Over the past two seasons, the Illini have posted 10 and nine wins, respectively. After falling to Duke and Purdue, hopes of another nine-win season felt as elusive as the Road Runner escaping Wile E. Coyote.
Then came the upset over Oregon, followed by a road victory at Maryland. Now, sitting at 5-3 with four games remaining — all of which seem winnable — the Illini’s prospects look promising.
Sure, it may be overly optimistic (some might say I’m looking through orange-colored glasses), but I genuinely
believe Illinois has a chance to accomplish something special. With Katin Houser back leading the offense and a defense showing signs of improvement over the last two weeks, there are plenty of positives heading into the final stretch of the season.
Illinois’ offense has plenty of weapons
On offense, Aidan Laughery has emerged as a reliable feature back, racking up 560 yards on 89 carries (6.3 yards per carry). With Ca’Lil Valentine sidelined, Jordan Anderson and Javari Barnett have stepped in and shown real promise. Barnett also scored a key touchdown in the Maryland game.
Collin Dixon has been drawing plenty of attention, posting 781 yards on 60 catches and 10 touchdowns. Hudson Clemente has been a reliable target, hauling in 32 passes for 453 yards. Ty Robinson has contributed 12 receptions for 164 yards and three scores, while freshman Brayden Trimble is developing into a solid secondary option. Trimble also recorded his first career touchdown against Maryland.
The defense is showing signs of improvement
Defensively, it’s been a tough season, but there are encouraging signs of a turnaround lately.
The secondary, anchored by Matthew Bailey, the team’s leader in tackles, and Juice Clarke, the leader in passes defended, has been solid. The linebacker group has also shown improvement since the start of the season.
Ismael Kante has recorded 30 tackles and 2.5 tackles for loss over his last four games, while James Kruetz has totaled 36 tackles, 2.0 tackles for loss and one sack during that same span.
The defensive front has also been generating more pressure, tallying 15 tackles for loss and four sacks over the last three games. The Illini are starting to make more plays on the ball, too, with five forced fumbles, three fumble recoveries and an interception during that stretch.
Breaking down the final four games
I know you might be thinking, “Is he not looking at the schedule?” I am, and there are still some tough games ahead. But the upside is that Illinois only needs to win three of its final four games to reach eight regular-season victories.
Here’s how the remaining schedule looks:
November 6: Nebraska (Home)
The Huskers have underperformed all season, especially in close games. In their last three outings against Indiana, Oregon and Washington, they held fourth-quarter leads but ultimately lost each time.
Their offense has struggled, averaging 13.6 points per game while allowing 18. They’ve also been outscored 39-10 in the fourth quarter. I’d say Illinois has a 75% chance of winning this one.
November 13: UCLA (Away)
Friday night at UCLA presents a much tougher challenge. The Bruins are one of only three undefeated teams in college football, although they’re missing their starting quarterback.
Still, it will take a maximum effort for Illinois to pull off the upset. I think the Illini can compete and keep this one within two scores.
November 21: Iowa (Home)
Iowa’s defense is consistently strong, while its offense can be shaky — although the Hawkeyes did put up 30 points against Wisconsin.
Based on the Oregon game, Illinois’ defense should match up well with Iowa. The real question is whether the Illini offense can find a way to score against the Hawkeyes’ defense. The kicking game could ultimately be decisive, so I like Illinois’ chances of edging out a win by a field goal.
November 28: Northwestern (Away)
Northwestern has a challenging stretch of its own, with Iowa at home followed by road games against Ohio State and Minnesota before facing Illinois.
The Wildcats could be worn down by that point, giving Illinois a better-than-60% chance of coming away with a victory.
What would another nine-win season mean?
Beating Nebraska, Iowa and Northwestern would put Illinois at eight regular-season wins. If the Illini can then win their bowl game, that would give them nine victories for the third consecutive season — something the program has never accomplished.
Even if Illinois finishes with eight wins, it would mark the program’s first eight-win seasons in three consecutive years since 1902-04.
The opportunity is there. Now it’s up to the Illini to take advantage of it.
Let me know what you think in the comments!
