The Cardinals want pitching, the Guardians want hitting – is there a match between these small market titans?
I have written about three potential trades for the Guardians and Marlins and for the Guardians and the Pirates,
respectively. But, if you asked me which team I’d be most excited to wake up January 1st and hear the Guardians had made a trade with, I would absolutely pick the St. Louis Cardinals. This is because they have three proven major league hitting talents whom they SHOULD make available this offseason. The Cardinals’ now have a Assistant GM who is VERY familiar with the Cleveland system in Rob Cerfolio. Does that help or hurt the potential of a deal? Time will tell, but here are the three Cardinals I covet the most and a prospective trade for each:
Trade One: Cardinals trade Willson Contreras, 33 year-old RHH 1B/C (owed $36.5M through 2027 with a club option for 2028) to the Guardians for Logan Allen, LHP and Josh Hartle, LHP
Analysis: Important note: this trade relies on Contreras agreeing to a trade, as he has a full no-trade clause through 2026 (in 2027 he can only refuse a trade to 10 teams). He indicated he wants to stay in St. Louis but is willing to consider a trade, so he may have to be offered some sort of compensation if he is willing to waive it. In my mind, Contreras (only looking at 1.3 fewer homers per year at Progressive Field) as a career 122 wRC+ hitter with a 140 wRC+ vs. LHP and good looking defensive numbers at first base is the perfect player to provide an edge to the lineup and hit cleanup behind Jose Ramirez. I think his age and the money he is owed make the trade I propose above possible, but I’d be willing to give up more to get him if he is amenable to come here.
Trade Two: Cardinals trade Lars Nootbaar, 28-year old LHH OF (under team control through 2027) to the Guardians for Joey Cantillo, LHP
Analysis: Nootbaar has a career 110 wRC+ with a 20/13 K/BB%. (115 wRC+/97 wRC+ RHP/LHP). He is average to good at each outfield position and his power plays exactly the same at Progressive Field as it has in Busch. Nootbaar could play center which would allow the Guardians to move DeLauter to right field, which should help his chances of staying healthier. The Guardians would still likely need a right-handed hitting bench option who can play center field (free agent Austin Slater, perhaps?). Again, I imagine the Cardinals will try for Messick or Stephen here, but if I were the Guardians I’d push them toward Logan Allen and settle on Joey Cantillo.
Trade Three: Cardinals trade Brendan Donovan, LHH 2B/OF (under team control through 2027) to the Guardians for Logan Allen, LHP, George Valera, LHH OF and Michael Kennedy, RHP.
Analysis: Donovan has a career 119 wRC+ with a 13.5/9 K/BB% (130 wRC+/88 wRC+ RHP/LHP). Donovan is playable at second base, short, third base and left field (left or second are his best spots, defensively). Acquiring him would be a nice way to provide a bridge to Bazzana who would be easy to move to other places on the field as need be. Also, Donovan’s career 40 home runs would be 48 homers if playing at Progressive Field by the numbers. Again, if I am the Guardians, I am pushing for Allen and Valera here who have good, solid value, but probably settling for Cantillo and a decent lower-level prospect like one of their many hitters drafted in 2025 who showed positive signs in Low-A Lynchburg.
While Contreras would be one of the biggest immediate upgrades for the Guardians’ lineup, Donovan or Nootbaar would also represent reliable value for the team with the bats if they were able to land either. Here’s hoping Cleveland and old friend Rob Cerfolio have a lot of conversations in the coming weeks.
