On Sunday, theKansas City Chiefs face the New York Jets in the early afternoon slot of Week 9 games. We welcome MacGregor Wells of Gang Green Nation— our sister SBNation site covering the Jets— for Five Questions with the Enemy.
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1.The Jets are 2-6, but five of their six losses have been decided by one score, including last week’s 38-33 loss after they led Las Vegas 30-21. What has prevented this team from closing out games it has been in position to win?
Part of this is always luck. Which team wins a one-score game often comes down to an untimely turnover, a costly penalty, an unlucky bounce, whatever. Things that are going to happen to any team, but happen at the wrong time to losing teams. However, the element that isn’t just bad luck for the Jets is bad coaching. The Jets have blown fairly big second-half leads. They have had comebacks come up just short. They have outplayed better teams only to lose late, and they have come out flat against lesser teams they should have beaten. The one stat that people keep on bringing up is a 100 – 6 deficit in the last two minutes of halves under Aaron Glenn’s “leadership.” I think the numbers have changed slightly since that stat came out, but you get the picture.
That kind of absurd imbalance in two-minute situations is the direct result of poor coaching. The Jets look completely lost in two-minute drills. How can an NFL team be that clueless and that ineffective in crunch time? It’s nuts. There are plenty of other coaching issues I could mention, but that one stat kind of encapsulates the general incompetence of the Jets coaching.
It’s frustrating because for so many years the Jets simply didn’t have the talent to be competitive. This year they have the talent. Oh, don’t get me wrong, this is no juggernaut roster. But unlike recent years, the Jets at least have the talent to be competitive in almost every game. They have been competitive. But they continue to lose. Thank you, Aaron Glenn.
2. Geno Smith has completed 69% of his passes for 1,913 yards, 12 touchdowns and only three interceptions during his return to New York. What has allowed Smith to play some of the most efficient football of his career during his second stint with the Jets?
Part of this is probably just good luck. Smith has always been a turnover-prone quarterback. He began this season with five straight interception-free games, but it seemed like a mirage. His judgment and field vision haven’t suddenly taken a quantum leap in the twilight of his career. Sure enough, Smith has thrown an interception in each of his last three games. Reversion to the mean is a powerful thing.
The other part is the talent that surrounds Smith on offense. The Jets have a good offensive line. They have multiple talented backs. They have solid tight ends, and they have three good receivers in Garrett Wilson, Adonai Mitchell, and rookie Omar Cooper. The defense is a mess, but the offensive talent is the best group the Jets have had in at least a decade. Geno Smith has benefited from the talent around him. Even so, the Jets have scored more than 25 points in a game just once all year, so for all the somewhat gaudy Geno stats, the bottom line is the Jets haven’t exactly lit up the scoreboard.
3. Garrett Wilson is currently in concussion protocol after catching six passes for 83 yards against the Raiders. If Wilson cannot play Sunday, which Jets playmaker will need to become the focal point of the offense?
Third-year running back Braelon Allen has been impressive since Breece Hall exited game three with a leg injury, thrusting Allen into the starting role. In the last five games, Allen has been one of the best running backs in the NFL. Hall is likely to finally be back in the lineup for the Jets on Sunday, but I’m hoping, probably in vain, that the Jets have seen that Allen is the better back.
Regardless of which back gets the bulk of the work, the Chiefs have been one of the best teams in the NFL in stopping the run, so if the Jets are to have any chance in this game, I would guess Geno Smith and the Jets receivers will need to have a big game. Omar Cooper might be the guy to look out for, as well as fellow rookie tight end Kenyon Sadiq. If Garrett Wilson doesn’t play, those two are the most talented weapons the Jets have in the passing game.
4. The Jets rank 11th in total defense, but they surrendered 38 points and allowed the Raiders to score touchdowns on all four of their red-zone possessions last week. What is the biggest vulnerability Kansas City should attempt to exploit in New York’s defense?
The Jets’ 11th ranking in total defense is a sham. The Jets defense stinks. They have one good pass rusher, rookie David Bailey. The interior defensive line is a shambles with both David Onyemata and T’Vondre Sweat out injured. The linebackers are slow and mostly ineffective. The same can be said about the cornerbacks. Safety Dane Belton has been a revelation in his first year with the Jets after spending his early career with the Giants. He’s been really good, especially against the run. The other safety, Minkah Fitzpatrick, is in steep decline, living on reputation after a stellar career.
This is an untalented Jets defense that had the good fortune to face some bad offenses, some backup quarterbacks and some teams with injury problems early in the year. Lately, the results have deteriorated badly. The Jets have allowed 26+ points on defense in each of the last three games. I expect that to be more of what we can expect from the Jets defense going forward.
This shouldn’t be a challenging game for the Kansas City offense. I expect Kenneth Walker to run wild against a porous Jets run defense, and I expect Patrick Mahomes to pick apart a mediocre Jets secondary. If the Jets have any chance for an unlikely upset on Sunday, it will probably have to be in a shootout. I just don’t see the Jets defense shutting down Mahomes, Walker, Rice and company.
5. The Jets have lost three consecutive games, while the Chiefs return home after dropping two straight and falling out of first place in the AFC West. How do you see Sunday’s game unfolding, including your final score prediction?
The Jets have one chance against the Chiefs: a Chiefs letdown. It isn’t always easy getting up for the dregs of the league. Sometimes you look past a lesser opponent. If the Chiefs come out flat, maybe the Jets can steal a win if the Jets offense plays up to its talent level. However, Kansas City is a very difficult venue for Chiefs opponents. Even if the Chiefs come out flat, it’s likely the Jets’ bad coaching will blow the opportunity for an upset. The gap between future Hall of Fame coach Andy Reid and future out-of-work coach Aaron Glenn is enormous. It will be difficult for the Jets to overcome that.
If the Chiefs don’t come out flat, this game shouldn’t be close. I am terrible at score predictions, but let’s go with Chiefs 27, Jets 16.
