As we all search for meaning in the midst of this dismal Kansas City Royals season, more and more attention gets placed on Jac Caglianone. It’s not hard to understand why; the former first round pick had a disappointing rookie season, but has made serious progress this year, posting a .258/.326/.458 slash line. He blasted his 20th home run of the season against Tarik Skubal, continuing to show that he can be more than just a platoon hitter. In a season full of darkness, Caglianone’s performance is one of the few
bright spots and reasons to hope that next year will actually be a return to contention for Kansas City.
The southpaw is on a heater at the plate; since July 30, Cags is hitting .396 with a 230 wRC+. He’s smashed nine extra base hits in those 12 games: four doubles and five home runs. That selective endpoint is not completely random. Vinnie Pasquantino went on the IL on July 29, which has allowed Caglianone to mostly play first base in his absence. In those twelve games, Caglianone has played first base in ten games, right field in one game and split time between first base and right field in the other game.
Caglianone has been below-average, yet still playable out in right field. His arm strength is good, his range is not good and to my untrained scouting eyes he still looks like a first baseman moonlighting as an outfielder. I haven’t met many people who think his long term future is as an outfielder, largely due to his size. Eventually, Caglianone is going to move to either first base or DH, whether he is with the Royals or another team.
I understood and supported why the Royals started with Pasquantino at first base and Caglianone in right field; I assume Vinnie would look Schwarber-like if he was forced to take an outfield spot, and while the fences are in this season at Kauffman, there’s still a lot of grass to cover. With Pasquantino hurt again and his future with the Royals looking murkier by the day, two questions have crept into my mind. First, is Caglianone a better hitter at first base? Second and related to the first, should Jac finish out the remainder of this lost season playing first base?
We are in the land of small sample sizes when we split Caglianone’s plate appearances by position; heading into Tuesday’s game, Cags has logged 113 plate appearances as a first baseman and 281 plate appearances as a right fielder. The differences between him hitting as an outfielder versus as a first baseman could be statistical variance, or it could be a coincidence of timing. It’s possible that Caglianone was independently working on his swing and that his hot streak just happens to correlate with him playing first base. Anyone who speaks in absolutes about this is probably over their skis.
Still, it is interesting to note two differences about Caglianone as a hitter that have correlated with what position he plays in the field. First, Caglianone has been more aggressive as a hitter when he has played first base. Second, and possibly related, Caglianone has hit for more power when he’s on the infield. First, let’s look at some tables comparing Cags swing percentages as a first baseman compared to him as a right fielder.
Contact percentage stabilizes around 100 plate appearances as a hitter, and swing percentage stabilizes around 50 plate appearances, so I feel more comfortable saying that this difference is likely something to do with what position he plays. Cags has a 9% difference in Swing%, and a 5% difference in Contact%. For some reason, and we will guess at reasons later in the article, the lefty has been more aggressive at the plate and made more contact when he’s played first base.
Caglianone has also hit for more power when he’s played first base. He’s hit 11 home runs as a first baseman compared nine home runs as a right fielder despite more than twice as many plate appearances in the outfield. The Statcast expected numbers also speak to a real difference in results.
Again, it’s hard to know whether Caglianone’s power surge is caused by him playing first base or just correlated in timing. There is at least a possible explanation for why this could be the case; playing outfield is more tiring for Caglianone than playing first base is, and it could be more mentally challenging as well. That takes energy away from Cags, which makes him a more selective hitter and saps some of his ability to reach his power.
Maikel Garcia has talked about how playing outfield (along with adjusting to the pitch clock) was tiring for him at the beginning of the season. Once he locked into a permanent spot at third base, he felt like he was able to hit better and play better defense at a more comfortable position for him. It seems reasonable to assume the same could be true for Caglianone, although it also seems reasonable to think that this is all just noise with small samples and over a longer period of time the two batting numbers will converge.
The unknown here is why I would like to see the Royals play Cags at first base to finish out the season. It wouldn’t definitely prove the argument one way or another, but it would give the team a lot more data to work with in preparation for contention 2027. Vinnie can DH, Salvador Perez can spell Vinnie and Cags occasionally and split time with Jensen at the plate. Salvy doesn’t need full-time plate appearances to finish out the season, which is a conversation for a different article.
If the Royals are going to contend next season, they would be really helped by having Caglianone the potential 40-HR masher versus Caglianone the merely above average hitter. It’s possible that his position has nothing to do with his results, but the small sample numbers suggest there’s a difference between what position he plays and how he approaches his at bats. I think the Royals could find more meaning in a lost season if they see if there is something to these early results.
