Game notes
- Time and date: Thursday, November 12 at 8:00 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPN
- Location: Raymond James Stadium — Tampa, FL
- Spread: Memphis (-3.5)
- Over/under: 49.5
- All-time series: Memphis leads, 10-4
- Last meeting: Memphis 34, South Florida 31 — October 25, 2025
- Current streak: Memphis, 5 (2019-25)
Setting the scene
Strange things happen on Thursday nights in the American Conference. This marks the seventh-straight week of an American matchup featured on Thursday night. Five of the previous six were decided by one score. Three went to overtime.
One common theme of all six: the home team won.
South Florida plays host to Memphis on Thursday night in its penultimate game at Raymond James Stadium, before the upcoming move to an on-campus venue. Coming off a bye, the Tigers have an opportunity at to inch closer to their
first conference championship appearance since 2019. However, the Bulls look to utilize homefield advantage and pull off the upset on a short week.
Memphis has won five consecutive matchups in the series, highlighted by second half double-digit comebacks in 2020 and 2025.
Memphis Tigers outlook
Memphis (7-2, 4-1 American) is coming off a bye, but last time the Tigers took the field against Army, they played their most complete game of the season. Everything clicked offensively, while the defense stifled the Black Knights’ high-powered rushing attack en route to a convincing 49-22 win. Now, Memphis needs to replicate that two-way dominance on the road, where it is 2-2 this year.
Outside of an outlier game at Tulane where the unit committed six turnovers, the offense is clicking on all cylinders. Memphis has produced 38 or more points in five of its last six games, currently boasting the nation’s No. 14 scoring offense (37.6 points per game) and No. 5 total offense (513 yards per game). The offense features tremendous balance, as the only unit in the country to rank top-10 in rushing and top-15 in passing.
Marcus Stokes rose to 10th in passing after a spectacular 371-yard, 4-touchdown showing against Army. Stokes has eclipsed 300 yards in three-straight starts and five of his last seven. Accuracy has also been a defining features of his game, completing 69.1 percent of attempts and refraining from an interception in five of his last six games. Only three FBS quarterbacks have accounted for more passing touchdowns than Stokes’ 25, and the junior has also rushed for three scores in his last two games, and he offers a splash of mobility in his game.
The run game is primarily handled by the explosive Jaylin Carter, who is 71 yards away from hitting 1,000 on the season. The nation’s 13th-leading rusher has mastered the breakaway run, and many of his 10 touchdowns this year came from long distance. With Stokes and Carter as the key initiators, Memphis’ offense ranks first in the FBS with six 70-yard gains this season.
Manny Covey also lends a hand to Memphis’ run game, contributing 418 yards on a 5.4 average. Through the air, the Tigers feature a slew of skill position talents that defenses must account for. Not a single Tiger has 500 receiving yards, but four players have at least 400 — tight end Hunter Tipton and wide receivers Stonka Burnside, Jermane Hayes, and Jemyri Davis. Tipton is among the nation’s top tight ends in production with 495 yards and five touchdowns. Meanwhile, Hayes is a rising talent, recording 175 yards and three touchdowns across his last two games.
The Tigers have only committed seven turnovers this season outside the Tulane game, and the defense has done a tremendous job at reclaiming possession. Memphis’ 18 takeaways rank sixth in the FBS, and the team sits at a plus-5 in turnover margin on the season.
Takeaways have been an essential foundation for stops, especially since the Tigers rank 122nd in run defense, allowing 188 yards per game on a 4.9 average. While Memphis’ run game is explosive, opponents’ run games against the Tigers can also share that explosiveness. Only eight teams have allowed more 40-yard runs than the Tigers this year.
However, Memphis is elite up front when it comes to pressuring the quarterback. The defense regularly generates pressure through defensive linemen J’Mond Tapp, Elijah Kinsler, and Taylor Burton without needing to blitz significantly. Thanks to the commanding front, Memphis features one of the better pass defenses in the country. The Tigers regularly force inefficient performances from opposing quarterbacks, who complete just 56.8 percent of passes, completing nine touchdowns while throwing 11 interceptions.
Four different Tiger defensive backs have multiple interceptions this season. Former Oklahoma State strong safety Dylan Smith leads the team with three, while free safety Ahmere Foster and cornerbacks Ellis Ellis Jr. and Chauncey Logan Jr. have two apiece. This opportune defense has swung several close games, recently relying on an overtime interception to knock off East Carolina.
South Florida Bulls outlook
South Florida (6-3, 2-3 American) is coming off yet another heartbreaking defeat. The Bulls still have not lost a game by more than one score in the Brian Hartline era. In the three defeats, Temple scored a go-ahead touchdown with 3:08 remaining, UTSA scored with 15 seconds left, and last week, East Carolina hit a walk-off 55-yard field goal.
Although mathmetically alive, the Bulls likely lost their shot at their first American Championship Game appearance. But they aren’t far off. The difference between 6-3 and 8-1, or even 9-0, can be found within the offense. USF ranks 88th nationally with 25.9 points per game, but the Bulls are even further down the list in offensive production, checking in at 125th with 316 yards per game.
USF has yet to exceed 30 points against FBS competition this season, and even in its lone 30-point performance, it relied on two defensive touchdowns to reach that total. Despite the offensive struggles, the unit takes exceptional care of the ball. South Florida is the only FBS team yet to throw an interception in 2026, and it has the fourth-fewest turnovers in the country at four.
Starting quarterback Michael Van Buren Jr. missed last Friday’s East Carolina game due to injury, paving the way for Luke Kromenhoek to make his first start of the season. Kromenhoek shined against UAB with designed runs, racking up 92 rushing yards in the Bulls’ most recent win. East Carolina provided better resistance against the mobile quarterback, but Kromenhoek remained efficient with a 17-of-21 showing and 179 passing yards in the narrow defeat.
Running back D.J. Crowther got banged up against ECU, adding another key injury to the Bulls’ offense. Crowther had been the most reliable player this season with 699 rushing yards and seven touchdowns, exceeding the century mark three times. Additionally, he ranks fourth on the team in receptions. If unable to go, Jason Collins Jr. will take on a significantly expanded role offensively.
USF’s offense cannot be methodical against Memphis. It must go for explosives, which haven’t been abundant this season. The Bulls didn’t produce a single 30-yard gain last week, and they have generated just three plays spanning at least 40 yards on the season — only Eastern Michigan has fewer. Through the air, USF looks toward Bryson Rodgers and Joshua Porter for offensive verticality. The duo is responsible for a bulk of the receiving numbers, hauling in a combined 51 receptions for 669 yards and five touchdowns.
Although the offense is still a work in progress, South Florida’s defense is close to a consistent, finished product. The Bulls are 10th nationally in scoring defense at 15.1 points allowed per game, and they rank top-25 in fewest yards per play surrendered. Only two teams exceeded 20 points on USF this year: UTSA managed 31, while Army compiled 24.
USF has excelled against the ground and air alike, and the unit is particularly sturdy in the red zone, where it only allows a touchdown on 40.9 percent of opponent trips inside the 20-yard line (10th-best in FBS). Additionally, the unit knows how to create points on its own, scoring three touchdowns off scoop-and-scores in their previous three games.
Former 5-star defensive end recruit C.J. Hicks is enjoying a resurgent season in Tampa. The Ohio State transfer reunited with Hartline and ranks atop the team in sacks (5.0) and tackles for loss (6.5), while playing a role in the turnover battle with two forced fumbles and two fumble recoveries. Inside linebacker Grayson “Pup” Howard has been another star transfer addition, bringing 43 tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss, and 2.5 sacks of production to this elite defense.
The Bulls are a plus-6 in the turnover margin, checking in at ninth nationally with eight fumble recoveries. They only have two interceptions though and have gone eight consecutive games without recording one.
Prediction
Recent data points suggest South Florida won’t be able to match Memphis’ firepower, considering the lopsided matcuhp between the No. 125 and No. 5 total offenses in the FBS. However, USF’s defense has been incredibly consistent, and the unit has kept it in every game — a major reason why the Bulls haven’t lose by more than one score this year.
Memphis’ defense is susceptible to allowing explosives, and some struggling offenses — including East Carolina and Tulane — had some of their better showings against the Tigers, so there is room for USF to capitalize.
While USF’s defense will provide Memphis more resistance than usual, Marcus Stokes and Jaylin Carter will ultimately prove too much for the Bulls in the fourth quarter. Memphis escapes Tampa with a close victory, remaining in prime position for that long-awaited conference championship appearance.
Prediction: Memphis 26, South Florida 20
