Over the last few weeks, I wrote over 10,000 words about 61 pitchers in the American League East. I talked about what they’ve done, how they attack hitters, and where they can improve. While I left some nuggets about what pitchers might become, I wanted to give myself a space to be publicly wrong in my analysis, so here are some predictions for the Red Sox pitching staff in 2026.
Sonny Gray does not start a playoff game
I fully believe the Red Sox are going to make the playoffs*. The pitching is improved, the defense should be better, and
while the offense might lack a true 40 home run threat, there are some potent bats in the lineup. With that being said, when the first playoff series of the season comes around, I don’t expect to see Sonny Gray as a probable.
I’m worried about Gray for a couple of reasons. The first is his performance against left-handed hitters. Last season, he limited lefties to a .668 OPS and struck out 29% of them, which is excellent. But while the numbers were great, the under-the-hood statistics raise some questions. He used six different pitches against lefties, none of which held an ideal contact rate below 40%. While much of the hard contact came to right center field, where the Red Sox have Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu, I’m expecting lefties to have more success against Gray this season.
The second reason Gray gives me pause is his called strike rate against right-handed hitters. His four-seam, sinker, and cutter combined for about 65% of his pitches to righties last season. They returned called strike rates of 29%, 26%, and 19%, respectively. It works because everything is thrown to the glove side. Cutters run off the plate, which gives hitters enough pause to let four-seams that stay straight and sinkers that come back to the plate go by for called strikes. What’s made me think twice about Gray is his cutter shape through his first two warmup outings.
The stars represent his average movement from the previous season. This season, it’s been harder with about three fewer inches of horizontal break. I can’t help but wonder if Gray will see fewer called strikes with his four-seam and cutter being too similar. The wOBA posted by righties against Gray while ahead in the count is over 100 points higher than when behind. If his source of early strikes dries up, his strikeouts could as well, making it a rough season for Gray. When the Red Sox start the postseason, Sonny Gray won’t be one of the pitchers lined up to start.
*This prediction is really a measurable way to say Sonny Gray isn’t one of the best three or four pitchers on the team.
Johan Oviedo does start a playoff game
If Sonny Gray isn’t starting a playoff game, you’re probably wondering who is. Or, more likely, you read from the top down like a normal person and the big font caught your eye, so you know that I think Johan Oviedo will start a playoff game.
Oviedo has been a trendy breakout pick this offseason, and I’m buying the hype. The stuff is just undeniable. Of starting pitchers with 300 pitches thrown in the zone (an arbitrary cutoff to make a point, 210 qualifiers), Oviedo ranked 16th in in-zone swinging strike rate. The players ranked above him are pretty good, to say the least.
Walks are the issue for Oviedo. Last season, he handed out free passes to 13.5% of hitters he faced. It’s due to his fastball, which held a very low 54% strike rate and 45% zone rate. His slider and curveball picked up the slack, finding the zone frequently and generating swings and misses on the way to strike rates over 65%. His strike rates with his breaking pitches were consistent with 2023, his last full season in the big leagues. In that season, his fastball strike rate was closer to 60%, and his walk rate was 10.6%. If he can get his fastball strike rate back up above 60%, he’ll see his walk rate fall significantly.
On top of that, his strikeout rate increased over that span. Ironically, it’s also due to the fastball. After returning from injury, he tweaked his fastball and saw the vertical break skyrocket from 9 inches to 14 inches. With his low release point, the height-adjusted vertical approach angle increased from 0.9 degrees to 1.5 degrees. That mark ranked in the 90th percentile among starting pitchers, and will allow the pitch to miss bats at the top of the zone, and give more margin for error lower in the zone. The swinging strike rate jumped four percent from 2023 to 2025 with the new shape. In camp, his four-seam zone rate is up about five percent from 2025, while his strike rate is up to 62%. Spring training numbers aren’t the end-all-be-all, but he’s shown improvement, and a small uptick in control can yield massive dividends.
The only concern is innings. Oviedo only threw 40 innings last season, and didn’t throw at all in 2024. He looks to be starting the season as the fifth starter in the rotation, so some innings management might be necessary to keep him ready through a full season. If his workload is managed and his velocity holds through a hold season, Oviedo will be a pitcher fans look forward to watching by the end of the season, so much so that he’ll be lined up to start a playoff game.
Noah Song becomes a bullpen mainstay
Aroldis Chapman, Garrett Whitlock, and Justin Slaten are the only relievers on the roster I truly trust. After that, the group starts to get thin. I suppose that’s true of most teams, and improved starting pitching should decrease the workload for the pen, but there’s still going to be a need for outs in the middle innings. One or two injuries, which are bound to happen, and there won’t be much experience in the bullpen.
That’s where Noah Song comes in. Song has settled into a relief role and looked sharp in camp. Lefties are 0-8 against him, while righties are just 3-17. He’s done it with a slider-heavy approach that’s generated whiffs at a high clip. It gets up to 86 mph at times, and while the zone rate is on the lower side for a primary offering, he’s generally kept it on the glove side where it plays best. His fastball sits mid-90s, but has got up to 98 mph with up to 19 inches of vertical movement. While Song doesn’t have major league experience, his ability to miss bats will help him find his way into the bullpen mix this season. When that happens, he’ll settle in nicely and keep hold of the spot, appearing in higher leverage spots by the end of the season.
