I saw a lot of Godfather references in various comment sections around the Mizzou internet following the conclusion of the game against Florida… “just when I thought I was out…”
If you want my full thoughts
on the impact of the game, I’d suggest checking out yesterday’s Pourover column, as that was more about what it could mean from a macro-view. I’m going to do my best to make this post strictly about the game play.
What I thought happened, strictly during this game, was Missouri better exploited its advantages than the Gators exploited theirs. Florida is a good, but not great, team this year. They have some elite front court players, possibly multiple first round picks, but it’s clear their guard play is a weak spot. Boogie Fland hasn’t quite worked out like they hoped, Xaivian Lee disappears against power conference foes, and Todd Golden doesn’t seem to trust his younger players other than Urban Klavzar.
Dennis Gates thought he could exploit the Gator guards, and out physical them, and he was right.
The Gators are a very good defensive team, and they’re an elite rebounding team. They’re 2nd in the country in Offensive Rebound rate, and 4th in Defensive Rebounding rate. Much of that comes from the fact they play Thomas Haugh at the wing, and pair him with Reuben Chinyelu and Alex Condon. But they struggle shooting the ball, and the guards don’t generate enough offense.
This all sets up how a struggling, imperfect, Missouri team was able to build a lead, and sustain it even when the Gators clamped down on the Tigers offense in the half court.
TEAM STATS
On the season Florida collects almost 44% of their misses, and Missouri held them 11% below that season average. The Gators also rebound 76.6% of the available defensive rebounds, so Missouri’s 31.4% ORB% was around 8% better than the Gators normally give up. So while Mizzou lost the expected rebounding advantage by 1, they really negated one of Florida’s biggest strengths by playing equal. Or close to it. The raw rebounding numbers were even. In the last two years the Gators have lost or tied the rebounding battle 9 times, they’ve only lost two of those games… well now three.
This was also the second highest free throw rate for the Tigers on the season. They attempted 30 free throws, and yes several of those were in the last few minutes with a lead, but they shot 14 in the first half and 16 in the second.
- Another big difference was at the rim, Statbroadcast has the Gators for 11-22 on layups, while Missouri was 14-19. Florida is typically very good around the rim, but Missouri made things more difficult.
- Matt Harris outlined Mizzou’s 3-point FG defense, and there are definitely times where it’s lacking. But the Tigers wanted the Gators to shoot threes in this game, and they did. It started poorly with UF hitting their first three, and then 5 of their first 9. But then they made just two of their next 18. Mizzou’s zone is there to keep the ball high and force teams to move the ball around the perimeter, and the Gators obliged taking a lot of threes which is a weakness for them this season. It also takes away their strength which is at the rim.
Make your free throws and this win is a lot more comfortable. The Tigers were just 8-16 from the line in the second half which is one of the things that left the door open and allowed the Gators a 3FGA to win the game. Fortunately for Mizzou, the Gators missed again.
INDIVIDUAL STATS
Trifecta: Anthony Robinson II, Jacob Crews, Trent Pierce
On the season: Mark Mitchell 27, Jacob Crews 19, Anthony Robinson 16, Jayden Stone 7, Jevon Porter 5, Shawn Phillips Jr. 4, Sebastian Mack 3, Trent Pierce 1, T.O. Barrett 1, Annor Boateng 1
Welcome back Trent Pierce! A driving basket to take back the lead after the Gators had surged ahead. And a follow up three (on the move) to put them up 4. Plus five rebounds. He was the badly needed medicine for this lineup. Missouri really is a different team with Pierce and Jayden Stone. Stone impressed a lot in the early going before his broken finger(s?) sidelined him. For the first 5 minutes there wasn’t a Tiger who scored other than Stone. He only finished with 9 points, but his first 8 were as important as anything.
The rest of the transfer class had a pretty tough night, Phillips had a -1.46 game score, Sebastian Mack was -1.97, and Northweather was -2.16. Missing shots, fouling, turning the ball over.
This Anthony Robinson II is the Anthony Robinson we’ve all wanted to see. The rebounding numbers were above and beyond, but I think some of that was because the bigs were really focusing on taking out the UF rebounders, which allowed the guards to step in. Ant had 8, Jayden Stone had 6, Crews had 4, Trent Pierce had 5. Meanwhile Mark Mitchell had 1, Shawn Phillips had 3, Luke Northweather had 1, and Nicholas Randall had two.
But Robinson was the difference maker in the game, banked in three and everything. Missouri attacked the UF guards, and Robinson took advantage in the pick and roll.
Mizzou didn’t get good games from Philips and Northweather, they paired down minus from TO Barrett and didn’t even sub in Annor Boateng. Even Mark Mitchell was just okay. All that and they beat a top 25 team at home.
We’re able to see the versatility of Jacob Crews, who didn’t make a three after only taking one attempt. Crews seemed content to drag his smaller defenders to the rim and take advantage of his size. But he was good as well.
I don’t know how sustainable that movement is, with Robinson and Mitchell playing 35 minutes and a manufactured offense tailored explicitly against the opponent. Getting a few opportune buckets from your bigs, but otherwise not much. Missouri needs Ant and Mark to be good nearly every night. Then they’ll need to get something from 2-3 other guys.
I did think they’d play better once they got home. Now the task becomes taking your style of play on the road, where the next two games occur. Mizzou goes to Lexington to play a Kentucky team who is a mess right now. Then to Oxford to take on another mess, in the Ole Miss Rebels. But playing at home works for a lot of teams. And the Tigers aren’t good enough so far this year to think they can waltz into either arena and whip up on the home team.
Just one play at a time guys. Go be as good as you can be.
I’ve moved the glossary to a static page at RockM+ to reduce the size of the bottom of this post.
So if you’re looking for what any of these stats mean, Check out the Glossary!
In attempting to update Study Hall, I’ve moved away from Touches/Possession and moving into the Rates a little more. This is a little experimental so if there’s something you’d like to see let me know and I’ll see if there’s an easy visual way to present it.
If there’s something you’d like to see more of an explanation on, drop a note and let me know!
