I really enjoy podcasts, in fact I have a couple of friends that were very early adopters of the format, putting out a weekly show called the “Creepy Sleepy Radio Hour” from their apartment in the Black
Hills back in like 2004. It was a show being made by two part-time rock radio DJs in their spare time, and it introduced me to a lot of music that I likely wouldn’t have found on my own. I’d gladly link to an episode or two here, but I don’t think they exist anywhere on the internet at this point.
Nowadays I listen to some political podcasts, a few podcasts from The Ringer (I particularly enjoy the Rewatchables and 60 Songs The Explain the 90’s and it’s sequel), Hit Parade (which is a killer show about the history of the Billboard charts), and – especially during football season – several Iowa Hawkeye podcasts. I listen to the Hawk Central Show, I listen to Swarmcast, I occasionally check out the Washed Up Walk-ons (though I don’t have that much time to actually listen, and their shows tend to run a bit long). I’ve listened to at least 2 of those shows since Saturday and the reaction to the win in Madison was pretty common (and it’s reflective of what I’ve seen on reddit and twitter from fans) – if Gronoski can stay healthy, Iowa just might be an elite team.
I’ll admit, I was pretty damn pumped watching Kirk & Co. make the Badgers look like a team you pay for an early season tune-up, but the further we get from that score going final, the more I find myself questioning this sudden change in the attitude of Hawkeye Nation, even if it’s only my own. I keep asking myself questions like, Is beating up on Wisconsin, this year, really the stick by which we measure this team? Was Wisconsin’s “elite” defense really “elite”? And most importantly, is it realistic to think that a good showing against maybe the worst Wisconsin team in the last 3 decades enough for me to say that we’re back on the right track?
I’m not sure I’m ready to believe just yet.
Exhibit A: The Wisconsin Rush Defense
Going into the game on Saturday we had been told by, well, pretty much the entire sporting world that Wisconsin’s rush defense was “elite”. We knew their secondary was suspect, but Iowa definitely didn’t win that game on the back of Mark Gronowski’s passing performance. I mean, it’s not that he was bad, he was pretty good, but 107 yards on 17 attempts, 0 TDs and a pick (I still don’t know how he didn’t see Howard coming open on that fade) didn’t beat the Badgers. No, it was a combination of great defensive plays (2 picks by Offensive Lineman and a fumble recovery) and 210 yards rushing on 36 carries (that’s 5.8 ypc) against Wisconsin’s “elite” rush defense that put Iowa in the driver’s seat.
So, is Wisconsin’s rushing defense really that good? Let’s look at their other opponents rushing stats:
Miami (OH) – 148.3 ypg (4.3 ypc average)
Wisconsin held them to 34 yards on 22 carries (23% of their season average). That’s pretty good, like, really good. Miami’s average is bolstered a bit by the 264 yards they put up against FCS Lindenwood, but still, holding any team under 50 yards on the ground is, well, elite.
Middle Tennessee State – 82.8 ypg (3.2 ypc)
Wisconsin held the Blue Raiders to 33 yards on 28 carries, which is kind of insane tbh, but MTSU is not a very good team (1-5) and they are definitely not good at running the ball.
Alabama – 126.5 ypg (3.7 ypc)
Bama was able to put up 72 yards on 22 carries against the badgers (3.27 ypc), so Wiscy held them under their average, but Bama was feasting on their secondary (Ty SImpson was 24/29 for 382 yards and 4 TDs that night), so I’m not sure that DeBoer was all that concerned about not quire hitting their per game average on the ground that night. Either way, a solid performance against a somewhat diminished Crimson Tide.
Maryland – 99.3 ypg (3.4 ypc)
Maryland ran for 61 yards on 23 carries in Madison (2.65 ypc) which, again, is significantly below their normal average. But not unlike Bama, they were far more focused on the Badgers secondary, and they throw about 60% of the time anyway, so I’m not sure this is a huge win for the Badgers.
Michigan – 216.3 ypg (6.0 ypc)
The Badgers did hold the Wolverines to 175 yards (5.14 ypc), which is well below their average, but Michigan is, really, the first team Wisconsin played this season that is committed to running the ball, a lot. Michigan is 60/40 run (especially with Bryce Underwood under center). This is the only team they had faced (aside from the RedHawks and the Tide – dead even at 34.5 rush/pass per game) that isn’t at least 60/40 pass. The first time they had to go toe to toe with an OLine built to run block, they gave up nearly double their avg. in yards per carry.
Iowa – 184 ypg (4.7 ypc)
Iowa rolled into Madison and put up 210 yards on the ground at 5.83 ypc. Now, you could chalk this up to Iowa being rested off a bye and the Badgers coming off a tough trip to the Big House, but Mark Gronowski wasn’t involved in the run game much at all and the Hawks had 3 different backs running through pretty big holes all night. Sucks that Kamari didn’t get one more carry, just needed 4 yards to break 100..
What does any of the above really mean? I dunno, I’m just not sold that Wisconsin’s run defense is as good as they were made out to be, and I’m pretty sure that OSU, Oregon, Washington, Indiana, and Illinois will be doing just about whatever they want against Badgers front seven.
Exhibit B: Wisconsin’s Offense
That may be the single worst offensive performance I’ve seen from a Wisconsin team in my life. Granted, I don’t really remember a time before Barry Alvarez in Madison, so I know that it has happened, but good gravy was that hard fun to watch.
Luke Fickell has managed to completely destroy Wisconsin’s football identity in just 2.5 seasons. Gone are the OLinemen the size of a house. Gone are the perennial 1,000 yard rushers that look like they could juke their way out of a phonebooth (or just run right through you a la Ron Dayne). I think Iowa’s defense is good, maybe even really good, but I mean, you all watched the same game I did right? I’m pretty sure Albany’s offense is better than what we saw from the Badger’s Saturday night.
I give you these two clips and rest my case:
Exhibit C: Iowa’s Passing Offense
Listen, I love seeing competent play coming from an Iowa QB. I loved seeing RVZ and Dayton Howard on the field at the same time. I love a QB that is not routinely completing 70% of his passes, isn’t a guaranteed sack, and can run the sneak, but let’s be real, 109 yards passing at 4.6 ypa and 0 TDs through the air isn’t going to cut it against teams that have their shit together. It may be more than enough to beat Penn State next week, maybe even the Golden Flecks, but if you think that we’re going to beat Oregon, USC, or Nebraska with that kind of stat line, well, then I’ve got some lovely beachfront property down here in AZ that I’d like to talk to you about.
This isn’t just about Gronowski being healthy, this is about an inability (so far this season) to create any real explosive plays through the air. I mean, he’s thrown for 3 total TDs this year, that’s less than half as many as he’s run for. If this team keeps playing the way it has the last couple of weeks, I can definitely see 3 more wins on the schedule, maybe even a 4th, but let’s maybe temper our expectations a bit.
Closing Arguments
I don’t want to ask myself these questions over and over again, I really don’t. I want to look at this team and see a path to a 10-2 / 9-3 type season with some big wins over teams that no one thought we could beat. I mean, this team is about 5 plays away from being 6-0 with wins over two ranked opponents. If Moulton had been available I think we would have beaten the Clowns handily, and I’m pretty confident that we beat Indiana with Gronowski in the 4th quarter. So maybe the fact that Indiana went to Autzen last weekend and beat Oregon (have to think the visit to Kinnick helped them get used to the noise) after barely escaping from Iowa City should make me feel better about this team. I mean hell, we lost to them by 7 (you’ll never get me to count that stupid safety) and so did Oregon, there’s some kind of transitive property there I’m sure, so maybe we can beat Oregon in Iowa City in a few weeks, but I kind of doubt it.
Maybe this year will be the year that Iowa finally figures out how to cross two time zones and win a regular season game on the west coast, maybe, but I kind of doubt it. I mean, USC took Michigan to the shed last weekend and their only loss came at Illinois (crossing two time zones is tough) by 2 points. Maybe we can beat the Trojans at their house, but I don’t like the odds.
And last but not least, there’s Nebraska. I mean yeah, we can always beat Nebraska, because Nebraska is as good at beating themselves as anyone else, so that’s a toss up, even in Lincoln and especially if Penn State is swirling around Matt Rhule and there’s a lot of talk about him leaving, I could see that team coming apart at the seams. But they’re still ranked, and likely will be on the day after Thanksgiving. I really hope that the Hawkeyes are ranked by then as well, but I’m not counting on it.
I guess what I’m trying to say is this, let’s just try not to get too high or too low the next couple of weeks. Penn State is falling apart and Minnesota, well, isn’t very good either (god the UW/UM game this year may be the Sickos superbowl), but there’re two very good teams, and one that might be pretty good, left, so maybe we should just settle down and try to be realistic, because there’s a huge difference between 10-2 and 6-6, and both of those records are still on the table for this team.
As always, GO HAWKS!!!
