Yesterday, our topic of discussion was what is your own worst-case scenario for what the Phillies will do this offseason. Today, we’re going to try and envision a scenario where everything goes right, or at least as right as possible.
Like we mentioned yesterday, the Phillies have their work cut out for them. The free agent market is weak, but the Phillies should have plenty of money to use on it to find whatever upgrades are possible. They will be freeing up close to $40M in dead money with the contracts
of Nick Castellanos and Taijuan Walker alone coming off the books. Add in the likely subtraction of José Alvarado’s $12M and Alec Bohm’s $10M salaries, and the Phillies will likely be around $50M under their 2026 payroll commitments after arbitration. Through all of their faults, the team has yet to waver on its commitment to operating with a payroll around the top five highest in MLB. Until they signal that is no longer the case, you should feel some confidence that they will spend somewhere around or at least equal to the $290M they featured at this season’s end.
The Phillies desperately need upgrades and some new life, but they also have a good core to work with. Cristopher Sánchez and Jesús Luzardo are both ace level starters that are locked up long term. Zack Wheeler is still under contract for one final season. Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber, no matter what you may think of their peak abilities at this stage of their careers, were still top 15 hitters in MLB by OPS this season. The rest of the lineup needs major improvements, but those two are two very good starting points. The bullpen was a mess, but Jhoan Duran was one of the best closers in baseball, and he is still under contract through 2028. You can debate what that group’s ceiling is, but they have a very high floor, provided of course there are no devastating injuries which are admittedly a risk with some of the ages involved. A perfect offseason would involve finding the right additions to raise that floor.
Finally, perhaps the biggest reason for optimism heading into next season is the resurgence of Andrew Painter. the young right hander returned from a demotion to Triple-A in late July and looked like a new pitcher, capping off his season with a tremendous showing out of the bullpen in the postseason. Perhaps Painter isn’t capable of becoming the pitcher he was pre-Tommy John surgery, but he showed enough last season to have one hopeful that he can still be a good piece for the future.
So, what is your best-case scenario for the Phillies this offseason? What free agents would satisfy you? Any particular trades that you’re set on?
