UFC Paris is less than 24 hours away …
It all goes down this weekend (Sat., Sept. 6, 2025) inside Accor Arena in Paris, France. In the main event, Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Middleweights collide as Nassourdine Imavov vs. Caio Borralho fight for a potential 185-pound title shot against Khamzat Chimaev.
We have a weekly series at MMAmania.com called “Weekend Lock,” where we share one bet that we predict will slap in “The City of Light” when the chaotic dust settles. We also want to hear what
our readers think (that’s you!), so please tell us your most confident UFC Paris betting lock in the comments section below (full UFC Paris odds here).
Last week’s recap: Our UFC Shanghai lock cashed as Sergei Pavlovich vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta went over 1.5 Rounds, in a pretty forgettable fight … meaning we are on a roll again.
Let’s keep on, keeping on below:
Buried on UFC Paris’ “Prelims” undercard is long-time Octagon veteran, Brad Tavares, who is looking to break the all-time wins record in the Middleweight division at the expense of Poland’s Robert Bryczek.
This week, I’m locking in Tavares to, “Win by Decision” at -115 odds.
Here’s why:
Tavares is one of the most experienced and durable fighters on the promotion’s roster. A 28-fight UFC veteran, he’s shared the cage with the likes of Israel Adesanya, Yoel Romero and Robert Whittaker, among many others. Through it all, he’s maintained a reputation as one of the toughest outs in the division. He’s only been stopped three times in nearly 15 years with the promotion — a testament to his durability, defense and composure under fire.
But, here’s the kicker: Tavares rarely finishes opponents.
Indeed, only five of his 20 career wins have come inside the distance, with his last stoppage dating all the way back in 2018. His game is built on consistency — disciplined kickboxing, steady volume, sharp leg kicks and the ability to stick to a gameplan for three rounds. That profile makes “by decision” the smart angle, especially given his history of winning on the scorecards.
Bryczek, meanwhile, is a dangerous striker with legitimate knockout power, but his disastrous UFC debut cannot be forgotten. He lost to Ihor Potieria — who only won two UFC fights in eight fights. Oh, and the Polish fighter is coming off a long layoff, too.
While Bryczek is explosive, his style leaves openings for a composed technician like Tavares, who excels at nullifying wild brawlers with distance management and smart shot selection. If Tavares can drag him into a slower, methodical fight, the Hawaiian’s veteran savvy should shine over 15 minutes.
What could go wrong?
Bryczek hits like a truck. Tavares has been durable for most of his career, but at 36 years old, the mileage is undeniable. If Bryczek lands clean early, he has the power to end things before the judges are even a factor.
Still, given Tavares’ track record of decision wins and his ability to stay composed against heavy hitters, “Tavares by decision” at -115 looks like a strong value play for UFC Paris.
For what it’s worth, this X/Twitter user is also riding with Tavares:
- Brad Tavares To Win By KO/TKO/DQ: +400
- Brad Tavares To Win By Submission: +2500
- Brad Tavares To Win By Decision: -115
- Draw: +5000
- Robert Bryczek To Win By KO/TKO/DQ: +400
- Robert Bryczek To Win By Submission: +2500
- Robert Bryczek To Win By Decision: +500
LIVE! Stream UFC Paris On ESPN+
Don’t miss a single second of face-punching action!
Where to Buy:
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Paris fight card, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 12 p.m. ET, before the main card start time at 3 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).
To checkout the latest and greatest UFC Paris: “Imavov vs. Borralho” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.
