Ahead of this year’s training camp, New England Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel explained that he was looking at his team’s performances in three distinct categories. There is the good, the bad, and, as he called
it, the s—t that gets you beat.
On Thursday night against the New York Jets, there were shades of all three. Ultimately, however, the good won out: the Patriots were able to take care of business and improve to 9-2 on the year behind a 27-14 victory. Still, if the coach wants to look at the Patriots through the three categories he established, who are we to disagree? So, let’s break down the Week 11 game in exactly that manner.
The good: Maye-Diggs connection
There are several areas that deserve to be highlighted, including TreVeyon Henderson scoring three touchdowns, the Patriots snapping a three-game streak of at least one turnover, or the defense coming through in the clutch yet again. However, our choice this week falls on the connection between quarterback Drake Maye and wide receiver Stefon Diggs.
In terms of numbers, the pair hooked up nine times for 105 yards — Diggs’ third 100-yard game of the season. While some meat was left on the bone, they were able to make several important plays on the day and consistently challenged the Jets through the air. Diggs finished with 5.3 total expected points added, or 0.48 per target, on the day.
On the year, the free agency pickup has now hauled in 59 passes from the second-year quarterback for 659 yards and a trio of touchdowns. He is leading the team in both receptions and receiving yards, as well as targets (72).
“It’s just football,” said Diggs after the game. “OTAs, to training camp, to practice throughout the year. Learning one another and finding those spots and doing what he feels comfortable with and, just doing my job. Obviously you get comfortable over the course of time, but everybody’s doing their job.”
Diggs doing his job helped the Patriots beat the Jets on Thursday, and has him well-positioned to earn some of his contract incentives: he is on track for 91 catches and 1,019 receiving yards, which would mean an extra $2 million coming his way.
The bad: QB scrambles
With wide receiver Garrett Wilson out due to a knee injury, the Jets’ primary weapon on offense was quickly identified and treated accordingly. The Patriots knew that they could not allow running back Breece Hall to beat them, and so they focused on slowing him down as best as they could.
They did a decent job at that, keeping him to 64 yards on a combined 16 carries and receptions. However, that stat line came at the expense of leakage elsewhere: especially on the opening drive, which resulted in a touchdown, quarterback Justin Fields was able to gain significant yards as a runner.
On the night, most of his damage came on scramble drills: Fields finished with 40 yards and four first downs on four scramble attempts. For comparison, he gained just 27 yards on seven schemed run plays.
“The quarterback tonight, faster than most of the guys we got and didn’t do a good enough job. We recovered a little bit, and we’ll have to try to continue to be better there,” said Mike Vrabel after the game. “But, you know, there’s plenty of opportunities in places where we play good defense. I have to remember that — that they can get a first down, and we can still stop them. It doesn’t have to be three-and-out every time.”
The s—t that gets you beat: Early-down run game
Looking simply at the fact that TreVeyon Henderson scored two rushing touchdowns, one could get the impression that the Patriots had a successful day running the football against the Jets. However, that was not the case: their running game struggled, and they finished the day with only 68 yards on 25 carries for an average of 2.7 yards per run.
The early-down run game in particular was an issue on Thursday night. On first and second down, the Patriots registered -0.15 expected points added per run as well as a success rate of only 32%. On third-down runs, for comparison, New England posted an EPA of 0.26 per run as well as a 50% success rate.
The Patriots’ issues on early-down runs are not happening in a vacuum. Instead, they also impact how the rest of a series is played. Just look at New England’s average distance on third downs: in order to gain a fresh set of downs, the offense had to cover 7.7 yards on average. The fact that it still converted on half of those situations is a testament to the entire unit, but there are questions whether or not living in third-and-long repeatedly is a sustainable way of playing offense.
That being said, Mike Vrabel did sound quite happy with the state of his run game and the rookie Henderson in Thursday.
“I would say the best couple of runs he had were there late in the game when it was tough sledding, and we’re in five-minute, and they know we’re going to run, and they’re blitzing and everything else,” he said. “Looked like we were going to be short, and he’s able to knife through there and keep his pads down and pick up a huge first down. He’s executed, whether that’s a checkdown or a touchdown in the back of the end zone. No home runs tonight, but I thought he grinded out pretty much what was there.”
