Happy Fourth of July! I hope everyone has fun plans and that the Cardinals celebrate with another 17 runs or so this evening. Today, I want to take a step back from the chaotic, and entertaining, iteration of the Cardinals and indulge in a little nostalgia by checking in on where some of the most memorable teams of this century were sitting on Independence Day. What is the point of this exercise? Mostly just for fun, but I will say, these snapshot views are a good reminder that anything can happen
in baseball, and usually does.
We will start our journey a quarter century ago at the dawn of the Albert Pujols era.
2001
Entering play on July 4, 2001, the Cardinals’ record stood at 40-41 after having dropped their sixth straight game and ninth out of their last 11 the day before. They trailed Chicago by seven games in the NL Central and were three games behind the Astros.
Despite the mediocre record, the team looked pretty loaded on offense. Jim Edmonds was coming off a 6.5-WAR introduction to St. Louis in 2000. Mark McGwire had struggled mightily, but he was also coming off a 195 wRC+ season himself. The real excitement was with a couple of young guns leading the way. JD Drew was having a coming-out party in his age-25 season with 21 home runs and 3.8 WAR through the first half. There was also a rookie named Albert Pujols who was off to a historic start to his career.
On the pitching side of things, Matt Morris had returned to the rotation after missing 1999 with an injury and pitching 31 games out of the bullpen the year before. His record was 10-4 and he carried the fifth-best ERA in baseball at 2.65. Darryl Kile was coming off a 20-win season the year before and was the only other effective starting pitcher, having posted 1.6 WAR through the first half of the season. After those two, veterans Andy Benes and Dustin Hermanson had been largely ineffective. Rick Ankiel had started six games in April and May, but after averaging over a walk per inning, was sent to rookie ball to sort out his problems. The Cardinals had another highly touted pitching prospect in Bud Smith, who had been given his first start several weeks prior. Smith was the 39th-ranked prospect in baseball heading into the season and was excelling in Memphis as a 21-year-old.
The lineup the Cardinals rolled out on July 4 against the Brewers was missing Drew, but it was still a solid group.
*Stats through July 3
Game Recap
The game was a relative laugher as the Cardinals scored two in the third, one in the fifth, and three in the seventh to build a 6-0 lead in a game that ended 7-2. Fernando Vina hit his third home run of the season and Bobby Bonilla added a pinch-hit bomb in the ninth to back 6.2 scoreless innings from Mike Matthews.
How did the season play out?
The Cardinals stopped the bleeding with that July 4 win, but they limped along for another month carrying a record of 57-55 after being walked off by the Expos on August 8. The next day, Matt Morris pitched the team to a 9-6 win and kicked off an 11-game winning streak. When the dust settled, the Cardinals had 93 wins and took home the NL Wild Card after losing the divisional tiebreaker to the Astros.
The second-half surge was fueled on the offensive side by continued excellence from Pujols (151 wRC+) and Edmonds (161 wRC+), and even a slight rebound from McGwire (22 home runs and 119 wRC+).
The real difference was on the pitching side. Morris continued his torrid pace, putting up another 3.5 WAR while winning 12 games in the second half to finish 22-8. Darryl Kile kicked it into gear with a 2.74 ERA across his last 17 starts. In a brilliant move, Walt Jocketty flipped Ray Lankford for veteran righty Woody Williams. Williams went 7-1 in the season’s last two months while further stabilizing the rotation. Finally, Bud Smith was given 13 second-half starts and pitched to the tune of a 3.86 ERA, no-hitting the Padres on September 3. It would, no doubt, be the start of an exceptional career for the 21-year-old prodigy.
The season would end with a Game 5 loss in the NLDS to the Diamondbacks, led by Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson.
Fast-forwarding five years and about 200 Pujols home runs later brings us to…
2006
The Cardinals had come off of consecutive 100-win seasons in 2004 and 2005. The roster had undergone some reshuffling over the offseason, particularly on the offensive side, as Mark Grudzielanek (2.8 WAR) and Reggie Sanders (1.7 WAR) left via free agency and Larry Walker (2.2 WAR) retired. Still, the MV3 was in place, with Yadier Molina and David Eckstein also in the fold and big offseason acquisition Juan Encarnacion expected to provide solid supporting production. Through June 18, the team was humming along as expected at 42-26 and seemingly tracking toward another 100-win season. Then came an eight-game losing streak. Heading into play on July 4, the Cardinals had lost 11 of their last 14 and had seen their division lead shrink to just one game.
As the Cardinals prepared to play the Braves on July 4, their lineup looked less intimidating than in years past.
*Stats through July 3
Pujols and Rolen were chugging along, but Jim Edmonds had battled injuries and was off to a slow start. Chris Duncan had been recalled from Memphis and had provided some pop with three home runs in his first 18 games, but he had not yet walked and was an adventure in the outfield.
Chris Carpenter was on the bump and was following up his 2005 Cy Young campaign with an excellent first half. He carried a 2.85 ERA and had already accrued 1.9 WAR. After him, the rotation was bleak. Jason Marquis, Jeff Suppan, Mark Mulder, and Sidney Ponson had made the majority of the starts and all carried ERAs that started with a five or higher. Top prospect Anthony Reyes had just been inserted into the rotation and carried a 3.30 ERA through his first five starts. The bullpen was equally as troubling. Star closer Jason Isringhausen had saved 24 games in 30 opportunities and carried a 3.89 ERA, but his underlying metrics were terrifying with a FIP over six. Rookie Adam Wainwright was off to a decent start, and veteran Braden Looper had been solid, but, overall, it was an uninspiring group.
Game Recap
The game was relatively low drama. The Cardinals got two doubles apiece from Jim Edmonds and Yadier Molina as well as a home run from Juan Encarnacion en route to a 6-3 win. Carpenter was not his usual dominant self, but he got through five innings with only two runs allowed and handed the ball to Wainwright for two scoreless innings. The Braves threatened in the eighth inning, but Isringhausen was summoned to record a clean four-out save.
How did the season play out?
This July 4 win was not a grand turning point in the regular season. The win lifted the team’s record to 45-37, but the Cardinals played sub-.500 ball the rest of the way, finishing 38-41. Fortunately, the Astros limped along to an 82-80 record and the Cardinals were able to squeeze into the playoffs with an 83-win season. Chris Duncan and Scott Spiezio would provide just enough second-half firepower to offset the slumping Edmonds and Rolen, and Pujols would continue to obliterate the league, finishing with a 174 wRC+. On the pitching side, Jeff Suppan turned things around with a 3.13 ERA over his final 16 starts and Chris Carpenter cruised to another five WAR season. The rest of the rotation remained a dumpster fire. Midseason acquisition Jeff Weaver had a 5.18 ERA. After the promising start, Reyes struggled to a 6.02 ERA the remainder of the season. Not to be outdone, Jason Marquis went 4-10 with a 6.33 ERA over his final 16 starts.
We all know the rest of the story: the Cardinals made it all the way to the World Series before losing to the juggernaut Detroit Tigers in three games.
The next few years were not as kind to the Cardinals as Edmonds and Rolen aged and moved on, but Pujols was still there preparing for the final year of his contract as the 2011 season began.
2011
The Cardinals, now five years removed from their magical World Series run, had not won a playoff game since 2006 and had missed the playoffs entirely in 2007, 2008, and 2010. Still, they had the consensus best player in baseball in Albert Pujols and a legitimate MVP candidate in Matt Holliday playing second fiddle. Yadier Molina had emerged as a defense-first, borderline star-level player, and Colby Rasmus was looking to build on the 4-WAR season he posted as a 23-year-old in 2010. The only real offseason move was taking a flyer on 35-year-old Lance Berkman, who had seen his wRC+ decline the last three seasons.
Entering play on July 4, the Cardinals had the third-best offense in baseball by wRC+ at 110. Albert Pujols had fractured his wrist against Kansas City two weeks prior and was expected to be out four to six weeks. Pujols was having his worst season to date, having amassed just 1.5 WAR and a 136 wRC+. Still, the offense was looking pretty solid thanks to a resurgent Berkman and the progression of Jon Jay and David Freese, who had gotten their feet wet in 2010.
The Cardinals lineup facing off against the Reds and Johnny Cueto was:
*Stats through July 3
Chris Carpenter was given yet another Independence Day assignment. He came into the game at 3-7 with an ERA of 4.00, but his underlying metrics were solid enough to support a WAR of 1.7. With co-ace Adam Wainwright out for the season, Jaime Garcia was leading the staff with a WAR of 2.1. Kyle Lohse was enjoying a bounce-back year and carried a 2.97 ERA through the first half of the season. Jake Westbrook and Kyle McClellan filled out the back half of the rotation and were providing roughly replacement-level production between them. The bullpen had accrued -0.8 WAR thanks to horrific performances to date from Ryan Franklin, Miguel Batista, Brian Tallet, and Maikel Cleto. On the positive side, Jason Motte, Mitchell Boggs, and Eduardo Sanchez were doing an admirable job setting up for closer Fernando Salas. All four pitchers carried ERAs below three to keep the bullpen afloat.
Game Recap
Unlike our previous two Fourth of July jamborees, this one was anything but a laugher. Carpenter locked horns with Reds ace Johnny Cueto. The game remained scoreless until the bottom of the eighth inning. Colby Rasmus led off with a single against Cueto and moved to second on a Yadier Molina bunt. Schumaker hit a deep flyout to center, allowing Rasmus to advance to third. Already at 119 pitches, Carpenter was lifted for pinch hitter Mark Hamilton. Hamilton had 11 career hits coming into play that day, but came through with a single to drive in the game-winning run. The hit would be the last of Hamilton’s major-league career, as he was sent down a few days later and never got another chance. The one run held up as Salas slammed the door with a 1-2-3 ninth inning.
How did the season play out?
Chris Carpenter continued his dominance, going 8-2 with a 2.93 ERA the rest of the way to lead the rotation. Edwin Jackson was acquired in the Colby Rasmus trade and helped stabilize things with a 5-2 record and 3.62 ERA as a starter. The bullpen was remade as Jason Motte eventually shifted to the closer role, posting a 1.83 ERA after July 4. Octavio Dotel and Marc Rzepczynski were both nails after also coming over in the Rasmus trade.
Pujols miraculously returned from his fractured wrist after just two weeks and carried a 157 wRC+ the rest of the way. It was, however, Yadier Molina who led the team in WAR in the second half as his offense exploded. He ran a 148 wRC+ while putting up 3.2 WAR in 62 games to kick off his three-year run as a legitimate offensive weapon. Rafael Furcal was also added at the deadline and helped solidify the infield by taking over shortstop duties from Ryan Theriot.
The July 4 win against the Reds moved the Cardinals into sole possession of first place in the NL Central, a game up on Milwaukee, at 46-40. The Cardinals mostly tread water in July, taking a half-game lead over the Brewers following a win on the 26th. The Brewers then decided to rip off 23 wins over their next 26 games to put the division out of reach. On August 24, the Cardinals were 10 games behind the Brewers and 10.5 games behind the Braves for the Wild Card. The rest, of course, is history. The Cardinals finished the season on a 23-9 stretch while the Braves collapsed, allowing the Cardinals to capture the last playoff spot. You know what happened after that.
The takeaway from checking in on these three teams at the midseason mark is simple: you just never know.
