We barely have time to digest the Week 2 loss to the Carolina Panthers before the Atlanta Falcons suit up to take on the Green Bay Packers in Week 3. Perhaps that’s for the best, or perhaps we’re going to we’re going to get rocked by this team twice in less than a week. Who’s to say?
I am. The Falcons are facing off against a tired, vulnerable Packers team but may not have the wherewithal to take advantage of that fact; the return of Michael Penix Jr. to the starting lineup should at least give them
a fighting chance. In what’s likely to be a confusing, deeply irritating slopfest from two very tired teams, who will prevail?
Let’s try to figure that out.
How these two teams stack up
Both have been disappointing, but one only mildly and the other very much so.
The Packers are 19th in points scored and 24th in points allowed thus far, which is what happens when you get stomped by the Vikings 39-22 in Week 1 and go to overtime with the Jets in Week 2. Jordan Love has been quite solid and this team still has a gifted set of top receiving options, but their ground game has been mediocre and Love’s completed a concerningly low 52% of his passes thus far. The dismal pass protection of Week 1, aided by Brian Flores summoning blitzes from his hands all day, led Green Bay to lean heavily on a quick passing game in Week 2 that Jeff Ulbrich is going to have to effectively counter. As Justis Mosqueda notes in the writeup I just linked from Acme Packing Company, Love is getting rattled by pressure, and the Falcons can provide that.
Defensively I don’t think the Packers are at all bad, and in fact Edgerrin Cooper and Lukas Van Ness are extremely scary for a team that hasn’t blocked all that well and is about to roll Penix out there, with the 39 points they allowed to Minnesota swinging on short fields provided by special teams miscues and turnovers. They don’t have Micah Parsons yet but are quite stout without him, though Bijan Robinson will sorely test them.
Special teams coverage was shaky in Week 1 for Green Bay but quite good in Week 2, and rookie kicker Trey Smack has been a perfect 5/5 with a long of 59 yards.
Like Green Bay, Atlanta’s great weakness thus far has been the offense. Unlike Green Bay, they have a terrific ground game that hasn’t even begun to get untracked yet because of the weakness of the passing game, though that may change if Penix is able to at least restore competence and the threat of an explosive play through the air. The Falcons offense has been so dismal thus far under Cooper Rush and (briefly) Jack Strand that it’s virtually impossible to say what form it’s going to take Thursday night, though we should be able to bet on it looking better than it has.
Defensively, the Falcons have mostly picked up where they left off last year. Ulbrich and company are getting more juice out of their pass rush with fewer blitzes thus far and have been solid stopping the run, which is a major victory. A.J. Terrell potentially being out and the secondary looking a little wobbly thus far—zero turnovers, some bad lapses in coverage, etc.—is a cause for concern if Love does get untracked.
And on special teams, the Falcons have struggled a bit in coverage, which is a problem with Skyy Moore capable of breaking one. Nick Folk’s dismal start to the season needs to change fast, too, if this should come down to a field goal arms (legs?) race.
How the Packers have changed in 2026
Not a whole lot. Jonathan Gannon landing on his feet as the new defensive coordinator after he was bounced as Arizona’s head coach is a good thing for both the coach and the team, as his defense has looked quite good thus far. Javon Hargrave was one of the headline additions in free agency and has gotten off to a quiet start, and they did trade for linebacker Zaire Franklin. Otherwise, they lost quite a few contributors of yesteryear in free agency and ended up with just a six man draft class after trading their 2026T first to Dallas in the Micah Parsons deal. To be fair, second round pick Brandon Cisse is already starting at cornerback, Smack has been excellent, and rookie reserve guard Jager Burton has already had to jump into game action and held his own.
They also just lost Jayden Reed, one of their promising and productive young receivers, for a bit after a scary back injury in Week 2. Otherwise, though, this is a familiar cast of characters for a team that’s typically among the NFC’s better squads.
What to expect on Thursday Night Football
I think it’s fair to anticipate the defenses ruling the evening. The Falcons will be—have to be—better offensively against Green Bay with Penix under center, but this is not an ideal matchup for them with a tough front that already has seven sacks and a frisky secondary that will punish mistakes. Similarly, the lackluster Green Bay ground game and Love’s shaky play under pressure are not exactly ideal when you’re facing off against an Atlanta defense that can bring pressure, at least theoretically has a cast of playmakers in the secondary, and has been solid against the run in its own right.
Barring something stunning from Penix or a major return to form from Love, then, this shouldn’t be a high-scoring affair. What it will be is a game of attrition where the team that makes fewer mistakes will likely win, which is once again not exactly great news for either team. The Falcons have had some really poorly timed offensive line penalties and secondary miscues, adding up to 15 penalties for 135 yards, but the Packers have had an incredible 26 penalties called through two games. If the Falcons can get a couple of Love turnovers and give this overmatched Green Bay line enough fits to force multiple false starts and holds, they’ll give the offense a real chance at pulling this one out in primetime.
Of course, the offense has to hold up its end of the bargain. Penix will open up the field for Atlanta and should ensure that Kyle Pitts and Drake London are not non-factors the way they largely have been the first two weeks—Pitts in particular—but also has a track record of shaky games against tough defenses in his short NFL career that includes a 135 yard effort against Minnesota and 12/28 and 177 yards against Indianapolis. We just don’t know what he’s going to look like in his first game back since his ACL surgery, and much will hinge on whether he’s rusty, solid, or great. It’s worth noting that over his final six games of 2025, Penix had thrown six touchdowns against zero interceptions, and if he can be careful with the ball it will go a long way toward this team earning a victory Thursday night.
We do know that Bijan and Brian Robinsons can run effectively against this front, even though it’s quite stout, because they’re a quality duo and Bijan in particular is hard to bottle up for an entire game. Leaning on play action heavily and giving the Packers a heavy dose of Bijan to try to ease Penix in is a solid game plan that Tommy Rees is likely to prioritize, but at some point the Falcons are going to need to take those big shots to win. We’ll see what Penix can offer.
If it’s close, as it’s likely to be, all eyes will be on Nick Folk. Smack’s looked very dependable for Green Bay early on and has hit kicks from range, where Folk’s vaunted accuracy has evaporated as he’s missed three of the six attempts he’s taken thus far, including one in the cozy confines of Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The Falcons really can’t afford to have missed kicks define this one.
I see no reason to assume this will be a lopsided game, both because Atlanta should be better with Penix and Green Bay is still figuring some things out. If the Falcons are going to win this and start climbing back into the NFC South race, they’ll need to play a clean game and have the offense roar to life. It’s no small task, but perhaps there’s some primetime magic in this team?
