I tried my best, I really did. I didn’t want to get mad about the CFP rankings, but then ESPN went ahead and did it. They got to me. It’s bad enough that right now I and every other YouTube TV customer
cannot even watch the dumb show. Let’s take a look at where the Big 12 stands. Texas Tech has 1 loss and is ranked 6th overall. That’s a pretty unimpeachable resume and they will be in the playoff if they win the last 2 regular season games. BYU is ranked 12th with 1 loss, on the road to the committee’s 6th ranked team. BYU’s best win is at home against 13th ranked Utah. Directly ahead of BYU are a pair of 2 loss SEC teams, Texas and Oklahoma, getting the absolute benefit of the doubt for not being in the Big 12 anymore. Texas has a neutral site win over Oklahoma and a home win against 14th ranked Vanderbilt, but they lost to a 3-6 Florida team. Is a 2nd “quality win” enough to outweigh a really bad loss? Apparently it is if you are in the SEC. Oklahoma’s best win is probably a home game against #18 Michigan, not as strong as BYU’s best win. Neither of their losses are objectionable, but they have 2 of them.
What exactly is the logic of ranking BYU behind these 2 teams? Outside of juicing tv ratings for the playoff, I don’t see one. Utah at 13th in the poll has no way of moving above BYU due to the head-to-head loss, and no way of moving ahead of Texas or OU. 2 loss Notre Dame is practically a playoff lock at this point. 2 loss Miami is also getting thrust back into at-large consideration despite the ACC having a terrible season. There’s a world where the ACC gets multiple bids and the Big 12 doesn’t. That made me more mad than it should have. Just for good measure, Iowa has 3 losses and 1 single win over a team with a winning record and is ranked 21st on … vibes I guess? Anyway, Big 12 fans really need Alabama and Georgia to win this week. The CFP is such a detriment to this sport. Betting a hundred games on a bye week with no stakes is the way to go. Onto Week 12 in the Big 12.
THE GAMES
Arizona (6-3, 3-3) at #25 Cincinnati (7-2, 5-1)
Kickoff: 11:00am | TV: FS1 | The Line: Cincinnati -6 | O/U: 56.5
I love these 2 offenses. I love Cincy being refocused after getting blown out, then having a bye week. Arizona is 6-3, and that Iowa State blowout in September is aging wonderfully. There will be plenty of yards and points in this one.
Pick: Over 56.5
Kansas State (4-5, 3-3) at Oklahoma State (1-8, 0-6)
Kickoff: 11:00am | TV: ESPNU | The Line: Kansas State -19.5 | O/U: 50.5
Wash, rinse, repeat with Ok State. Just take the over every week and hope they score 14-17 points to make it happen. Just wait, the one time they show up is going to be when Iowa State visits in a few weeks.
Pick: Over 50.5
West Virginia (4-6, 2-5) at Arizona State (6-3, 4-2)
Kickoff: 12:00pm | TV: TNT | The Line: Arizona State -11.5 | O/U: 47.5
Scotty Fox Jr. is a great West Virginia QB name, I have to say. With him as the starting QB, the Mountaineers have covered 3 straight games. Most importantly, they’ve scored 74 points in the last 2 weeks. I’m not sure if they can win this game or even keep it close, but this total is too low for a red hot offense.
Pick: Over 47.5
Central Florida (4-5, 1-5) at #6 Texas Tech (9-1, 6-1)
Kickoff: 2:30pm | TV: FOX | The Line: Texas Tech -23.5 | O/U: 48.5
Texas Tech plays the same game every single week, and I keep losing by betting against them every week. I’d like to not do that again. There’s a clear discrepancy between these teams, and Tech has the CFP in their sight. No letdown happening here.
Pick: Texas Tech -23.5
#13 Utah (7-2, 4-2) at Baylor (5-4, 3-3)
Kickoff: 6:00pm | TV: ESPN2 | The Line: Utah -8.5 | O/U: 60.5
What a weird week it’s been for Baylor. You almost forget that they’re used to this, but things have been scandal free in Waco for a few years. Let’s just say this is Dave Aranda’s last stand, and his offense will put up points. This is what they do. They don’t win games, but they can play anyone within one score.
Pick: Baylor +8.5
TCU (6-3, 3-3) at #12 BYU (8-1, 5-1)
Kickoff: 9:15pm | TV: ESPN | The Line: BYU -3.5 | O/U: 51.5
Yeah, I’m back to chasing BYU. Iowa State ruined TCU’s Big 12 championship chances, so they’re playing pure spoiler here. Josh Hoover and those receivers will move the ball and score enough to keep this close.
Pick: TCU +3.5
BEST BET AROUND THE COUNTRY
Notre Dame -12.5 at Pittsburgh
Pat Narduzzi said it best. This game means nothing to Pitt. But it does mean a lot to Notre Dame. They need to keep winning, and winning convincingly to make the CFP. They won’t have any problems scoring, and they’ve actually made some defensive strides in the 2nd half of the year. Irish roll in this one.
Enjoy the games!
Season Record: 49-42-1 (+2.8 units)
