The third installment of the College Football Playoff rankings was released Tuesday night. After the biggest comeback in program history by Texas A&M, the top three teams remain undefeated and unchanged.
The FanDuel betting favorite, Ohio State, remained No. 1, Indiana (which was idle last week) stayed at No. 2 and the Aggies — by the skin of their teeth — held on at No. 3.
But behind this triumvirate, a little chaos began to enter the chat with both Alabama and Texas losing last week. Georgia moved up to No. 4 following another Kirby Smart masterclass against Steve Sarkisian and Texas. Behind the Bulldogs, Texas Tech, Ole Miss, and Oregon all moved up one spot, while Oklahoma jumped three spots to No. 8. Notre Dame held serve at No. 9 and, despite the recent loss to Oklahoma, Alabama only falls to No. 10 and remains alive as the final at-large team.
No. 14 Miami would be in the CFP as an 11-seed ACC champion and would be joined by No. 24 Tulane as the 12-seed and Group of Six representative. For the third consecutive week, the Group of Six representative team has changed in what continues to be a wild sprint to the finish.
Michigan’s path to the CFP
The Michigan Wolverines held on to the No. 18 spot after a nail-biting victory over Northwestern. At 8-2, everything is still in front of this team, but the path isn’t as clean with both the ACC and Big 12 threatening to each get two teams in. Currently, it feels like the top nine, in some order, are all but locked in. There is always room for chaos, but this feels like a safe bet for now. Here are the official FanDuel odds.
Teams in contention behind that are Alabama, BYU, Utah, Miami, Vanderbilt, USC, Georgia Tech and Michigan. Texas is technically in that group at No. 17, but with three losses, the Longhorns are not a threat to make it unless all Hell breaks loose. If the Wolverines were to win out, it would give them the biggest data point (a win over Ohio State) among all these contenders. However, to bolster their case, here are a few things to watch/root for:
- USC losing to Oregon. USC has a tough game this weekend at Oregon before finishing up against UCLA. Although a rivalry, it is unlikely the Trojans will fall against the Bruins, so Michigan desperately needs USC to lose to the Ducks. Ideally, if Oregon could beat USC and lose to Washington, that could help ease the barrier to CFP entry for a few teams and backdoor Michigan into the Big Ten Championship. But that feels too hopeful. If USC wins out, despite having a hypothetical better win on the resume, the head-to-head loss would likely keep the Wolverines out. Go Ducks.
- Miami losing one more game. The Hurricanes are currently behind four teams in the ACC standings and will likely miss the ACC Championship. But Miami also remains the highest-ranked ACC team and represents the only chance of the ACC getting two bids to the dance. If Miami loses to Virginia Tech or Pitt, this removes the Hurricanes from the equation entirely with three losses, and the ACC will only get its conference champion in.
- BYU losing before the Big 12 Championship. With still only one loss, BYU represents the best chance for the Big 12 to get two teams into the CFP. If BYU wins its next two games, makes the conference title game and loses again to Texas Tech, it could still be considered the top bubble team. A second loss on the season to either Cincinnati this weekend or UCF in the final week, however, would make its only path to the CFP a conference championship victory.
- Any of these teams losing. If the three scenarios play out above and Michigan wins out, the Wolverines should have enough ammo to jump Vanderbilt, Utah and Alabama. But for good measure, root for Tennessee to knock off the Commodores in the final week of the season, and for Utah to have its run spoiled by one of the two Kansas teams. Finally, Auburn jumpstarting its rebuild with its first Iron Bowl victory since 2019 would also help the Wolverines.
If The Playoff Started Today…
No. 24 Tulane (G6) vs. No. 5 Texas Tech (Big 12 Champion)… Winner faces Georgia
No. 9 Notre Dame (at-large) vs. No. 8 Oklahoma (at-large)… Winner faces Ohio State
No. 13 Miami (ACC Champion) vs. No. 6 Ole Miss (at-large)… Winner faces Texas A&M
No. 10 Alabama (at-large) vs. No. 7 Oregon (Big 12 Champion)… Winner faces Indiana
The Official CFP Top 25
- Ohio State
- Indiana
- Texas A&M
- Georgia
- Texas Tech
- Ole Miss
- Oregon
- Oklahoma
- Notre Dame
- Alabama
- BYU
- Utah
- Miami
- Vanderbilt
- USC
- Georgia Tech
- Texas
- Michigan
- Virginia
- Tennessee
- Illinois
- Missouri
- Houston
- Tulane
- Arizona State
