The New England Patriots are heading into the back-nine of their season against the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday. The game will be a matchup between two teams trending in opposite directions: the 6-2 Patriots have
won five games in a row, whereas the Falcons are coming off back-to-back losses to drop them to 3-4 on the year.
Unsurprisingly, the team of head coach Mike Vrabel is entering the contest as favorites. Will they live up to their status, though? Our head-to-head comparisons broken down by separate areas of the game suggests that they will.
Passing game
Patriots pass offense vs. Falcons pass defense: The Falcons have a fairly aggressive defense, relying heavily on the blitz to throw opponents off. However, they will be going against a quarterback that has eaten opposing defenses alive in such situations: Drake Maye has gone 55-of-72 for 580 yards with six touchdowns and no interceptions as well as eight sacks against defenses bringing extra pressure this season. Then again, he has also been quite good when going against regular four-man rushes. Add it all up, and you get a player — and a passing game as a whole — that should present its fair share of challenges to Atlanta’s defense this week. | Edge: Patriots
Patriots pass defense vs. Falcons pass offense: Getting Michael Penix Jr. back in the lineup is good news for Atlanta’s pass offense, which looked bad being run by Kirk Cousins last week. However, the sophomore QB will be going up against a defense that has — outside of some slow starts — performed at a high level lately and should continue doing so even after trading former starters Kyle Dugger and Keion White. The biggest question for New England will be its matchup against tight end Kyle Pitts, who has been one of Penix Jr’s favorite targets this year. The Patriots had some issues with Cleveland’s Harold Fannin Jr. a week ago, and cannot afford similar breakdowns against an offense that is top-to-bottom better than the Browns’. | Edge: Patriots
Running game
Patriots rushing offense vs. Falcons run defense: Last week’s game against Cleveland was largely a step in the right direction for the Patriots’ run game, but the unit suffered a setback this week: Rhamondre Stevenson will be out on Sunday with a toe injury. This means that the fate of New England’s rushing offense will lie in the hands of rookie TreVeyon Henderson, recent practice squad call-up Terrell Jennings and whoever else the team will elevate to the game day roster. Atlanta’s run defense has not performed particularly well this season, but the Patriots’ ability to move the ball on the ground is TBD with Stevenson out. | Edge: Falcons
Patriots run defense vs. Falcons rushing offense: Bijan Robinson is one of the most productive running backs in football this season, and a definitive problem for any defense due to his ability to perform in any situation. That said, when it comes to purely running the ball, the Patriots defense should have an advantage over Atlanta’s offense. Frankly, the unit has been spectacular this season when it comes to stopping opposing running backs. While Robinson is as good as any back the group has faced this season, New England should be able to limit the damage he can do by winning its battles at the point of attack and preventing him from getting into space. | Edge: Patriots
Special teams
The Patriots are set to meet an old friend again on Sunday, kicker Parker Romo who was with them this summer before eventually being released in favor of rookie Andy Borregales. Both have missed three kicks so far this season, but Borregales has a higher total hit rate (92% to 87%) and has been perfect in six straight games. With the exception of punt return, which is clearly slanted toward New England, the rest of the matchups project as fairly equal. As a whole, however, this still gives the group of coordinator Jeremy Springer an on-paper advantage for this week’s game. | Edge: Patriots
Coaching
As evidenced by their record and the development of their players, the Patriots coaching staff seems to have pushed mostly the right buttons so far this season. The Falcons, in that regard, have ground to make up. And while they do have some experience on their staff as well — starting with head coach Raheem Morris — the track record both in 2025 and as a whole favors New England. That doesn’t mean the individual battles, especially that between Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and Falcons defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich, will not be fun to watch, though. | Edge: Patriots
Verdict
The Patriots may not have faced the most daunting schedule so far this season, but they have done what any good team does: not play down to the level of the opposition, but instead stay on course and in the end keep winning. With New England having advantages in most areas and also playing at home, Sunday’s game against Atlanta should be more of the same.
