You can go from savior to discarded dream quickly in the NFL, but the speed of that transition can still sometimes surprise us. Two years ago, Michael Penix Jr. was one of the most-discussed players in the NFL after the Falcons shockingly drafted him 8th overall just weeks after signing Kirk Cousins to a lucrative, multi-year deal. He was all promise at that point, and a solid stint at the end of the 2024 season as a starter whetted our appetites for more.
But 2025 was, if not a total disaster for
Penix, a deeply inconsistent season. He struggled with accuracy at times, appeared downbeat and downcast at others, and had his season end prematurely during one of his better performances of the year with his third career ACL tear, this one to a different knee. Penix was 30th among qualifying quarterbacks in completion percentage in 2025, 24th in rating, and 51st in adjusted completion percentage per PFF. There were also glimpses of the quarterback we hoped he could be, as he was also 14th in adjusted net yards per passing attempt, 15th in passing success rate, lowest among all qualifying quarterbacks in interception rate, and 7th among all quarterbacks with double digit starts in pressure to sack rate. I’d lean negative on his season overall, but there was enough of a Rohrschach test in that performance that you could lean either way.
What we know is outweighed by what we don’t know, which makes the evaluation even harder. Was Penix limited to shotgun and pistol snaps because he can’t and won’t be comfortable under center, or because Zac Robinson thought he couldn’t be, and an inflexible play caller refused to give him the chance? Is Penix’s scattershot accuracy something that he can overcome or at least tamp down on more consistently, or is he doomed to be always whiff on a certain number of attempts? Will his mobility, already a topic of discussion, be a passable status quo or even more diminished following the ACL injury? Can he get and stay healthy for long enough to show the NFL he is a terrific young quarterback?
These are big, thorny questions that can’t be answered right now, which is a problem for team and player heading into a critical third season. We simply have not seen enough Michael Penix Jr. to know what kind of improvement he’s capable of with more time, and what he’ll look like with an entirely new offensive coaching staff. The man has fewer than 400 passing attempts in the NFL, as Josh Kendall of The Athletic noted the other day. We also don’t know what level of commitment he’ll get from that new coaching staff, which makes forecasting his future even more difficult. What we do know is that the arm talent remains intriguing, the Falcons probably aren’t going to invest in a long-term deal for Tua given his concerning concussion history, and thus if he can get healthy he’s going to get some kind of opportunity. What he does with that opportunity will determine his future, both in Atlanta and quite possibly in the NFL.
It both helps and hurts Penix that his chief competition has questions of his own. Tua is a reliable checkdown merchant known for short-to-intermediate accuracy when he’s playing well, and when firing on all cylinders that’s an intriguing skillset for a screen-heavy passing game fueled by big targets in Drake London and Kyle Pitts and speedy YAC threats in Zachariah Branch, Jahan Dotson, and Bijan Robinson. But Tua hasn’t been at his best of late, is an inconsistent-at-best threat downfield, and carries significant injury risks with ailments and those aforementioned concussions piling up. The lack of commitment from the team to Tua and the possibility that he could exit for multiple weeks at any time gives Penix an opening, but at first blush Tua’s ability to feed a cast of playmakers with greater reliability than Penix has shown to this point give him a shot to grab and keep the starting job if he just stays on the field. In a year that seems to be about evaluating the roster and who fits, both quarterbacks have a shot to make their case for a starting job in 2027 and beyond, but it’s fair to say Penix has more at stake given that he’s earlier in his career and doesn’t have the experience to point to if he falters.
In 2026, the player we hoped would be a franchise quarterback still has a chance to prove that he is, in other words, but must first return to full health. Tua’s signing and relative good health give the veteran an early leg up on the starting quarterback competition, with Penix’s fortunes depending heavily on how quickly he can get back on the field and start slinging the ball. If it’s in June or early July and he impresses, there’s a chance to take the job and keep it. If he doesn’t, the Falcons may well be drafting their next franchise quarterback in 2027. That huge level of variance and the questions swirling around Penix, and what that means for this team both now and in the future, makes the young quarterback the most significant wild card and question mark for the Falcons this year.
