The Twins are not the same team they were earlier this year, having traded several key players at the trade deadline including Carlos Correa, Harrison Bader, Willi Castro, Ty France, Chris Paddack, Jhoan Duran, Louis Varland, Danny Coulombe, and Griffin Jax. They have lost 21 of 32 games since then, although they took two of three from the Royals in a home series just a few weeks ago.
Minnesota Twins (62-78) vs. Kansas City Royals (71-69) at Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Twins: 4.23 runs scored/game
(22nd in MLB), 4.78 runs allowed/game (24th)
Royals: 3.84 runs scored/game (28th), 3.89 runs allowed/game (3rd)
Luke Keaschall was in Triple-A five weeks ago, but now he may be the best hitter in the Twins lineup. He’s coming off his first career four-hit game on Thursday, and his .320 batting average since August 1 is the 15th-best in baseball. Byron Buxton is hitting .307/.376/.705 against lefties this year, but is 0-for-7 in his career against Michael Wacha. He has a 53 percent pull rate this year, fourth-highest in baseball.
Trevor Larnach is a career .250/.346/.309 hitter in 20 games at Kauffman Stadium. Brooks Lee is batting just .221/.274/.344 on the road. James Outman is in a 3-for-32 (.094) slump. Eduoard Julien has a 51 percent groundball rate.
The Twins are a well below-average defensive team, having traded away some of their best defenders. Byron Buxton is still a plus defender in center, but Larnach and Matt Wallner are subpar, and Brooks Lee has been poor at shortstop. Twins catchers have thrown out 23 percent of base-stealing attempts, with starter Ryan Jeffers throwing out just 19 percent.
The Twins as a team have a 5.39 ERA since the start of August, fourth-worst in baseball. Pablo López returns on Friday from a three-month absence stemming from a shoulder injury. In three career starts at Kauffman Stadium he has given up just one earned run with 21 strikeouts in 17 innings for a 0.53 ERA. Opponents are hitting just .136 against his sweeper with a 30 percent whiff rate. Mike Yastrzemski is 3-for-18 (.167) in his career against López with nine strikeouts.
Joe Ryan tossed seven shutout innings with eight strikeouts in his last start against the Padres, but has a 3.94 ERA since the All-Star break. He has the eighth-highest strikeout rate among starters at 28.3 percent and the fourth-lowest walk rate at 4.9 percent. He has a 47 percent flyball rate, second-highest in baseball. Righties are hitting just .180/.239/.303 against him this year. Salvador Perez is just 3-for-20 (.150) against him in his career.
Bailey Ober has a 6.97 ERA since the start of June, and the Twins have lost 12 of his last 13 starts. He held the Royals to just one run in six innings a few weeks ago, but lost 2-0. He has a 6.02 ERA on the road and a career 5.57 ERA in seven starts at Kauffman Stadium. Bobby Witt Jr. is a career 12-for-28 (.429) hitter with a home run against him. Opponents are hitting .323 against his slider this year.
The Twins bullpen has been decimated and has a 5.24 ERA since the deadline. They have given up 21 runs in 15 innings in September. Justin Topa has been getting most of the save opportunities lately, but he blew two saves this week against the White Sox and has given up six runs in 7.1 innings in his last seven outings. Cole Sands has allowed a 36.4 percent hard-hit rate, 14th-highest in baseball. Génesis Cabrera has given up 10 runs in 8 innings since joining the Twins. Brooks Kriske at Thomas Hatch both briefly pitched for the Royals, with Hatch pitching an inning for the Royals earlier this year.
The Twins are coming off a four-game sweep at the hands of the White Sox where they gave up 33 runs, so they’re reeling. But the Royals have struggled against teams playing poorly before, and the Twins still have some strong stating pitchers. The Royals will need to close out this homestand strong against a weakened foe to have a chance at climbing back into the Wild Card race as time is running out.
