The Guardians have ended the first week of September and there is still a chance for them to make the playoffs. Let’s look at what would have to happen for Cleveland to sneak into October’s dance.
First, I want to state that I am not moving off my position that this Guardians team is a bad baseball team and I do not expect them to make the playoffs. They are 72-70 but their expected record is 66-76 and they have a -48 run differential. Their team wRC+ is 28th in MLB at 84 wRC+ and they are missing
their best reliever and one of their top five starting pitcher options (who would also probably be good in a pen role as needed) due to a gambling investigation. There isn’t a logical reason to think Cleveland will catch the teams ahead of them and make the playoffs, or, that in the event that miracle happens, the Guardians will advance past a quick wildcard round exit.
With that said, the reason we watch baseball and sports, in general, is because we don’t know the outcome and strange things happen. The Buffalo Bills certainly proved that last night in the NFL and the 2023 Diamondbacks seemed dead and buried but came back to not only make the playoffs but the World Series. You never know. And, I’ll certainly be rooting hard for the Guardians to prove me wrong, again. I will always choose to watch my team play playoff baseball over not getting to watch my team play playoff baseball.
To begin our examination of what will need to happen for the Guardians to make the playoffs, let’s look at the race for the AL’s third wildcard spot:
Seattle – 75-68
Texas – 74-70 – 1.5 games back
Kansas City – 73-70 – 2 games back
Cleveland – 72-70 – 2.5 games back
Tampa Bay – 71-72 – 4 games back
Now, let’s look at each team’s remaining schedule:
Seattle: Home vs. Cardinals (3), Home vs. Angels (4), At Royals (3), At Astros (3), Home vs. Rockies (3), and Home vs. Dodgers (3)
Texas: Home vs. Brewers (3), At Mets (3), At Astros (3), Home vs. Marlins (3), Home vs. Twins (3), at Guardians (3)
Kansas City: At Guardians (4), At Phillies (3), Home vs. Mariners (3), Home vs. Blue Jays (3), At the Angels (3), At the Athletics (3)
Cleveland: Home vs. Royals (4), Home vs. White Sox (3), At Tigers (3), At Twins (4), Home vs. Tigers (3), Home vs. Rangers (3)
Tampa Bay: At White Sox (3), At Cubs (3), Home vs. Blue Jays (4), Home vs. Red Sox (3), At Orioles (3), At Blue Jays (3).
The Mariners play seven games against teams who are under .500 and three against a .500 team, Texas plays six games against teams under .500, the Royals play six games against teams under .500, the Guardians play seven games against teams under .500, and the Rays play six games against teams under .500. The Mariners and Guardians both have thirteen remaining home games, the Rangers have nine, the Rays have seven, and the Royals have six. The teams on this list for whom homefield advantage has made the biggest difference this season are the Mariners (34-41 on the road) and the Rangers (30-42) on the road. So, it’s likely a big deal that the Mariners will play 13 of their 19 remaining games at home, much to the Guardians’ dismay. One thing that MAY help the Guardians is that they are the only team on this list who play a good team that may have little to nothing to play for when they see them in Detroit; all other +.500 teams on these schedules should still be in a race for a division or wildcard. So, it is possible that Cleveland will see Detroit get some of their usual hitters or pitchers some rest… but not a sure thing, at all.
However, the Guardians will need to finish one game better than the Mariners because the Mariners won the season series against Cleveland 4-2, so they own the tiebreaker. Currently, the Rangers have a 3-0 lead on the Guardians in their season series, and the Guardians have a 5-4 game advantage on the Royals so far this season. Cleveland has won the season series vs. the Rays.
If Cleveland goes 20-0, they will make the playoffs. Let’s just get that out of the way. They’d also break their 2017 record for MLB’s longest winning streak, which would be pretty awesome. But, sadly, quite unlikely. So, I’d like to start with an optimistic yet realistic assessment of what Seattle will have to do to open the door for Cleveland. Let’s assume the Cardinals take one game against the Mariners and the Angels find a way to split the series, then Seattle loses two to the Royals and two to the Astros, then end up winning four of the final six games against the Dodgers and Rockies at home (however you want to split those up). Seattle goes 10-9 to end the season and finishes 85-77. So, Cleveland needs to end the season with 86 wins to end ahead of the Mariners, meaning they need to go 14-6.
In order to make sure they can be ahead of the other teams vying for this final spot, Cleveland needs to at LEAST win the series with the Royals and win the series against the Rangers. That is five wins, and they would need to go 9-4 vs the White Sox, Twins, and Tigers (x2). All this is quite improbable, but not impossible. The problem is still Kansas City and Texas, but Cleveland has a say about that. IF the Guardians can take 3 of 4 from the Royals, they would only need the Royals to do no better than 11-4 to outlast them, which is more than doable with their remaining schedule. Take 2 of 3 from the Rangers, and the Rangers have to go no better than 10-5, which could simply involve losing series to the Brewers, Mets and Astros, then, even if they sweep the Marlins and Twins they would only go 9-6. I am not particularly concerned with Tampa Bay here, as their remaining schedule is challenging enough and the Guardians holding the tiebreaker is a big enough deal that it shouldn’t be an issue if the Guardians can somehow miraculously go 14-6 over their remaining 20 games.
As you can see, this series against the Royals and the final series against the Rangers are looming large for the Guardians. If the Royals series goes poorly, then the Rangers series likely won’t matter. But, if the Guardians DO find a way to win this series against Kansas City, then it’s time to sit up and pay attention the rest of the way, doing some scoreboard watching every night. If the Guardians find a way to make this interesting until the very end, I’d guess it will mean Jose Ramirez, Kyle Manzardo and Steven Kwan are carrying the team, and that Daniel Schneemann was a reliable sub, but I’d also expect to hear that two of the young, inconsistent bats (Brayan Rocchio, Bo Naylor, Angel Martinez, Gabriel Arias, George Valera, Nolan Jones or CJ Kayfus) went on an encouraging tear down the stretch. It will also require a bullpen STRETCHED to the breaking point sans Emmanuel Clase and Nic Enright to hold up to the workload and high leverage situations asked of it, and the young starting pitching to hold steady in their recent run of success.
Let’s see what happens! Hopefully, at the very least, games will be meaningful for Cleveland into the last week of the season.
