With the Cubs having added some players to the 40-man roster (which now stands at 34) since our first payroll look this offseason, I thought it was time for another article updating things as they stand as we head into the holiday weeks, where not much action is likely to happen.
Before we get to the numbers and Dep’s analysis, I wanted to take a moment here to cool the atmosphere here a bit.
Some of the reactions to the Cubs’ signing of Tyler Austin last week were, shall we say, a bit over the top.
I had an email discussion with Josh Timmers about this and here’s what he said:
Case in point — people losing their ever-loving minds over the Cubs signing a bench bat for barely over the major league minimum. And all of those thinking that signing Austin means they won’t be able to sign Imai or Bregman.
My favorite is how the Cubs “outbid themselves” on Austin, which there is literally no way they could know unless they were Austin’s agent.
Josh is 100 percent correct. Signing Tyler Austin for just a bit over $1 million does not mean the Cubs can’t sign Tatsuya Imai, or Alex Bregman, or both.
Now, will they do both those things? Probably not, because the Cubs seem to view the first luxury tax level ($244 million in 2026) as a hard salary cap. I have a hard time understanding that, especially after the release of the 2025 luxury tax numbers, which happened over the weekend.
I don’t think anyone here expects the Cubs to want to pay $169 million of luxury tax, as the Dodgers did, a figure that is more than the entire 2025 payroll of 12 of the 30 MLB teams.
But neither should they stop short of the luxury tax figure because they don’t want to pay a single dollar of it. The Cubs and the Ricketts family can afford it. Imai and Bregman would be good fits for the Cubs and they should sign both.
Before we get to Dep’s analysis, here’s where the Cubs 2026 payroll stands as of today.
And now, the main event. As always, BCB’s The Deputy Mayor of Rush Street has prepared some analysis of the above numbers. The rest of this post is Dep’s.
“I’m not saying one is right, one is wrong… I’m just saying when you look at gross revenue numbers – before revenue sharing, before CapEx, before property taxes, before amusement taxes — all that… you know, you’re not really seeing a REAL picture about what’s available to put into your uh… baseball budget.”
“So y’know — it’s fodder, it’s interesting to talk about – but it’s WILDLY inaccurate, so we don’t spend a ton of time looking at it.”
- Crane Kenney, from an interview on 670 The Score’s “Inside the Clubhouse”
“Life is pain, Cub fan. Anyone who says differently is selling something”
- The Dread Pirate Roberts
Late Friday afternoon before Christmas Week, in a “Take Out the Trash” story dump, the final CBT numbers for 2025 came in. A record tying (2024) nine teams paid the tax:
Dodgers $169,375,768
Mets $91,637,501
Yankees $61,774,820
Phillies $56,062,903
Blue Jays $13,609,719
Padres $6,992,447
Red Sox $1,496,828
Astros $1,497,438
Rangers $190,483
(From Baseball Prospectus – click on “Competitive Balance Tax 2003-25” a bit down this page.)
The 2026 Cubs Roster: Sixty Million Dollars of Eyewash
TOP LINE: The Yankees and Dodgers have each paid over half a billion dollars in luxury taxes over the years. For the Cubs’ history over this same period, their all-time total tax payments combined would have ranked them 6th… this season.
Before updating the recent additions and pondering Team Hoyer’s next moves, I had the occasion to hear a Crane Kenney interview a couple of weeks ago, where he attempted to justify how the third highest revenue team in baseball can’t seem to find the money to bring in (and keep) a “Marquee” free agent.
I’d like to address that, and suggest some explanations to bridge the difference between what Kenney said – and what it actually means to Cub fans. Because I thought his answers on revenue were misdirection at best.
(Note that I transcribed the portion of the interview I’m addressing — here’s that transcript if you are interested, and I believe the interview is also still available on 670 The Score’s website/podcast section.)
To cut to the chase, Kenney claimed that you can’t just compare the gross revenues to the player payroll to determine if the Cubs are spending their fair share of your money on players.
Cubs $584M-$213M = $371M difference (spending 36% of revenue, 26th in MLB)
NYY $728M-$384M = $344M difference (spending 50% of revenue, 11th in MLB)
LAD $752M-$549M = $203M difference (spending 73% of revenue, 2nd in MLB)
In making this case, Kenney raised four areas where he claimed the Cubs face expenses that other MLB teams don’t have to bear. You know of the chart we’re discussing here, so how can you explain the Revenue/Payroll disparity?
Kenney cited Revenue Sharing, CapEx, Property Taxes, and Amusement Taxes.
Revenue Sharing: I remember when revenue sharing was 40 percent of gate receipts to the visitors, and half the American League lived off Yankees games. These days, I believe there are three major sources of revenue sharing. One is distributing half of the total luxury tax payments, which we know doesn’t really apply to the Cubs, the second is from ticket sales, which has in some form been going on since before I can remember… and the last is local TV revenues. Local, because the national TV deals are already evenly split.
In that regard, the Cubs have been above average in local TV deals, but not too much above. In 2019, the Cubs reportedly made $65M in local fees, but only paid around $6M in revenue sharing off that. (The Dodgers shared $73M that year.) Now the Cubs have generally held their own of late, while other teams have taken substantial hits to their deals… let’s say that’s gone up to $9M of revenue sharing by now?
Capital Expenditures: Basically, the costs required to maintain Wrigley Field. Maintain and improve Wrigley Field, that is.
Such as when they built-in the ability to convert the playing area for football games. Or the costs of converting and repairing the field for concert performances.
Or putting in the 1914 Club, Catalina Club, Cree Lighting Club, Maker’s Mark Barrel Room, The W Club… also, the Hornito’s Hacienda, the Budweiser Bleacher seating, the Fannie May Room behind the batter’s eye, the LG Porch under the left field video board… and the Yeti Yard, added last spring. I’ve likely forgotten some of them, only the rooftop clubs and sports book are not included — and neither are either of those considered “Baseball revenue,” it’s private enterprise, LLC.
But in the interview, Kenney said this totaled more that the Cubs’ most expensive player. That’s Dansby Swanson, at $28M salary this season. So call it $30M. (Then pretend no other teams pay rent, or share maintenance costs, or some other form of contributing to their local and/or state governments.)
For example, just because the Yankees may not pay rent or property taxes, they do make PILOT payments (Payment In Lieu Of Taxes) on municipal bonds that paid for stadium renovations. It’s almost certainly a net tax break, but it’s not like they get off scot free.
Property Taxes: Crain’s reported that the Cubs paid $1.4M in property taxes in 2010, up to $2.6M in 2017. So maybe $5M by now? (The Cubs also reportedly received $8-8.5M in property tax breaks over a 12-year period while they were renovating the ballpark.)
Amusement Tax: Has the average cost of a ticket reached $60 by now? There is a 12 percent amusement tax which Cub fans pay, and is ‘baked’ into the ticket price. Maybe the team makes the effort to break that down at the time of purchase. So we’ll go with $6.50 times 3 million tickets — $19.5M.
Now I certainly don’t blame the team complaining – after all, there’s always going to be that next ask for public money from a sports franchise – I’m just saying don’t buy the alibi.
But even giving Kenney the benefit of the doubt, and not considering that other large-market teams may have certain expenses that the Cubs don’t pay? That $60 million or so would boost the Cubs spending percentage to perhaps 45… 47%.
And still leave them with a Revenue-Expense total that would only be matched by the Yankees, Red Sox and Atlanta. The money is there. The money has been there all along.
Here’s what has happened since our last update:
The Phil Maton signing was finalized on a two-year, $14.5M contract with a 2028 team option.
Left-handed reliever Hoby Milner was signed for one year at $3.75M
Left-handed reliever Caleb Thielbar was re-signed for one year at $4.5M
1B/corner OF Tyler Austin was signed as a bench (platoon?) player for one year at $1.25M
The 40-man roster stands at 34.
Current Player Payroll:
(Note, the figures for each player’s salary and ‘tax hit’ are per Cot’s Contracts, ‘tax hit’ being the charge against the Cubs’ luxury tax spending level. The base luxury tax threshold is $244,000,000 for the 2026 season.)
Players with Guaranteed Contracts (13):
Swanson $25,285,714
Imanaga $22,025,000
Happ $20,333,333
Suzuki $17,000,000
Taillon $17,000,000
Boyd $14,500,000
Hoerner $11,666,667
Maton $7,250,000
Rea $6,500,000
Kelly $5,750,000
Thielbar $4,500,000
Milner $3,750,000
Austin $1,250,000
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TOTAL $156,810,714
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Arbitration-eligible Players (1+1 on the IL – MLBTR estimates):
Steele $6,550,000 – (0 options left) (IL)
Assad $1,900,000 – (2)
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TOTAL $8,450,000
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(Note: The MLB minimum salary for 2026 rises to $780,000.)
Pre-Arb Players expected to make the 26-man roster (12):
Busch $825,000 – (2 options left)
Crow-Armstrong $812,000 – (2)
Amaya $810,000 – (0)
Shaw $792,000 – (3)
Horton $790,000 – (3)
Hodge $788,000 – (1)
Palencia $787,000 – (1)
Brown $786,000 – (1)
Wicks $784,000 – (2)
Ballesteros $783,000 – (2)
Alcantara $782,000 – (1)
Caissie $781,000 – (2)
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TOTAL $9,520,000
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Pre-Arb Players expected to start in the minors (7):
Hollowell – (1 option left)
Little – (1)
Martin – (3)
Neely – (1)
Ramirez – (3)
Roberts – (1)
Triantos – (3)
Other Expenses:
40-man Roster Players in Minors $2,700,000
Pension Payments & Sundry Expenses $18,000,000
Cubs’ Share of Pre-Arb Bonus Pool $1,666,667
(Reserve Withheld for Trades/Buffer)¹ $5,000,000
(Reserve for 60-Day IL Replacements) ² $3,000,000
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TOTAL $30,366,667
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GRAND TOTAL FOR TAX PURPOSES $205,147,381
LUXURY TAX THRESHOLD $244,000,000
CUBS STAND UNDER THE TAX BY $38,852,619
¹- Optional Expense, but some amount figures to be held back from wherever Tom Ricketts sets the baseball budget.
² – Estimating approximately four seasons’ worth of MLB minimum players for eight 60-Day IL stints of varying length. For example, Justin Steele may not return from TJS until June.
ADJUSTED FOR ACTUAL PAYROLL EXPENDITURES IN 2026
GRAND TOTAL IN CASH OUTLAY $209,611,667
(This figure includes adding $4,464,286 in adjustments between contract payouts and tax valuations.)
Current Projected Roster — Again, there are now 34 players on the 40-man roster.
OF (5): Happ – Crow-Armstrong – Suzuki – Caissie – Alcantara
IF (5): Shaw – Swanson – Hoerner – Busch – Austin
C (3): Amaya – Kelly – Ballesteros
SP (5): Horton – Boyd – Taillon – Imanaga – Rea (Steele IL)
RP (8): Palencia – Maton – Hodge – Thielbar – Milner – Brown – Wicks – Assad
(Note: All relievers on this list except Maton, Thielbar, Milner [or Rea] can ride the Shuttle in 2026.)
2026 60-Day IL (1): Steele
40 man pos. players in minors (2) – Pedro Ramirez, James Triantos
40 man pitchers in minors (5) – Gavin Hollowell, Luke Little, Riley Martin, Jack Neely, Ethan Roberts
Notable non-roster players in minors – Jaxon Wiggins, Jonathon Long
BOTTOM LINE: So finances aside, we pretty much can be sure the Cubs will not spend into the luxury tax – and this year doesn’t sound like they’re planning a “rare exception”. That said there still appears to be room in the budget for one major addition.
But will that be one of the few remaining upper-shelf starting pitchers, or one of the few remaining difference-making bats?
Jed Hoyer seems to have addressed the bullpen enough to start a season, and he can work his waiver wire magic from here. There is still a need for a utility infielder who can at least cover for Nico while Hoerner covers at shortstop… you can draw up a scenario where that turns into Matt Shaw, but the team strategy continues to require adding rookies into the mix on a regular basis to leave room for some veteran players.
Ian Happ, Nico Hoerner, Michael Busch, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Matt Shaw…. Miguel Amaya, not so much so far — he and Justin Steele really need a season of good health now. But it’s up to Owen Caissie and Moises Ballesteros to start mixing in this year, and then… can Ethan Conrad come along fast enough to be in the 2027 picture? Is Jonathon Long actually legit?
Because continuing to graduate prospects (and put up with the growing pains) is the only way this team’s strategy is going to work. But that’s as much a story for next season as this one.
Who do you want to add with the almost $39M left in the budget?
