Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Bantamweight standouts Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Mario Bautista will square off this weekend (Sat., Oct. 25, 2025) inside Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates for UFC 321.
It’s easy to see both sides of the Nurmagomedov vs. Merab Dvalishvili conflict. On one hand, Nurmagomedov did take advantage of his family name to rise up the ladder quickly and score big opportunities. On the flip side, he is one of the very best Bantamweights in the world, and he definitely
gave Dvalishvili more trouble than most other challengers. The result is we have a clearly elite fighter who hasn’t faced that many really good opponents. Bautista, conversely, has taken the long road to the top. He’s won eight in a row inside the Octagon against increasingly tough opposition, and this is his chance to really lockdown a title shot.
Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
Nurmagomedov vs. Bautista Betting Odds
- Umar Nurmagomedov victory: -650
- Umar Nurmagomedov via TKO/KO/DQ: +800
- Umar Nurmagomedov via submission: +375
- Umar Nurmagomedov via decision: -170
- Mario Bautista victory: +450
- Mario Bautista via TKO/KO/DQ: +2000
- Mario Bautista via submission: +5000
- Mario Bautista via decision: +750
- Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
How Nurmagomedov Wins
Nurmagomedov is very high-level in all facets of the game. On the feet, he’s a powerful kicker with good movement who likes to time opponents with counter combinations. As one would expect, the timing on his takedowns and transitional wrestling are excellent. On the floor, he’s really good at taking the back and finding the strangle.
This is a matchup of very well-rounded Bantamweights, but Nurmagomedov seems to have small edges in all areas. He’s just a little bit sharper on the feet and has more depth to his wrestling attack. Both men are slick once on the canvas, but Nurmagomedov is more likely to be in top position and thus winning those exchanges as well.
Nurmagomedov will have to find success both on the feet and the canvas to win here, and it’s likely to come down to how well he fights off the back foot. Bautista likes to press, and Nurmagomedov likes to work the outside. As the more mobile outside fighter, Nurmagomedov has to make sure his counters are landing with enough snap that the judges are aware who’s actually winning exchanges. Sometimes, the optics make it tricky for the matador to win close rounds.
Fortunately, takedowns help sway the judges as well. A well-timed shot and minute or two of top control will easily turn an otherwise competitive round of kickboxing into a convincing 10-9 scorecard.
How Bautista Wins
Like his opponent, Bautista can do it all. He’s a jiu-jitsu black belt who has mauled several opponents with takedowns and ground strikes, but Bautista has won several of his best wins on the strength of his stand up. At his best, Bautista is blending forward pressure, combination punching, and takedown attempts to make for an overwhelming stream of offense.
As mentioned, Nurmagomedov feels a bit crisper than Bautista in most areas of the game. On the Bautista side of the equation, however, is the simple fact that he blends it all together better than his opponent. Bautista really excels in transitional offense. He sets up his takedowns behind punches extremely well, hits opponents as they move to stand, and finds hard connections anytime they come together in the clinch.
He’s really good at the mixed part of MMA.
To find such success against Nurmagomedov, Bautista has to be aggressive and confident. He still has to shoot for takedowns even if dragging Nurmagomedov down early on is an unlikely goal, because it will allow Bautista to start flowing into other offense. It wasn’t easy, but we saw Dvalishvili slowly put Nurmagomedov into more of a defensively shell over time. Bautista isn’t quite as non-stop as “The Machine,” but he could accomplish the same thing if able to land heavier shots and keep his foot on the gas.
Nurmagomedov vs. Bautista Prediction
It’s really hard to pick against Nurmagomedov.
Since Day One, he’s been a complete product and stellar athlete, and at 29 years of age, there’s reason to believe he’s only going to come back better after his Dvalishvili loss. The biggest standout difference here is likely to be speed, and if Nurmagomedov is able to land his range kicks first, he’s likely to be able to time his counter punches and reactive takedowns just as well.
Maybe Bautista starts dialing it in and picks up the pace by round three, but he’ll be in the hole by the time that happens.
Prediction: Nurmagomedov via decision
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