Michigan State returns to Spartan Stadium for the first time in a month to take on a resilient UCLA team. This probably looked like a very winnable game for MSU just a couple weeks ago. UCLA was 0-4 with brutal losses to Utah, at UNLV, and New Mexico. This was all before the Bruins dropped a tough Big Ten opener at Northwestern, 17-14.
UCLA fired second year head coach DeShaun Foster after the New Mexico game and named Tim Skipper interim head coach. Skipper was previously a special assistant to Foster.
Prior to UCLA, Skipper was interim head coach at Fresno State. Before that, he served in various assistant roles at UNLV, Colorado State, Central Michigan, and Florida.
After dropping his UCLA debut at Northwestern, Skipper and Bruins shocked the college football world by upsetting Penn State at the Rose Bowl last week. UCLA led 27-7 at halftime and hung on in the second half for a 42-37 victory.
From Penn State’s perspective, they were coming off a very deflating loss at home to Oregon and may have taken some of the disappointment from that game across the country to UCLA. Still, no one gave UCLA a chance and they got the job done. The Bruins will likely still be riding high coming into East Lansing to face a Michigan State team going in the opposite direction and desperately needing a win.
After going 3-0 in non-conference games, MSU has dropped its first two Big Ten contests at USC and Nebraska. In their 3-2 start, Michigan State has been unable to put together a consistent game in all three phases.
On the offensive side of the ball, MSU got off to a decent start against Western Michigan before disappearing in the second half. Then, Aidan Chiles and the offense had solid outings against Boston College, Youngstown State, and at USC before struggling again at Nebraska. Michigan State’s offensive line had no answers for Nebraska’s pass rush and Chiles endured one of his worst games as a Spartan.
Defensively, the Spartans looked strong against Western but then things went downhill. MSU was unable to contain Boston College’s passing game, gave up way too many points and yards to FCS Youngstown State, and then got absolutely shredded on the ground and through the air at USC.
The Spartan defense showed some progress against Nebraska though. MSU had 5 sacks and limited the Huskers to 261 total yards, including just 67 on the ground. The defense bailed the team out a few times when Nebraska started with excellent field position on the Spartans’ side of the 50 yard line. Unfortunately, some defensive gaffes helped Nebraska get back in the game, including giving up a 59 yard catch and run touchdown midway through the fourth quarter. Still, the 38 points Nebraska put up is somewhat misleading for the MSU defense as 10 of those points were gifted by the Spartan special teams.
After being mostly excellent through the first four games, Michigan State’s special teams suffered a meltdown against Nebraska. The Huskers returned a blocked punt for a touchdown and added a field goal after MSU misjudged a kickoff in the wind and fumbled it away.
So, with MSU mired in frustration and UCLA coming back to life, what will happen Saturday for Homecoming at Spartan Stadium? Let’s look at the matchups.
UCLA Offense vs. MSU Defense
UCLA is led by redshirt sophomore quarterback Nico Iamaleava, who transferred to the Bruins from Tennessee after helping the Volunteers reach the college football playoff last year. Through 5 games, Iamaleava is completing 66% of his passes and averages 190 pass yards per game. He’s thrown for 6 touchdowns and 3 interceptions so far. Iamaleava’s top target is sophomore Kwazi Gilmer who has 24 catches for 304 yards (60.8 per game) and 2 touchdowns.
The quarterback run game has also been huge for UCLA with Iamaleava leading the Bruins in rushing with 66.4 yards per game on 5.5 yards per carry and 4 total touchdowns.
Iamaleava did most of his passing damage in the first half against Penn State before finishing 17-24 for 166 yards and 2 TD’s. He added 128 yards on 16 carries and 3 more TD’s on the ground.
Before the Penn State game, however, UCLA has struggled on offense. Of their 13 total touchdowns, 5 came against the Nittany Lions. Prior to PSU, UCLA’s largest point total was 23 in the loss to New Mexico. Even with the 42 point effort against Penn State, UCLA is only averaging 19.8 points per game on the season.
It seems like if the Spartan defense can contain Iamaleava, then they can really limit the UCLA offense. Michigan State was fairly effective for most of the game against Nebraska’s Dylan Raiola so the Spartans will certainly look to improve upon that effort against Iamaleava and UCLA.
MSU Offense vs. UCLA Defense
Getting Aidan Chiles back on track has to be a huge goal for the Spartans this week. MSU will hopefully look to target and take advantage of talented playmakers Nick Marsh and Omari Kelly after being largely unable to get the ball to their receivers against Nebraska.
There should be opportunities against UCLA. The Bruins are giving up 32.4 points and nearly 400 yards per game. UCLA really struggles against the run in allowing 217.6 yards per game but they do rank 26th overall in pass defense, giving up only 175 yards per game.
The second level of UCLA’s defense has led the way for the Bruins so far. Senior linebacker JonJon Vaughns leads the Big Ten in tackles with nearly 11 per game while sophomore Isaiah Chisom averages 10 tackles per game.
Establishing a respectable run game and getting Chiles going with quick throws to Marsh and Kelly, giving the receivers a chance to break tackles and run after the catch, might be a key against this UCLA defense.
Conclusion
Michigan State absolutely has to win this game. Getting to the midway point at 4-2 is generally what was expected at the beginning of the season and there is a challenging, but reasonable, path to bowl eligibility.
Lose to UCLA, however, and frustrations could easily boil over. It’s tough to see a path to a bowl game and frustrated fans might turn their attention to basketball and hockey.
We’re just getting to halfway through the season and it seems like there have already been a number of “referendum” games for MSU (to borrow a term used by Graham Couch of Lansing State Journal and Chris Solari of the Detroit Free Press). The Spartans absolutely had to beat Boston College. Few expected a win at USC but, despite the struggles on defense, MSU showed fight that seemed to be lacking last season. Then, coming off a bye week, the team came out looking ill-prepared at Nebraska, only to come back to take a lead before imploding in the fourth quarter.
The Nebraska game feels like a giveaway, like Boston College last season. Now, MSU faces a must win for their Homecoming game. They need to put Nebraska behind them. They need to provide some hope for the rest of the season. They need to have solid, consistent play in all three phases for the first time since . . . last year against Iowa? The coaching staff needs to have the team prepared with a solid game plan and be able to make adjustments as the game goes on.
Coaches perhaps live in their own bubble during the season and you wonder how much of the noise from outside they hear. But Jonathan Smith and staff have to be feeling some pressure here.
Let’s hope they can channel it into a win and some momentum going into the second half of the season.
Go Green.
