After an anomalous hot December produced a 7-4 record and—briefly—the NBA’s best defense, the Nets have
settled back into their intended losing ways. Going into the final two months of a long season, they have the
fifth-worst offense in the league, the fifth-worst defense, and the fifth-worst record. (Note to lottery
dreamers: the fifth-worst record earns the sixth pick, on average.)
Unsurprisingly, the Nets haven’t been good at much. Their effective field goal percentage is 27th in the league (52.6%),
and their effective field goal defense is 28th (56.5%). If you can’t make shots and can’t prevent the other guys from making shots, you’re not going to win. But let’s be a little more specific. What have the Nets done (relatively) well? And what are their most urgent problem areas?
The NBA tracks offensive and defensive performance for a variety of distinct play types. The most common
types—spot-up shots, pick-and-roll plays, and transition plays—each account for roughly one-fifth of a typical
NBA offense. The Nets are below league average in efficiency (points scored per possession) in all three of
those categories. (The size of each circle in the figure reflects the frequency of those plays, and the position
above or below the dotted line indicates the Nets’ efficiency relative to other teams.)
The most distinctive aspect of the Nets’ offensive profile is their reliance on spot-up shooting. More than 28%
of their offense consists of stationary spot-up shots, about 5% more than the league average. However, they average a bit less than one point per possession on those shots, well below the league average.
Noah Clowney is 8th in the NBA in spot-up shots per game (5.7), but 253rd in efficiency (.96 points per). Michael Porter Jr. is 18th in volume (5.0 per game), but 245th in efficiency. Jalen Wilson and Ziaire Williams take fewer shots, but they are among the league’s top 20 in their reliance on spot-up shots, and they rank 193rd and 200th in spot-up scoring efficiency. If spot-up shooting is going to be the team’s offensive calling card, these are probably not the guys you want taking the shots. (Egor Dëmin is 46th in the league in spot-up scoring efficiency, but he takes just 3.5 per game.)
Handoff plays are another notable offensive weakness. They are among the least efficient offensive options,
even for average teams—only slightly more efficient than isolation plays. As a result, most teams limit their
use of handoffs to less than 5% of offensive possessions. The Nets rely on them much more heavily, for 9% of
their offensive possessions, despite being well below the low league average in efficiency. Nic Claxton and
Day’Ron Sharpe are both posting the best assist numbers of their careers, so hurray?
The Nets are even further below average in transition scoring. Typical NBA teams score 1.14 points per
transition play, making them the most efficient common play type. But the Nets get out in transition less often
than most other teams do—and when they do, they manage just 1.07 points per possession. As a result, they
are dead last in the league in transition points per game and in fast break points per possession. They need
more defensive rebounds (currently 28th), more steals (currently 22nd), and more emphasis on pushing the
ball all the way up the court, not just far enough to get into offensive sets.
Play type weaknesses are arguably even worse for a team’s defense. If the Nets’ offense does poorly with, say,
post-up plays, they can simply choose to run fewer post-up plays. But on defense, they need to defend
whatever comes at them, and well-prepared opponents will aim to exploit weak links. While offensive
versatility is a virtue, defensive versatility is a matter of survival.
The Nets’ problems in transition are mirrored at the defensive end. Their opponents get out in transition on
20% of their plays, and they score a league-high 1.20 points per possession on those plays. The result: No team
gives up more fast break points. Both the frequency and the efficiency of opponents’ transition plays owe
something to the Nets’ numerous live-ball turnovers; they average 9 opponents’ steals and almost 22
transition possessions per game. Still, it is striking that a team well above average in defending putbacks is so
far below average in transition defense.
The Nets have been even more inefficient defending screen plays. These aren’t a big part of most teams’
offensive repertoires, nor are they generally all that potent; but Nets’ opponents have averaged a remarkable
1.29 points per possession on screen plays. The next worst team in the league, Sacramento, gives up just 1.13,
and average NBA defenses give up just .98. With 135 screen plays defended so far this season, this is hardly the
Nets’ most important defensive failing—but it should be a point of embarrassment.
The Nets are a young team heavily invested in “development.” But development mostly means focusing on
what is hard. As a wise young man put it even before the season got underway, “I’m not only trying to do what
I’m good at and be happy with whatever I have. I’m trying to be a versatile player and to be able to execute
whatever I’m being asked.” That’s a good philosophy for teams as well as individuals. In the Nets’ remaining 29
games, even fans who are not looking for wins should be looking for collective improvement in the areas where they are weakest.
