- Location: Annapolis, MD (Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium)
- Date/Time: Saturday, October 4th 12:00 p.m. EST
- Television: CBS
- Radio: KVOR AM 740, Colorado Springs
- Head-to-Head: Air Force leads the all-time series 34-23. They met last year, and Navy won
- in Colorado Springs by a score of 34-7.
For the second year in a row, Air Force will face Navy on the heels of a three game losing streak. And once again, the Midshipmen enter the contest undefeated. The biggest difference this season has to
be how the Falcons have gotten to this point. The offense is thriving under the command of Liam Szarka at quarterback. But as bad as the offense was at this point in the season last year, the 2025 defense is worse. If you washed last years rocky start from memory, let me remind you, this suggests that the defense is historically bad right now.
The Mids on the other hand are on the fringe of being ranked again. Brian Newberry’s squad has picked right up where they left off last year. In case you’ve forgotten, Navy beat Army to secure the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy, and then went on to beat Oklahoma in the Armed Forces Bowl. I guess you could say the United States Naval Academy is riding a wave of momentum right now. Meanwhile, the optimism of Air Force’s four game win streak to end the 2024 season has long since been salted away as they’ve yet to beat an FBS team in 2025.
The roles of these two programs have truly reversed over the past few seasons. For as bad as things may seem for a team that just lost three games in a row, there is still plenty of excitement in Colorado Springs. I know that may sound crazy for a team that has fallen flat on their face already going 0-3 in Mountain West Conference play. But with an emerging offense, and the number one goal every season still attainable in the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy, the turnaround of the entire season could start in Annapolis this Saturday.
If Troy Calhoun wants their November game against Army to yield spoils devised by former Air Force General, George Simler, they will have to first pull off one of the bigger upsets over Navy in this match-up’s history. We are going to look at all three phases of this weeks matchup before concluding with a prediction.
OFFENSE: Air Force < Navy
There are a lot of compelling arguments that could be made in favor of either one of these offenses. That argument only gets more compelling if you frame it in the context of what Air Force has done in the two games which Liam Szarka has been the quarterback, not just sharing time as he was for the first two games of the year. It seems to get overlooked that Mike Thiessen’s group has amassed over 1,000 yards and 72 points in the past two games. Even more ironic is the reality that this is an offense that averages 37 points per game, and has won just one of it’s four games.
The mere fact that this offense has clicked at level that makes a compelling case for rivaling what has been a spectacular offense of it’s own for Navy, is impressive. The Drew Cronic and Blake Horvath tandem have gotten the Mids operating at a level that the Navy faithful have been missing for some time. The Midshipmen are once again the top rushing attack in all of college football. And much of that is thanks to consistent offensive line play, setting things up for a dynamic backfield that includes Alex Tecza and Eli Heidenreich flanking Horvath. These are not they only guys that will hurt you from the Naval attack, but make no mistake, they are the most likely.
These are just a few of the reasons it’s hard to argue that Navy has the edge offensively. The sample size of the experience unit that remained largely intact from last year is simply greater than what Air Force can furnish. However, if Szarka continues this tear of going for 250+ through the air with 100+ on the ground, there’s not an argument that can be made that there is a more dangerous duel threat out there dealing right now. Horvath and Szarka both average a hair under 6 yards per carry, with the Naval QB gaining about 50 more total rush yards so far on the year. But remember, Szarka hasn’t started all four games, and he’s already thrown for 638 yards and five touchdowns, nearly all in two games. Compare that to Horvath who’s thrown for 500 yard and three tudd’s on the year, and you should start paying attention to what the Air Force QB has been cooking if you haven’t already.
DEFENSE: Air Force < Navy
Unlike the offensive comparison, there is not much to debate here. Without saying a thing about the former Navy Defensive Coordinator turned Head Coach’s impact, it’s pretty easy to illustrate why defense is the area where the Mids have the most decided advantage in this game. The Falcons defense has been downright bad. Tragically bad. Historically bad.
Ok, you get the point, the defense has been challenged. It’s a hard pill to swallow when you combine the fact that the Air Force defense has thrived for so many years under Brian Knorr, and they returned a defensive line that was expected to be a strength of this team. Something just isn’t right with this group. It’s well documented that an incredibly young and inexperienced secondary are taking their lumps. But a seasoned front seven, anchored by an All-Conference Nose-Guard in Payton Zdroik were expected to hold things down while the backend of the defense got their feet under them. Let’s be clear, Zdroik is not the problem. Maybe the problem is that they only have one 96 on that unit right now.
Every member of this defense that is on the two-deep at linebacker or in the secondary will be back next year should they choose to be. That can be a great thing if they develop and progress. Right now unfortunately, opposing offenses get get yards and points by whatever means they choose. The defense can’t slow down the run or the pass, much less get a critical stop. The last three games, all losses, have come at what is starting to look like good competition. But there is no way around it, when your defense ranks outside of top 100 in all of college football in seven major statistical categories, your not going to win games. And that is the reality that Air Force is living right now.
In case your wondering, Navy is 24th nationally against the run, 18th in red zone defense, 29th in total defense and 30th in scoring defense. Those are all 100 places or better ahead of their competitions defense on Saturday. Now would be a really great time for the Air Force defense to have a coming out party, led by a very experienced defensive line.
SPECIAL TEAMS: Air Force > Navy
The special teams units for both of these teams are pretty comparable when it comes to points associated. Both kickers, Kirkwood (Navy) and Medina (Air Force) are 2 for 3 on field goal attempts, and 100% on extra points. So neither has been leaned on heavily for scoring to this point in the season. But it’s only a matter of time before one of them is relied upon for securing a victory. That was almost the case for Kirkwood last week in Navy’s narrow victory versus Rice.
The reason I would lean towards Air Force in the special teams battle is simply Luke Freer. The Falcon Punter has been a field position weapon dating back to last season. Granted, field position hasn’t meant much in the grand scheme of things as opposing teams are just grinding out whatever yards exist between them and the endzone enroute to points. But that has nothing to do with Freer, who has been one of the best in the country at his trade. He’s on the Ray Guy Award watch list for a reason. With a booming average of 46.6 yards per punt, he is the all-time leader at the United States Air Force Academy.
PREDICTION
With the way that Liam Szarka, Cade Harris and the rest of the Air Force offense is clicking, it should be incredibly hard to pick any team over them. However, when your defense is struggling at an all-time level, it’s equally required historical offensive output just to prevent a blowout. The past two weeks are a perfect example. You could not ask for more from the offense, and it’s just not been enough.
Opposite them on Saturday will be a team that more than all but one other program, want to embarrass the Falcons. Brian Newberry’s squad have played in big games, won big games and gone from the kind or program that Air Force was last year, to one of the shining programs in the American Athletic Conference. Dare I say it, even a Darkhorse contender for a playoff spot.
Now, four of the last five match-ups have been fairly low scoring affairs. Last year being the outlier, which the aforementioned Navy offense was not having any problems finding the endzone. Interestingly enough, last weeks win over Rice, who also runs a variety of run-heavy option offense that can consume clock, was the one game that Navy didn’t hit that extra gear on offense. Maybe there is something to it, when facing another clock controlling opponent that Air Force can exploit.
It’s hard to take that view with a preponderance of evidence that is now 1/3 of the season, suggesting Air Force is going to struggle slowing anyone down right now on defense. You want to believe that trend will have to stop. I for one, think that if the offense can keep delivering, the defense will slowly close the gap with progression, making the Falcons a very undesirable opponent to see on the schedule. But there has been nothing to suggest that yet when you apply empirical data.
This team is asking far too much of the offense to beat a quality opponent right now. Much less a bitter rival that is still playing games of the utmost consequence as every single one of Navy’s season goals are still attainable. And the Falcons are standing between the Midshipmen and those aspirations.
Navy sings second, winning by a score of 31 – 24.
