According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, which has now been updated for Week 4’s action, the Green Bay Packers have played the 31st schedule in the NFL through four games — the second-easiest schedule in the league so far, only behind the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs. Moving forward, they’ll have the second-hardest schedule in the league from Weeks 5 to 18 — per FPI.
Here is how ESPN explains FPI:
The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor
of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily.
Below are the games the Packers have played so far:
- Week 1: @ MIN (4-0)
- Week 2: @ NYJ (1-3)
- Week 3: vs. ATL (1-2)
- Week 4: @ TB (0-4)
The only team with a winning record that they’ve played so far is Minnesota, the first NFL team to start 4-0 without scoring a touchdown in two of those games since the 1934 Detroit Lions. (With that being said, I do think the Jets are a little underrated, and there was a noticeable difference for the Falcons when Michael Penix Jr. was under center for the team.)
Moving forward, here is the Packers’ schedule:
- Week 5: vs. CHI (3-1)
- Week 6: vs. DAL (2-2)
- Week 7: @ DET (2-2)
- Week 8: vs. CAR (2-2)
- Week 9: @ NE (2-2)
- Week 10: vs. MIN (4-0)
- Week 11: BYE week
- Week 12: @ LAR (2-2)
- Week 13: @ NO (1-2)
- Week 14: vs. BUF (3-1)
- Week 15: vs. MIA (0-4)
- Week 16: @ CHI (3-1)
- Week 17: vs. HOU (0-4)
- Week 18: vs. DET (2-2)
The only sub-.500 teams left on the Packers’ schedule right now are the Saints in Week 13 (New Orleans hasn’t played in Week 4, and could be 2-2 by the end of Monday’s action), the Dolphins in Week 14 and the Texans in Week 17. For perspective, 0-4 Houston has been able to keep games closer this year, as they have a -25 point differential compared to the 2-2 Packers’ -32 point differential. The Saints only have a -2 point differential, despite being 1-2.
The only team left on Green Bay’s schedule with a worse point differential than the Packers is the 0-4 Dolphins, who have by far the worst mark in the league at -55.
We all knew the Packers got a good break to start the season coming in, considering their injury situation. What we didn’t fully see was the team going just 2-2 to start the year and suffering four season-ending injuries in the first four weeks of 2026. Green Bay needs to buckle down for the rest of the regular season, as the schedule difficulty is only going to get tougher.
