In years past, we’ve concluded our AL West Previews with the opponents of the Seattle Mariners, letting the 40 in 40 series, various analysis pieces, and our general body of work as a staff stand in for a traditional season preview that, by Opening Day, can feel almost remedial. I cannot stress strongly enough the value of those previews and encourage you to peruse them and return to them over the year.
But readers and commenters have lamented the absence of a formal preview breakdown, and so, for the first
time in… a while, the Lookout Landing Season Preview for the Seattle Mariners begins with the bats.
The Sultan of Squat
It’s fitting to ponder the reigning AL West champions from the lineup first. 2025’s M’s position players toted the torch for the ballclub, picking up the slack on the heels of consecutive shortfall seasons largely centered on park-aided pitching excellence. Nothing could’ve been clearer, however, than Cal Raleigh’s 60 homer campaign. Fresh off a five-year extension inked last off-season, the financially-secure backstop delivered one of the greatest seasons by a catcher in baseball history, no qualifier needed. He helmed an injury-riddled pitching staff, anchored a lineup that saw hot streaks rise and fall around him, and came just shy of the first Mariners MVP since Ichiro in 2001.
While his stand-offish moment with Randy Arozarena at the World Baseball Classic raised eyebrows, the players and club seem settled on the matter with genuine-seeming apologies in both directions. More pertinent is whether Raleigh can approach his astounding .247/.359/.589 line, at a 161 wRC+ with 14 steals in 18 attempts and 9.1 fWAR overall. Raleigh made 121 starts in the regular season, plus all 12 of the M’s playoff tilts, totaling over 1,180 innings be-crouched (second-most in MLB to JT Realmuto). With staggering durability, the best catcher in baseball opened new business opportunities for All-Star Auto Glass to insure hot air balloons, seaplanes, and low-flying UFOs, while also taking a beating behind the plate every night to keep M’s pitchers in the game.
It’s fair to expect some regression, but there wasn’t much fluky about Raleigh’s performance. He barreled the ball at an extraordinarily high rate, aligned his swings from both sides of the plate, and instilled a level of deservedly-fearful avoidant pitching from opponents that allow him to walk to first frequently. Expect more greatness from the Big Dumper in 2026.
Outfield of Stars or Scrubs?
Seattle’s outfield features two former Rookies of the Year and 2025 All-Stars. Their fourth outfielder had a 141 wRC+ in half a year of play, and their fifth posted back-to-back 2+ win seasons before an injury-decimated 2025. So is the Mariners outfield the club’s strongest unit, or its most uncertain?
Julio Rodríguez anchors this group with dependability. 2025 saw Julio cut his strikeout rate significantly while managing more power and essentially the same (extremely high) hard hit rate as a season before. In some ways, it was a different preparation of the same dish, as his xwOBA of .348 and xBA of .274 were literally identical to 2024. But the 25 year old Dominican star shortened his swing just a shade, hitting his stride in the second half after a serviceable first half stabilized by an expansionist policy in the No Fly Zone. Beyond that, most impressive from Julio last year was his capacity to post – he led the American League in plate appearances and received just two full games off. His ferocious performance in the ALCS (1.007 OPS) was a fitting cap to his campaign, and he’ll be asked to cover significant ground once more in 2026.
Randy Arozarena and a combination of Luke Raley and Victor Robles will take the primary roles of the corner spots. Just a single PA shy of Julio, Arozarena was a similarly ferrous individual for the M’s, pacing them crucially in the early months. His chilly back half was aggravating, but nothing physically stood amiss and he seems ready for a strong campaign ahead of a likely trip to free agency next winter. Raley and Robles are a star-crossed pair, both blessed with dynamite athleticism and fueled by exemplary work ethics and unflinching commitment to make every play. Their bodies cannot always fully contain – nor protect – their indefatigable spirits, but as long as the quasi-platoon is healthy they have the capacity to provide in every aspect of the game.
Behind this quartet, with the hoped presumption of Dominic Canzone being politely asked to accept the designation of “hitter” without greater scope (ditto for Rob Refsnyder), Seattle lacks an immediate next option. Seattle’s infield is intriguing and agitating by its combination of high-profile prospects like Cole Young, Colt Emerson, and Michael Arroyo, as well as still-novel depth options like Ryan Bliss and Leo Rivas. Their outfield – at least at the big-league adjacent level – lacks similar potency. Arroyo’s outfield seasoning is a response to this, but it’s early days. If Brennen Davis can carry his scorching spring into the Pacific Coast League with health, he’ll likely find his name called given the inconsistent availability of the Raley-Robles duo in years past.
Seattle projects for the best catcher and center fielder in baseball. The rest of the lineup is mostly in the middle, but what this M’s club has in spades at the season’s outset is a decency of depth. If Raley misses time, Canzone moves up. J.P. Crawford’s delayed start only means shifting in more Leo Rivas and Cole Young, who’ve both shown promise. This lineup can afford to cycle and rest itself, as the bench bats – other than a dubious running back of Mitch Garver to back up the Big Dumper – are highly competent. This should be one of the best position player groups in baseball. Playing at T-Mobile Park will always suppress pure offensive output, but it’s reasonable to expect one of the best offenses in the game to be the one lifting the trident.
