The Red Storm are a third of the way to the mountain-top following their electric Second Round victory over Kansas, in which Dylan Darling scored the game-winner at the buzzer. Now, their climb will become as challenging as it gets. Awaiting them in their first Sweet Sixteen appearance in 27 years is the number one overall seed Duke Blue Devils (34-2), who are strong, yet not prohibitive favorites by seven points.
The Athletic currently gives St. John’s a 10% chance of reaching its first Final Four
in 41 years, about the same probability that Cal Baptist had of defeating Kansas. It’s possible, but the odds are long.
While St. John’s is a top-25 team, all signs point to Duke ending the Red Storm’s season in Washington, D.C., on Friday (7:10 p.m., CBS). Simple math shows that 1-seeds hold a 39-11 record over 5-seeds in the NCAA Tournament. Even if the Johnnies play amazingly, the Blue Devils are superior in almost every facet. They have a top-ten adjusted offense, the number-one defense in the country, rank in the top ten in both offensive and defensive rebound rates, and, oh yeah, they have the future Naismith Player of the Year in Cameron Boozer.
That all may be too much to handle for St. John’s, especially if they fall into foul trouble trying to stop Boozer, slip into another scoring drought as they’re prone to do, or get beaten up on the glass as they did in the final three minutes against Kansas, when they allowed four offensive rebounds and six extra points off those clutch possessions.
Yet, March Madness is never orderly. It is not a fair playoff system in which teams have the sample size of a seven-game series to decide who’s better. Forty minutes is not enough time to balance out the chaos of a sudden-death matchup. Sometimes, a team gets hot at the right time, like we are seeing with this St. John’s team, and the margins might not be as wide as we think.
When I last broached the Red Storm’s tournament ceiling, the Red Storm’s BartTorvik rating dating back to January slotted them among the ten best teams in the country since January 4, the start of their run of winning 21 of their last 22 games. Dating back to the start of March, St. John’s is the third-best team in the country in Torvik rating, three spots ahead of Duke. That stretch also includes games when Duke had a healthy Caleb Foster, who has missed his last five contests due to a fractured foot. Head coach Jon Scheyer signaled Foster isn’t totally ruled out for Friday night, despite the fact that his type of injury requires a month of recovery, at minimum.
Assuming Foster doesn’t have a Wolverine-esque healing factor, the Blue Devils will be without their best outside scoring threat, who hits 40.2% from three on the season. Since Foster went down, the Blue Devils are shooting just 30% from deep, ranking 148th in the country in that time. Against 16-seed Siena, they were a miserable 5-of-26 on deep-range looks. St. John’s is coincidentally one spot ahead of the Blue Devils in three-point percentage during that stretch. Duke is also dealing with a less-than-100-percent Patrick Ngongba, who returned from a foot injury in the Second Round versus TCU and had as many points as personal fouls (4).
The window to an upset over Duke is larger than one would expect. They haven’t been as convincing in their recent wins, escaping by one point over 18-win Florida State in the ACC Tournament, and they might not have survived facing Siena if newly-minted Syracuse head coach Gerry McNamara didn’t play all of his starters for forty minutes. If the Johnnies can frustrate the Blue Devils’ offense and keep it a low-scoring affair, they can swing the game in their favor with just one play.
St. John’s has shown it has the closers who can come through in big moments. Zuby Ejiofor was in control in the paint, scoring 18 points and pulling down nine rebounds against Big 12 defensive player of the year Flory Bidunga, and craftily picked a steal off Darryn Peterson to halt Kansas’s progress during their late rally. Bryce Hopkins is suddenly transforming into a serious three-point threat. He’s 8-of-17 from range over his last three played from deep, and he swished a half-dozen treys against Kansas, including a clutch long-range bomb to give the Johnnies a four-point lead late in Sunday’s contest. It could even be Ian Jackson to make magic happen, who is becoming an explosive weapon in transition with his buttery smooth ball-handling and touch at the rim.
If they pull it off on Friday, the Red Storm match up even better against the two remaining teams in the East Region. Michigan State can be leaky, surrendering 80 or more points in its final three games heading into the tournament, including 87 to offensive juggernaut Rutgers at home, and can be turnover-prone, which would be music to the ears of a press-heavy Red Storm defense. Rick Pitino has the formula to beat Connecticut. St. John’s is 4-1 versus their rivals up north over the last two seasons, and won two of three meetings this season. The Red Storm are capable of taking a potential fourth meeting if they can run the Huskies off the three-point line and make Silas Demary, Jr. uncomfortable on the ball as they did in the Big East championship.
The Red Storm’s chances of being the last team standing in the East Region look slim, but if the last two months and change have indicated anything, it’s to count them out at your own peril.
