Illinois beat Northwestern by 40 points on Wednesday night, drubbing the ‘Cats the whole way for a lopsided 84-44 victory.
Illinois’ win was the second largest margin of victory of any meeting between the two teams, slotting in behind 42-point Illini wins in 1995 and 1943. Additionally, the Illini win gave Brad Underwood’s side its first sweep of Northwestern since the 2021-2022 season, following three seasons where the teams split their two matchups.
Though historically the Illini have dominated against
Northwestern — winning 146 of 192 games — the ‘Cats were starting to become more competitive in recent seasons. After trailing Illinois by 67 in KenPom.com’s analytical rankings in the 2021-22 season, Northwestern closed the gap the next three seasons, slotting 28 behind the Illini in 2023, 24 in 2024 and 39 in 2025.
In head-to-head matchups, Northwestern also found increased success spanning from 2022-2024. Just a little bit over a year ago, Northwestern knocked off Illinois in a jam-packed Welsh-Ryan Arena for its second straight overtime win over the Illini. The win marked just the third time since 1967 that the ‘Cats had won consecutive games against Illinois.
In fact, the ‘Cats started the 2023-24 season 10-3, proving to be capable of competing with almost any team in the country. Major injuries to star seniors Brooks Barnhizer and Jalen Leach eventually derailed Northwestern’s season, but there was no mistaking that at their best, the ‘Cats were capable of being a competitive Big Ten team.
After three years of success, and two tournament appearances, Northwestern’s 40-point loss at the State Farm Center punctuated its major fall this season from “bubblicious” to Big Ten bottom-feeder. Meanwhile, the Illini, who have had six straight 20-win seasons, seem to be headed in the opposite direction, poised to win 30+ games and compete for a national title.
“They are a better team than us this year,” said a defeated Chris Collins at the postgame presser in Champaign. “They’re a vastly superior team to us … they have better players, they’re better coached.”
Coach Collins is right. Illinois is a “vastly superior” team to Northwestern this season, and those watching Northwestern and Illinois with a close eye should have been able to predict the disparity.
During Northwestern’s successful three-year stretch, Collins relied on a four-year player development model. The ‘Cats have never been able to bring in top-of-the-line recruiting classes, but Collins has developed three-stars like Boo Buie, Pete Nance and Nick Martinelli to become standout Big Ten players.
Collins’ peak years in Evanston have been built off the backs of these four-year Northwestern players, who stuck it out with the program after seeing limited playing time their freshman and sophomore seasons. The ‘Cats had success with this talent development template, and they were able to stay competitive despite bringing in low-ranked transfer classes with little to no four-star or five-star talents.
Since NIL was instituted in college basketball in 2021, Collins’ model has struggled to survive. Unlike the Matt Nicholsons and Pete Nances of a past era, three-star talents such as Luke Hunger, Blake Barkley and Julian Roper II have been quick to jump ship after not seeing impactful minutes in their initial seasons.
Though these players have had mixed career success outside of Evanston, Collins never had the chance to mold and develop these talents like he has been able to with players in the past. Players like Barkley, who has averaged 14.0 points and 5.5 rebounds per game this season for East Tennessee State as a redshirt sophomore, may have had the potential to become an important player for Northwestern as an upperclassman. Instead, in an NIL era that has incentivized players to seek out alternative opportunities after not seeing playing time, ‘Cats fans will never know what Barkley could’ve done as a four-year senior.
Furthermore, Northwestern has struggled in the transfer portal. To a certain extent, Collins’ hands may be tied, working with a smaller NIL budget and lower-quality facilities than many of the Big Ten’s giants. But, no matter the placement of the blame, the ‘Cats have had trouble finding impact players in the portal, with the performance of this year’s class of Jayden Reid, Max Green and Arrinten Page having particularly hard-felt shortcomings.
With Barnhizer, Nicholson, Ty Berry and Leach graduating last spring and disappointing performances from transfer talents, Collins has been without, for the first time, trustworthy upperclassmen in his rotations. As a result, the ‘Cats have resorted to playing a young starting lineup this season in Big Ten play, after playing older, veteran groups during their successful 2022-24 stretch (see graph below).
Collins was slow to adapt his program to the NIL era. Underwood was not.
Similarly to Northwestern, Illinois has seen some of its top underclassmen prospects transfer for higher NIL pay and new opportunity in recent years. Skyy Clark transferred to UCLA — he has started every game this season for the Bruins. Jayden Epps transferred to Georgetown and is now averaging 15.3 points per game for Mississippi State. Amani Hansberry left for West Virginia and is now Virginia Tech’s star player, leading the team in points, rebounds and blocks.
However, Underwood has been able to keep up with the modern era, offsetting what he loses in the portal by bringing in major talent of his own. Illinois has been a national leader in the transfer portal since 2023, bringing in 12 four-stars over the past four years.
In recent years, Northwestern has actually done better, relative to Illinois, with composite recruiting classes. However, Underwood has consistently stomped the ‘Cats in the transfer portal, as can be seen in the graph below:
In the modern NIL era, Illinois’ success in the portal has become a more sustainable model for program accomplishment than Northwestern’s system of four-year player development. Illinois 84-44 win on Wednesday proved that, as the Illini’s transfer talents like Andrej Stojaković and Ben Humrichous overwhelmed Northwestern’s undeveloped freshmen.
The ‘Cats’ 40-point loss to Underwood’s squad should be a wake-up call to Collins and the entire Northwestern athletic department. Illinois is “vastly superior” to Northwestern this year because it has been able to keep up with the changes of the NIL era. The four-year development model is no longer sustainable.
If Northwestern wants to get back to competing with Illinois — as it did from 2022-24 — it has to find success in the portal.
