Things have been a little unpredictable lately with the Cubs. They won their least likely to win game in Pittsburgh while winning a couple where the matchup looked decent. So it’s always nice to win one that looks good on paper. Not only did the Cubs win this one, but it was pretty convincing. If you are someone who didn’t think the Cardinals would be good this year, then just about everything that you saw was on display tonight. They had some suspect defense that contributed to a couple of Cub rallies,
their pitching was shaky and there was even a pretty sketchy baserunning decision.
On the other side, all of the things that can be good about this Cub team were on display. Ben Brown dominated, throwing seven. Another time, when he pitches this well, he might get a chance to start the eighth inning. His pitch count wasn’t immense and his pitches per inning was actually pretty low. But he’s still building his pitch count a bit and though I didn’t look at a weather report, he did look to have worked up a pretty good sweat and I saw shorts and tank tops at the park all of the way to the end. So I’ll guess it was a late spring St. Louis night where it was a bit hot and muggy. It wasn’t the right recipe for a rare push of a starter into the eighth inning, but it was adjacent.
Behind Ben, the defense made some nice plays to help keep him out of trouble and that pitch count low. And at the plate, the Cubs showed a bit of a relentless approach and a few timely hits. It shows up as just 3-for-14 with runners in scoring position and 14 left on base. But that’s because the Cubs managed 12 hits, drew thee walks, and were aided by three Cardinal errors. That’s a lot of traffic in a nine-inning game. Cardinal starter Kyle Leahy did a nice job escaping trouble in his 4.1 innings of work. The Cubs did virtually all of their damage with one out in this game, with just one run scoring on a sacrifice fly that was the second out of the inning.
Once again, the leverage went away from this game. Jacob Webb got the eighth inning in what was a three-run lead at the time. Daniel Palencia threw the ninth even though the lead was five by the time he got in there. There just haven’t been any save situations.
The team is 25-18 since starting the team at 7-9. It’s been a crazy path to get here, but that 25-18 stretch is more than a quarter of the season and would be a 94-win pace. So that’s a 94-win pace over their last 43 and an 88-win pace overall. If injuries do not derail this team too badly, I still think they can be a 91-win team (splitting the difference between those two numbers). It’s not always a work of art, but this team still does a lot of things well. If this team stays competitive like this, the front office will add at the deadline, even if it isn’t super flashy. The Brewers are definitely good again, but it remains to be seen if they are run away and hide good again this year. Their pitching looks better this year, but their offense doesn’t feel out of this world.
Buckle up, there’s a wild ride ahead over these last 103 games.
Three Positives:
- Ben Brown threw seven innings, allowing three hits and a walk while striking out six. He looked very good. This Brown with a healthy Justin Steele and Cade Horton is a pipe dream, but it sure would have been interesting.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong will have a cycle some day. He had four hits including a double and a homer in this one. He was also hit by a pitch and made some terrific defensive plays. This was his fourth career four-hit game and second against the Cardinals.
- Ian Happ had a single and a double and scored a run.
Game 59, May 30: Cubs 6, Cardinals 1 (32-27)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
- Superhero: Ben Brown (.280). 7 IP, 23 BF, 3 H, BB, ER, 6 K (W 2-2)
- Hero: Pete Crow-Armstrong (.240). 4-5, HR, 2B, HBP, 2 RBI, 2 R
- Sidekick: Nico Hoerner (.120). 2-6, RBI, SB
THREE GOATS:
- Billy Goat: Seiya Suzuki (-.084). 1-5, 2B, R
- Goat: Dansby Swanson (-.065). 0-3, 2 BB, R
- Kid: Ian Happ (-.058). 2-5, 2B, R
WPA Play of the Game: With runners on first and second and one out, the Cubs up two, Ben Brown got Ivan Herrera to ground into an around the horn double play to end the inning. (.137)
Cardinals Play of the Game: With the bases loaded and two outs in the fourth, the game was scoreless. Kyle Leahy struck out Dansby Swanson. (.088)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Game 58 Winner: Ian Happ with 90 of 110 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
- Michael Busch +21
- Ian Happ +10.5
- Nico Hoerner +10
- Alex Bregman/Brown +9.5
- Jameson Taillon/Phil Maton -9
- Matt Shaw -10
- Dansby Swanson -13
- Seiya Suzuki -27.5
Current Win Pace: 87.86 wins
Up Next: The third and final game of this series and an off day Monday after 10 straight games. With a win, the Cubs could win this series and salvage four wins over that 10 game stretch and distributing the four wins just about perfectly if you were only going to win four.
Jordan Wicks (0-1, 16.62, 4.1 IP) makes his second start of the season. He’ll hope to bounce back from a horrible first outing. The Cardinals did better against the Cub lefty Friday than they did against the Cub righty Saturday. Though that’s probably as much a Ben Brown thing as anything. Shōta Imanaga didn’t particularly get shelled Friday, but he did fail to come through in the biggest spots.
The Cardinals have 26-year-old lefty Matthew Liberatore (2-3, 4.76, 56.2 IP) starting. The former 16th overall pick by the Rays hasn’t won since May 7. Over his three non wins, he has allowed 11 runs in 14.2 innings of work. Neither of these guys is throwing well. The Cubs have a .731 OPS against left-handed pitchers, good for 10th overall. The Cardinals are at .689, 17th overall, so a bit of an edge for the Cubs. Liberatore had a really nice start against the Cubs in St. Louis last year and was the winner, allowing two runs over seven.
It feels like a slight edge for the Cardinals, but definitely winnable. Get this one and early win projections off of Fangraphs show the Cubs with a chance at five of six on the upcoming homestand. It’ll be fluid, but right at this very minute, the Cubs won’t face a team with a winning record after tomorrow until they see the Brewers at Wrigley Field on June 26. One team in there, the Blue Jays, is likely to be over .500 by the time they face the Cubs if their recent play is not a mirage.
I like the odds of the Cubs positioning themselves really well with a strong June.
