Overview
- Rating: 6.88 [distribution: poor (3-) 0%, excellent (8+) 37.5%]
- 2025 Stats
- 28 Games in Relief, 1.24 ERA, 3.31 FIP, 19 SO, 10 BB
- Date of Birth: 8/18/1997
- 2025 Earnings: Pre-arbitration.
- 2026 Status: On 40-man roster, Pre-Arbitration Eligible.
An Expectation for 2025.
When people do something that’s deemed nearly impossible, it fills me with happiness and joy. Was it nearly impossible that Andrew Saalfrank would play in the Majors in 2025?
“I’m not betting on him to make a single appearance with the Diamondbacks in 2025.” — 1Azfan1, Player Review for 2024
A Comparison.
Andrew Saalfrank pitched in the Majors in 2025. In the context of accomplishing that nearly impossible feat, the following comparison surprised me. The following table shows a comparison of the age 27 seasons for
Andrew Saalfrank and Shohei Ohtani. Data from Stathead and Baseball Reference
The comparison is surprising because it shows Saalfrank’s pitching as better than Ohtani’s (ERA, hits per 9 innings, homers per 9 innings, and WHIP). One caveat is that Ohtani pitched more innings and Ohtani was a starter instead of a reliever.
In the bottom of the table are statistics that are sometimes used to project future performance. Saalfrank is projected to pitch worse next season (2026). One possible reason is that he had a great BABIP, which is often not sustainable. My counter point is that Saalfrank’s BABIP is only slightly better than his career BABIP. Also, his hard-hit percentage is encouraging. A valid concern could be that his FIP was worse than his excellent ERA.
The Foundation of His Mindset.
Always be ready. “It’s kind of always be ready. I kind of expect us to comeback or take the lead, anything like that. So you want to pitch the ninth inning because I mean something could happen to the score. Yah, that’s sort of where your mind’s supposed to be at for the whole game, just being locked in inning 1 to 9, inning 10, 11,12,13 however many we have to go.” — Andrew Saalfrank
One day at a time. “As quick as the game can come, the game can leave just as quick. Just trying to value every day….For me, it was just enjoying that day and winning that day. And just trying to make the most of that day. And just kind of figure out the next one out the next day.” — Andrew Saalfrank
Confidently attack the strike zone. “He’s a unique slot, really unique pitch shapes, the velocity probably a little bit lighter than what they expect at the back of the game. It’s just hard for guys to plan for or feel like they’ve seen it before. So it just sneaks up on them and he’s got this killer mentality, just goes after guys and attacks the zone and doesn’t care what the radar gun says. He just feels confident in his stuff.” — Brian Kaplan
2025 Review
He added a third pitch. It was a 4-seam fastball that has a lot of carry (it maintains its trajectory an unusually long time giving the illusion of rising). “I get more like respect, I think, in the zone now the hitters don’t necessarily have to look just bottom half. So that’s opened up my game a little bit just in terms of like being able to pitch … versus like flip a coin sinker or curveball, which one is it?” — Andrew Saalfrank
His pitch control improved. “I think execution-wise for me has been really good this year. Just trying to get ahead and stay ahead.” — Andrew Saalfrank
“Since his return, Saalfrank has re-established himself with his command of the strike zone. While he does not get many strikeouts, he’s been able to make the pitch that gets the ground ball or easy flyout. Additionally, his four-seam fastball has improved in quality, and his control of his sinker and curveball has become more effective.” — Jim Marshall, September 2025
For right-handed batters, fastball velocity increased in each of the last two months of the season. “Andrew’s very dependable. He missed an entire year of baseball and I think the stuff is gonna get better. I think the fastball velo continues to tick up. It’s a big swing-and-miss breaking ball. He’s doing a fantastic job, and I think he’s got more in him.” — Torey Lovullo
The following table shows Saalfrank’s increased fastball velocities. Data from Baseball Savant.
Excellent results against right-handed batters. As a left-handed pitcher, he is expected to have excellent results against left handed batters. What makes him very valuable is his excellent results against right-handed batters. The following table shows his results for both left-handed and right-handed batters. Data from Baseball Savant.
Let’s compare Anderw Saalfrank to other left-handed Diamondbacks pitchers. Two points:
- vs right-handed batters. Andrew Saalfrank had the best OBP, SLG, and wOBA.
- vs left-handed batters. Andrew Saalfrank had the best SLG. Although he was in the pack for wOBA, he was better than AJ Puk.
The following table compares left-handed bullpen pitchers with at least 50 pitches vs right-handed batters (Abner and K. Nelson were excluded).
The AZ Snake Pit voted Andrew Saalfrank the Diamondbacks’ Rookie-of-the-Year. His mindset meant that despite his circumstances, he was ready when he was called up in July. Bravo!
2026 Outlook
His ceiling is high. His ERA+ was the best of any Diamondbacks pitcher, starter or reliever. His age 27 season was in many ways better than Ohtani’s age 27 season. I’m confident he will continue to improve.
In November, FanGraph’s Roster Resource showed him as the Diamondbacks closer. He could shine in that role because he pitched well against left-handed batters and right-handed batters. On the other hand, because other pitchers have faster velocities on their fastballs, maybe a better role would be fireman, to step into high leverage situations before the ninth innings.
His floor is high. The Diamondbacks very much need pitchers. In the unlikely event that his performance falls, he will nevertheless add value in the bullpen. I’m confident he will be on the active roster in a yet-to-be-determined role.
