The Braves’ headlong dash through a sea of contenders is nearly over. They enjoyed an off day on Thursday, they have three against the Astros in Houston, and then a couple of series against non-contenders and that’s it, the regular season is done.
While the Braves’ position is almost assured (they’ve nearly clinched a playoff berth and they could theoretically fall out of the division lead but aren’t very likely to), the same cannot be said for the Astros.
At 77-76, the Astros are a game ahead of the Rangers
in the division race. The Rangers are also two games back of last Wild Card spot (where the AL Central leaders are currently tied), so it is possible that the AL playoff field involves just the AL West winner, as the final spot goes to the AL Central runner-up.
The Braves have three with the Astros. They are only favored (and even then, barely so) in the first game of the series.
The Astros then end the season on a road trip, with two in Seattle and four in Sacramento. By game-by-game odds, they’ll win 4-6 of their remaining nine games.
The Rangers have a weekend set at home with the Blue Jays, continue the homestand against the Mets, and then end the season in Minnesota. By game-by-game odds, they’re also in 4-6 of nine territory, but their odds are slightly better.
So, what the Braves do against the Astros can really tip the scales one way or another. If the Braves sweep, that could really mess up the Astros. If the Braves get swept, that could put the Rangers in the drivers seat. A non-sweep probably won’t have as much of an impact, but could still matter.
The Astros have a lot more to play for at this point, but the Braves can hopefully extract at least a win in three games.
