The main news coming out of the Winter Meetings for the Guardians was an indication that the team may be reluctant to upgrade their offense for fear of blocking young hitters.
As quoted by Tim Stebbins
of MLB dot com, Antonetti said:
“We have a lot of players we want to give runway to and allow them to take the opportunity and help build on the experiences that they had from last year. That was the group of guys that was here and even another wave of guys who have not had those oppportunities at the Major League level.
The thing we are balancing – especially on the position-player side – is whoever we do bring in, which opportunities does that take away from the group that we have. We spent, like, three hours on that this morning, really talking through, ’Ok, if we bring this guy in, who’s not going to play?’ ”
When asked about offseason plans, manager Stephen Vogt, also, didn’t emphasize the position player side, but focused on the need to shore up the bullpen (two $1M relievers and Rule 5 pick later… is that job done??).
For what it’s worth, Paul Hoynes of Cleveland dot com seems to think these quotes represent the Guardians’ likely approach to the offseason, as he indicated he doesn’t believe they are pursuing outside bats (to Hoynes’ credit, he remarked that he didn’t agree with this perspective). Now, personally, I don’t know that I would read too much into Antonetti’s quotes. I think his main point was probably to help fans not expect a lineup overhaul and to focus in on the spots where an outside addition would make the most sense. As we have discussed here, over and over, those spots would seem to be a hitter who can spell Chase DeLauter in center, a hitter who can play first base or DH, and maybe, possibly, a short-term second baseman.
But, what if – for whatever reasons, cough, money, cough – the team doesn’t really plan on making any offensive additions? What are they seeing with the current roster that put up a team wRC+ of 86 in 2025 to give them optimism in 2026? As we wait for ZiPS projections to be published, the best we can do is look at Steamer’s projections for the Guardians’ 2026 roster and see what this computer system sees as a likely median outcomes for this group of hitters.
Best Lineup Guardians Can Assemble by Steamer Projections:
1. Kwan LF – 113 wRC+
2. DeLauter, CF – 106 wRC+
3. Ramirez, 3B – 127 wRC+
4. Manzardo, 1B – 115 wRC+
5. Rodriguez, DH – 104 wRC+
6. Kayfus, RF – 103 wRC+
7. Naylor, C – 99 wRC+
8. Brito, 2B – 96 wRC+
9. Rocchio, SS – 99 wRC+
Bench:
Jones, OF – 97 wRC+
Fry, C/1B/3B/RF – 94 wRC+
Schneemann, IF/OF – 84 wRC+
Hedges, C – 63 wRC+
(Valera, having received another minor-league option, is in Triple-A with a projected 101 wRC+ in this scenario, but you could swap him out with Kayfus here and have Kayfus as the depth piece if you prefer)
Last season, the nine hitters who received the most at-bats on the Guardians averaged 91.5 wRC+. This current projected group is seen as likely to put up an average of 106.8. Jumping by over 15 wRC+ would feel significantly more viable as an offense. So… IF you feel like trusting the projections, a standing pat offseason for the Guardians shouldn’t be cause for weeping and gnashing of teeth… provided they are willing to be aggressive for upgrades at the trade deadline and provided there are no significant injuries.
Some observations:
-One thing this lineup makes sense of, for me, is the news that the team is making asks of Manzardo to prepare for more time at first base. If Rodriguez, who is generally liked by projections systems, were to get an extended run as a hitter in the big leagues, it has to come as a primary DH. He is simply the worst fielder I have seen in a Guardians’ uniform.
-The lineup is still lefty-heavy, which is fine, but Brito and Rodriguez offer some good pop against LHP, as does Fry off the bench.
-I think we can be reasonably optimistic that Manzardo, DeLauter (if healthy) and Jose have good shots at beating these projections and the others don’t seem especially unrealistic.
-This is not a FAST roster. Quite the opposite. But, there is Travis Bazzana working his way up, with potential for Brito, if he hits, to move over to a RF or 1B role, and Bazzana provides good speed. Also, Petey Halpin and Kahlil Watson.
-This lineup requires the team to move on from Gabriel Arias and Jhonkensy Noel, who have no options remaining. I suspect that Arias would get that first utility infielder nod over Schneemann – for that reason – as Schnee has options and can be useful depth in Columbus. Arias is projected for an 83 wRC+, so that’s fine, as reluctant as I am to admit it.
I am not happy about the idea of standing pat, and I still expect the Guardians to figure out a way to add a couple other hitters when it’s all said and done. But, I do think it’s important to recognize that the current projections we have indicate the Guardians’ offense – as is – should be set for notable improvements in 2026… IF some young players can realize their potential.
