- MAGIC NUMBER: The Cubs’ magic number to clinch the top wild-card spot over the Padres is 5, after the Mets helped the Cubs out by defeating the Padres this afternoon. Thus if the Cubs go 5-5 in their 10 remaining games, they’ll host the wild-card series regardless of what the Padres do. If for any reason a tiebreaker is needed, it will work this way. The Cubs and Padres split their season series, so the tiebreaker between them is the record within the team’s division. The Padres are 29-20 vs. NL West teams with three games remaining (three vs. D-backs this weekend at home). The Cubs are 27-18 vs. NL Central teams with seven games remaining (four vs. Reds on the road, three vs. Cardinals at home). If the teams are still tied after that, the next tiebreaker is the team’s record against other teams in their own league.
- THE NICO FILES: Nico Hoerner is on a 12-game hitting streak in which he is batting .458/.519/.667 (22-for-48) with five doubles, a triple, a home run, five RBI, five stolen bases, six walks and 13 runs scored. Nico’s .303 BA now trails Trea Turner for the NL lead by just two points.
Cubs lineup:
Reds lineup:
Colin Rea, RHP vs. Hunter Greene, RHP
Here’s an interesting split.
Colin Rea as starter: 25 starts, 130.2 innings, 4.68 ERA, 1.362 WHIP
Colin Rea as reliever: 5 appearances, 16 innings, 0.56 ERA, 0.875 WHIP
Okay, so the reliever numbers are a pretty small sample size. Still — Rea has pitched better twice this year when used with an opener. Personally, I’d keep doing
that.
That’s especially true when you see his numbers vs. the Reds: two starts, 10.2 innings, 10.13 ERA, 2.063 WHIP, four home runs. Yikes. All we can do is hope for better tonight.
Hunter Greene has been very, very good this year and he strikes out a LOT of guys — a 31.6 percent strikeout rate. So the Cubs should do their best to try to put the ball in play, as his walk rate is also low.
Greene missed two months with a groin strain. Before that the Cubs did make him work hard in a start May 23 in Cincinnati — 83 pitches in four innings. Pete Crow-Armstrong homered off him.
Something like that would be useful tonight.
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Today’s game is on Fox-TV (regional — coverage map). A reminder that if you subscribe to MLB.TV or MLB Extra Innings, you can watch this game via those services even if the game is not on the Fox affiliate in your market. Fox announcers: Adam Amin, A.J. Pierzynski and Adam Wainwright.
Here is the complete MLB.com live streaming page for today.
Baseball-reference.com game preview
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The 2025 Game Thread procedure will be identical to last year’s.
You’ll find the game preview posted separately on the front page two hours before game time (90 minutes for some early day games following night games).
At the same time, a StoryStream containing the preview will also post on the front page, titled “Cubs vs. (Team) (Day of week/date) game threads.” It will contain every post related to that particular game, including the First Pitch Thread and the overflow thread, as well as the recap when it’s published. The recap will also live on the front page as a separate post.
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Discuss amongst yourselves.
