The 2026 World Cup Draw is a week away, and FIFA started the Thanksgiving holiday a couple days ago by announcing the pots from which the 12 World Cup groups will be filled. The United States Men’s National Team, as a co-host, was already pre-drawn into Group D, but they will learn next Friday who will join them.
As a reminder, here are the pots for the 2026 FIFA World Cup Draw (FIFA ranking in parentheses):
Pot 1 – United States (14), Mexico (15), Canada (27), Spain (1), Argentina (2), France (3),
England (4), Brazil (5), Portugal (6), Netherlands (7), Belgium (8), Germany (9)
Pot 2 – Croatia (10), Morocco (11), Colombia (13), Uruguay (16), Switzerland (17), Japan (18), Senegal (19), Iran (20), South Korea (22), Ecuador (23), Austria (24), Australia (26)
Pot 3 – Norway (29), Panama (30), Egypt (34), Algeria (35), Scotland (36), Paraguay (39), Tunisia (40), Ivory Coast (42), Uzbekistan (50), Qatar (51), Saudi Arabia (60), South Africa (61)
Pot 4 – Jordan (66), Cape Verde (68), Ghana (72), Curaçao (82), Haiti (84), New Zealand (86), UEFA Playoff A winner, UEFA Playoff B winner, UEFA Playoff C winner, UEFA Playoff D winner, Inter-confederation Playoff Path 1 winner, Inter-confederation Playoff Path 2 winner
It creates the game that everyone loves to play: what is the ideal group for the USMNT? Which teams would form a group of death? It’s a topic that will be discussed over and over until the draw actually happens, so let’s play that game right now!
With the United States in Pot 1, they will avoid the top 9 teams in the world, all of whom made the World Cup field. They cannot be drawn against a team from Concacaf, which would include the inter-confederation playoff slots. Each group will have at least one team from UEFA, with four groups having 2 European teams. The USMNT have had at least 2 UEFA teams in their World Cup group in all but just 2 World Cups they have played in, and those two World Cups they also faced a UEFA team. Groups cannot have more than one team from any other confederation.
So, let’s get into some of the ideal opponents that the USMNT would face in Group D, along with the wor starting with Pot 2.
Pot 2: Ideal – Austria; Worst – Morocco
The Pot 2 team will be the one the USMNT sees in their second group stage match of the 2026 World Cup: June 19th in Seattle. The easy choice would be to have Australia in the group. It’s the lowest ranked team in Pot 2 and is a team the USMNT just beat last month in a friendly. However, the most ideal team for the USMNT might be Austria. Austria is the second-lowest ranked team in Pot 2, but is also a UEFA team. That would fill the requirement of having at least one UEFA team in the group, and it would lower the odds that the group will contain one of the UEFA playoff teams, which could also be just as strong.
The worst option would be Morocco. Croatia is still ranked 10th in the world, and even though it would be a UEFA team, that’s a very difficult team to beat. But, Morocco feels like they’re on a wave right now, and it would be ideal for the USMNT to avoid it as long as possible and not have them in the group.
Pot 3: Ideal – Uzbekistan; Worst – Norway
The Pot 3 team that gets drawn into Group D will be the opener for the United States on June 12th in LA. The USMNT will want to start on a positive note, opening the World Cup with a win before the home fans and with the eyes of the nation watching. The most ideal team for that scenario would be Uzbekistan, who is ranked 50th in the world and making their debut at the World Cup. The USMNT played them in a friendly back in September 2023, so they will be ready for their style of play, and it would be a team that they would be a favorite against as they open up the tournament. Uzbekistan could only be drawn into our group if we don’t draw an Asian team out of Pot 2.
The worst option out of Pot 3 is likely Norway. They’re the strongest Pot 3 team at #29 in the world, and they possess one of the world’s stars and deadliest strikers in Erling Haaland. That would be a powerful matchup for TV for the opener, but it would be a nervy one for USMNT fans.
Pot 4: Ideal – New Zealand; Worst – UEFA Playoff A winner
The USMNT will face Group D’s Pot 4 team in the group stage finale on June 25th back in LA. Of course, the final matchday for the group stage could be a decisive one, and a lot could be on the line for the co-hosts in terms of advancement. The ideal team for the USMNT is the lowest rated team they could face: New Zealand. The USMNT has never faced a team from Oceania in the World Cup, and it would be great if the ping pong balls steered the Kiwis into Group D. It’s still a World Cup match where anything can happen, but the USMNT would have an advantage in that matchup.
The worst possible option would be to draw the winner of UEFA Playoff A (Italy, Northern Ireland, Wales, and Bosnia & Herzegovina) and see Italy make it out of that bracket to the World Cup. Italy is ranked 12th in the world, and despite their World Cup struggles, they would be the strongest possible opponent for the U.S. in what could be a pivotal group stage finale.
So, here’s what the ideal and worst options for a group stage could be for the United States:
Ideal – USA, Austria, Uzbekistan, New Zealand
Worst – USA, Morocco, Norway, UEFA Playoff A
As we move closer to the World Cup Draw, everyone can discuss who they would prefer to see in the group stage. And of course, here’s one World Cup simulator to help you go through the possible combinations and see how the group stage could shake out. It will be what many of us think about until the draw occurs on December 5th.
