Since last we spoke, the Diamondbacks have been one of the hottest teams in baseball. What’s going right for them?
Wesley: Eduardo Rodriguez, Zac Gallen, Jonathan Loáisiga, Corbin Carroll, Ildemaro Vargas, Jose Fernandez, and the unfortunately now injured Lawlar and Moreno have all been key drivers of this early success, in my opinion.
Makakilo: Two observations:
- From 5 to 11 April, the Diamondbacks scored 5.2 runs per game, which is more than a full run higher than their average from last season.
- From 5 to 11 April, the Diamondbacks relievers had 9 shutdowns. Since the start of this season, they had 22 shutdowns, which was tied with the Pirates for the second most in the Majors.
Spencer: They’ve been playing good ball against teams scuffling to start. In the best case scenario, this means we will hold tie breakers if necessary late in the season.
James: The pitching has been digging deep to find a bit of quality and the defense
has been bailing out some mistake pitches, especially for Sewald. The team has also looked like one that is never convinced they are out of a game, even down four, so they keep pushing.
One thing that isn’t is Ketel Marte and Geraldo Perdomo. What do they need to change to get the bats woken up?
Wesley: Ketel homered in Saturday’s loss, so hopefully that means he’ll start heating up. As I commented recently, the league is clearly taking Perdomo a little more seriously now that he’s established himself as a much more credible offensive threat. Now Gerry needs to adjust to the league. Simple as that. RIBBIT. (Side Note: the linked song could easily be reworked to be about Gerry, or used a walk up song)
Makakilo: Perdomo. This season his 98.6% zone contact percentage is a career high, while his 7.9% whiffs is near a career low. Let’s look at two strengths from last season: “Perdomo’s batting strengths include squared-up per swing and launch angle sweet spot percentage.” – Makakilo
- His squared-up percentage improved from 32.3% to 38.4%.
- His launch angle sweet spot percentage fell from 36.2% to 27.9%.
Geraldo Perdomo is doing nearly everything excellently. Perhaps if he could improve his launch angle sweet spot percentage, that would allow him to sustain his breakout from last season.
Spencer: I think the cold is affecting Marte. And Perdomo is playing to his floor which is unfortunate but not entirely surprising. I trust he pushes through it and finds the sweet middle ground.
James: Marte is pressing too hard now. He got off to a slow start, quite possibly due to the colder weather. But once those struggles started to carry on, he started pressing much harder. When batting righty now, he’s taking Paul Bunyan swings at any fastball near the zone. He needs to simplify things and take what they are giving him, even if it is just slapping the ball into open space. Once he starts getting some results, the rest will follow.
Perdomo just needs to not let these struggles get to him. He is still working the counts admirably. That’s his game. He isn’t always going to get the walk or the mistake pitch, especially now that the opposition is keying in on him. But he needs to stay within himself and to continue playing his game while at the plate. The league has adapted. It is time for him to adapt in response, but to not abandon what has gotten him where he is.
The bullpen has actually been decent. Is this sustainable, or is it a bubble waiting to pop?
Wesley: Yes, it is sustainable, but also yes, it’s a bubble waiting to pop. The only reason why I think it might be sustainable is some of those veteran relievers signed to minor league contracts over the winter, are actually showing some promising results initially in Reno.
Makakilo: Two reasons to think it is sustainable:
- After 15 games, the relievers’ innings per game and ERA were about the same as last season (3.47 vs 3.45 Innings per game, and 4.85 vs 4.82 ERA).
- The anticipated return of pitchers (both starters and relievers) from the injured list.
Spencer: Both. Could go either way.
James: The level of results is indeed sustainable. But the performance levels of some of the pitchers, especially Sewald, is likely a bubble waiting to burst. Sewald is getting saves. But he is giving up entirely too much hard contact. Right now, balls bouncing off the top of the wall or finding themselves screaming into a glove that was barely moved are allowing Sewald “success”. As the weather heats up, those balls are going to leave the yard or make it through the infield. The pitching in general needs to start doing better at limiting hard contact. Continuing to allow exit velocities over 100 mph is not a recipe for extended success.
Jo Adell put on a masterclass in home run robbery. In your opinion was it the greatest defensive game ever?
Wesley: I don’t think there is a definitive answer to that question other than “Maybe?” and there’s a few problems with that question. The first problem here is that the data just isn’t there for us to actually compare performances across all of MLB history. At best, we have about 20 years of solid defensive data out of the 150 years of pro baseball’s history. The second problem is that you can’t compare an outfielder’s defensive performance easily against catchers or the other infield positions easily. A shortstop, for example, is going to have so many more defensive opportunities compared to an outfielder. The third and final problem is that some of the stats we have don’t capture the difficulty of robbing a HR. Catch probability doesn’t factor in the height of the wall at all, which is why statistically the Jo Adell game doesn’t look all that impressive when it obviously is impressive. With all that said, I’d say it’s the best defensive performance in a game I’ve seen by an outfielder in the last 25 years.
Makakilo: I’m thrilled to know that the glove, which Jo Adell used in the 3 catches, will go to the Hall of Fame at the end of the season. It gladdens my soul to honor an extraordinary achievement by a player very unlikely to reach the Hall of Fame.
Spencer: It may well be. I tend to be a fan of amazing infield play over outfield, but what he did is incredibly impressive. Great to see.
James: It was certainly among them. I know Stark tried to find an answer and had little luck in finding a solid one. It will certainly go down as one of the greatest ever and likely one of the greatest any of us will see in our lifetimes – until someone else does it next week, just because that’s how fickle baseball can be.
Besides baseball, what is your favorite summertime activity?
Wesley: Being able to enjoy the beautiful night’s sky without freezing my a** off. I’ve conveniently always been more of a night owl, so while southern Arizona gets hot during the day, it’s generally cooler at night as long as you aren’t deep in the Phoenix and Tucson metro areas. I live just southeast of Tucson, where it still gets quite chilly at night even when hitting triple digit temps during the day, while also having some of the darkest skies in Western North America that aren’t in the middle of nowhere.
Makakilo: Play pickleball. I registered for two tournaments (one in April and one in June). Each has random partners assigned in each round, so my expectation is mostly fun.
Spencer: Homemade pizza and movie nights in a backyard. The ideal cookout style yard games, etc. absolute perfection.
James: Saturday dinners with the close friends at my besty’s place. We do various themes and just chill with some adult beverages, good food, good friends, great vibes. Whenever it cools down, we’ll sit around the fire pit instead of the patio table. Just chilling and relaxing. Depending on the weekend, there is likely footy watching involved.
