At the beginning of the off-season, it seemed very unlikely the Phillies would be able to sign a big-money free agent if they also brought back Kyle Schwarber. Of course, they ultimately secured the reigning NL MVP runner-up to a five-year, $150 million contract back in December. The chances of signing one of the other marquee free agents dimmed even more after locking up outfielder Adolis Garcia on a $10 million deal and reliever Brad Keller on a two-year, $22 million contract, especially with catcher
J.T. Realmuto still on the docket.
Of course, things have changed. Realmuto continues to languish in free agency, unhappy with whatever offer the Phils made him at the beginning of the winter. And as Blue Jays infielder Bo Bichette’s market grew stagnant, the Phillies appear to be swooping in and are somehow the favorites to sign him to what will be a massive free agent contract.
There are things to be worked out for this to work. Aside from the roster machinations that would need to take place if they do sign Bichette, the Phillies are wedged right up against the fourth luxury tax threshold once again, with a projected 40-man competitive balance tax payroll that currently sits at $302 million, about $4 million short of the final $306 million. Even before re-signing Realmuto or inking Bichette, the Phillies are due to pay $39.6 million in luxury taxes, according to Cot’s Contracts.
That number would undoubtedly go up if Bichette signs, even if the Phils pivot away from Realmuto at catcher and deal away Alec Bohm to make room for him. The luxury tax situation is one of the main reasons I never dreamed they would be able to add another potential $27-30 million dollar a year player this off-season.
Looks like I was wrong! Looking at the next few years, it makes sense to do this now with Bichette for a few reasons.
Lackluster Future Free Agent Markets
First, as ESPN’s Jeff Passan astutely laid out in a post on Wednesday, the free agent classes over the next two winters are bereft of free agents of Bichette’s caliber.
“Regardless of the reason behind the languid pace of free agency this winter — the collapse of regional sports networks, labor uncertainty, an active strategy to squeeze players as camp approaches or some combination of the lot — the reality, particularly for teams playing at the top of the market, is that this might be their last opportunity to land a front-line bat in free agency for years.
Neither of the next two free agent classes features a hitter as attractive as Tucker, Bichette or Bellinger. The best of next winter: Nico Hoerner, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Brandon Lowe, Daulton Varsho, Randy Arozarena, Seiya Suzuki, Trent Grisham, Ha-Seong Kim, J.P. Crawford and Gleyber Torres. The top following the 2027 season: Jeremy Pena, William Contreras, Steven Kwan, Adley Rutschman, Isaac Paredes, Munetaka Murakami, Luis Robert Jr. and Freddie Freeman, who will be 38.
It is grim. And with the acquisition cost for trades enormous, it reinforces the leverage the remaining bats hold. Miss out on Tucker, Bichette or Bellinger, all of whom cost only cash, and the ability to recover could be severely mitigated absent breakout seasons from any of the above.“
If the Phillies sign Bichette, he is likely to be the last big-money free agent the team signs for a number of years. They will need to depend on their prospects to blossom and to reload the roster with trades, which we’ve all seen are very difficult to pull off in today’s MLB, as there will be no other young superstars to simply had a check to after Bichette.
Future Payroll Flexibility
Second, the Phils have money coming off the books that could potentially bring them under the fourth luxury tax starting in 2027. According to Cot’s Contracts, the Phillies are due to shed $82.6 million from their payroll heading into next year:
- Nick Castellanos $20M
- Taijuan Walker $18M
- Jesus Luzardo $11M
- Alec Bohm $10.2M
- Adolis Garcia $10M
- Jose Alvarado $9M
- Edmundo Sosa $4.4M
The Phillies would undoubtedly love to shed at least some of that Castellanos and Walker money in trades now, but odds are the Phils will keep Walker for depth and either be forced to eat a vast majority of the Castellanos contract in a trade or release him and be on the hook for all of it.
If Bichette agrees to a free agent deal, it likely means Bohm will be traded, freeing up that $10 million now. It’s hard to see Garcia spending more than one season in Philadelphia, even if he has a breakout season, given their other commitments. Alvarado won’t be signed to a contract extension and will likely price himself out of the Phils’ bullpen, and they will probably find a less expensive utility infielder than Sosa starting in 2027.
The one player listed above Dombrowski would almost certainly like to sign to an extension is Luzardo. One would imagine those talks would take place soon, which could increase his price tag both this season, and moving forward in terms of luxury tax implications. It also doesn’t account for arbitration raises or contract extensions for closer Jhoan Duran ($7.5M in ‘26), Bryson Stott ($5.9M), Brandon Marsh ($5.2M), and/or Tanner Banks ($1.2M). Some of those raises could be steep (Durah, Stott and Marsh in particular), which would eat into more of that $82.6 million being freed up.
John Middleton and the Phillies don’t do deferrals, but they do sometimes spread money out over the life of a contract a little bit in terms of real cash. In order to sign Bichette, the front office could structure a contract that pays him a minimal salary in terms of actual dollars this season in order to absorb what would certainly be a substantial luxury tax payment, with larger sums of real money beginning in 2027 and beyond, after the team has lessened its tax burden.
Labor Uncertainty
Third, the impending labor situation hangs over the sport like a black cloud. Will there be a lockout at the end of the season? Almost certainly. What will the new financial rules look like? Will games be missed? Will big-spending teams find it easier or more difficult to add players with a new agreement? Will there be a salary cap or salary floor?
At this point, it’s impossible to say. For now, if all the reports regarding the Phillies and Bichette are true, the team is prepared to pay more in luxury tax penalties than they ever have, perhaps even enough to re-sign Realmuto, too.
Desperation
Finally, this team, and its owner, are desperate to win a World Series. After so many near-misses and coming up short in October, adding a young difference maker like Bichette would immediately equip them better than simply re-signing Realmuto and calling it a day. It would also change up the clubhouse mix a bit, inject a little life into a locker room and a fanbase that, quite frankly, needs a jolt of energy.
Motivation plus opportunity often leads to big things happening and, make no mistake, signing Bichette would be a very, very big thing.
