UFC Vegas 118 is less than 24 hours away …
It all goes down this weekend (Sat., June 6, 2026) inside the Meta Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. In the main event, former Welterweight champion Belal Muhammad collides with rising Brazilian contender Gabriel Bonfim.
We have a weekly series at MMAmania.com called “Weekend Lock,” where we share one bet that we predict will slap in “Sin City” when the chaotic dust settles. We also want to hear what our readers think (that’s you!), so please tell us your most confident
UFC Vegas 118 betting lock in the comments section below (see full UFC Vegas 118 odds here).
Last week’s recap: We cashed last weekend at UFC Macau as Alonzo Menifield and Zhang Mingyang ended under 1.5 rounds.
Let’s keep rolling below:
Buried on the prelims, dangerous Brazilian finisher Joanderson Brito squares off against former Lightweight-turned Featherweight Jordan Leavitt — and it’s time I take an underdog.
This week, I’m locking in Leavitt’s moneyline at +154.
Here’s Why:
This line feels like it’s heavily influenced by Brito’s nasty finishes and explosive striking, while completely ignoring the giant wrestling elephant in the room.
Leavitt is a very, very good grappler.
And once he gets opponents down, they tend to stay there.
That was true when he competed at Lightweight, where he controlled larger opponents and then finished them on the mat. Then, in his Featherweight debut, he absolutely mauled undefeated prospect Yadier Del Valle. It wasn’t pretty. It wasn’t exciting. In fact, it was downright boring.
But it was extremely dominant.
Leavitt repeatedly grounded one of the division’s most hyped prospects and gave him virtually no room to work. If you’re betting on fights, boring domination is exactly what you want to see.
Now let’s talk about Brito.
He’s powerful. He’s dangerous. His leg kicks are nasty. His finishing instincts are elite.
But two fights ago, Pat Sabatini completely dismantled him with wrestling and top control.
And here’s the key point: Sabatini is primarily known as a jiu-jitsu specialist.
If Sabatini was able to repeatedly take Brito down and control him, what is the naturally bigger Leavitt going to do?
That’s the question oddsmakers seem to be overlooking.
Brito’s kicking game could actually work against him here. Every naked leg kick presents an opportunity for Leavitt to change levels, catch the kick, or shoot underneath and start his wrestling cycle. Once the fight hits the mat, the momentum shifts dramatically toward the underdog. Plus, once Brito hits the ground, he stays in half guard and does not try to advance.
What could go wrong?
Brito hits like a truck. Leavitt has to cross dangerous territory every time he attempts a takedown, and one clean shot could end the night immediately. Brito also possesses excellent submission skills if scrambles get messy.
Still, stylistically, this feels like a nightmare matchup for the Brazilian. At plus money, Leavitt (+154) looks like one of the best value plays on the entire UFC Vegas 118 card.
Jordan Leavitt To Win By KO/TKO/DQ: +2500
Jordan Leavitt To Win By Submission: +600
Jordan Leavitt To Win By Decision: +300
Joanderson Brito To Win By KO/TKO/DQ: +275
Joanderson Brito by Submission: +425
Joanderson Brito To Win By Decision: +205
To checkout the latest and greatest UFC Vegas 118: “Muhammad vs. Bonfim” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.
