George Lombard Jr. and Elmer Rodríguez are typically regarded as the two best prospects on the Yankees, but the next two are pretty much interchangeable. Some believe No.3 belongs to Carlos Lagrange and No.4 to shortstop Dax Kilby; others have them in the reverse order. In any case, the point stands: Kilby, last year’s first-round pick, is a top-five organizational prospect and a top-100 in all baseball per multiple outlets.
If Lombard is a glove-first prospect with developing offensive skills, Kilby
is quite the opposite: the hit tool is impressive, and while he is not a disaster at shortstop, questions about his ability to make all the throws from the position remain.
2025 Stats (Single-A Tampa Tarpons): 18 games, 81 PA, .353/.457/.441 (159 wRC+), 0 HR, 9 RBI, 16 SB, 13.6 K%, 16 BB%.
So, what’s in store for Kilby in 2026? Nope, not the big leagues, if that’s what you are thinking. The most likely answer is a months-long date with High-A pitching. There might be a quick stop at Low-A to open the year, though.
If the Yankees are aggressive, they will have Kilby spend most of the season in High-A Hudson Valley and see if he can consistently produce against more polished pitchers. If his 2025 performance is any indication, he most likely can.
Last year, the Yankees sent Kilby to the Low-A Tampa Tarpons, and he hit .353 there over 81 trips to the plate, with an elite .457 OBP and a .441 slugging percentage. He had more walks (13) than strikeouts (11) and added 16 stolen bases in just 18 games. His 159 wRC+ tells you everything you need to know: he was a mismatch for Low-A pitchers.
Kilby has the tools to keep advancing. MLB Pipeline wrote the following about him and his offensive gifts:
“Kilby employs a quick and relatively compact left-handed stroke that stays in the hitting zone for a long time. He makes advanced swing decisions, rarely misses fastballs, and focuses on driving balls from gap to gap. While he stands out most with his hitting ability, he also has the bat speed and projectable strength to develop plus raw power. Add in plus speed and an aggressive nature on the basepaths, and Kilby has 20-20 potential.”
With 100 games played, he could push for 30 or 40 steals if he stays aggressive on the basepaths. There is still work to do to tap into his power, though.
In the 18 games Kilby played last year, he didn’t homer. He did have two doubles and two triples, a sign that the gap power is there and the potential for some of those balls to clear the fence remains, but he seems to be a swing change away from becoming a 20-homer guy, as many predict. He had a healthy 28.1 percent line drive rate per FanGraphs, but his 54.4 percent ground ball rate will have to come down, and his 17.5 percent fly ball rate will need to increase if he wants some balls to leave the yard.
Still, the 19-year-old Kilby might not be done adding to his 6-foot-2, 190-pound frame. More power should be on the way if he works for it.
The 2026 campaign will be a pivotal one for his development. If he dominates High-A as he did in Single-A, there is a chance we see him in Double-A Somerset at some point in the season.
Kilby is, without a doubt, one of the best and most exciting prospects on the farm, but he hasn’t scratched his ceiling yet. He probably won’t see the majors this year, but if he’s brought along slowly and the organization lets him develop at his own pace, he could become a franchise cornerstone in 2027 or 2028.
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