When writing these annual player predictions, part of the fun lies in the unknown. How will a player perform in a new role? Will they exceed expectations with a new coach? Can they improve and make the leap we’ve all expected? It’s these questions that bring out the fan in all of us and allow us to wonder about things we cannot possibly know with full certainty until the season starts. However, with Jalen Brunson, the last couple of years of writing his player predictions have become less enjoyable.
That’s not a knock on the Knicks’ captain. In fact, it’s a compliment of the highest order- one that has been reserved for the best of the best in the league. Suppose you look back at the last few years. In that case, only guys like LeBron James, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Stephen Curry, Nikola Jokic, Luka Doncic, Kevin Durant, and Jayson Tatum have reached levels of such consistency that predicting their seasons has become almost mundane.
Sure, last year, we all headed into the season wondering what kind of wonderful things the addition of Karl-Anthony Towns would do for Brunson. And in years prior, we pondered what another year of being THE guy would do for his game. But since Brunson’s first year in New York, we, and not just Knicks fans, but the basketball world in general, have come to expect greatness, and nothing less of him.
There are still conversations to be had about what kind of stats he’ll put up, and about the minor improvements he can still make. Will his production take a slight dip with Mike Brown’s potential emphasis on ball movement? Does his three-point percentage see some positive regression as he gets to play off-ball more and utilize the elite catch-and-shoot skills he showcased when playing next to Julius Randle? Can he maintain the otherworldly efficiency he showcased at the end of games last year? But the questions more or less end there.
If I were to take a stab at resolving those questions, though, my answer would be a “yes” to all of them. I do think his numbers may take a slight hit as Brown looks to capitalize on ball movement and player movement. And that very well may lead to fewer points, albeit with better efficiency. I also think that if Brown can channel Towns’ passing ability a bit more than Tom Thibodeau did, then Brunson could have more open catch-and-shoot opportunities, something he saw much less of since Randle got hurt against Miami last year. And yes, while Brunson’s numbers in the clutch may go down, his mentality and confidence in those situations aren’t something that just goes away.
At the end of the day, as long as he is healthy, he’s going to be an All-Star. He’s going to be an All-NBA guard. He’s going to be an MVP candidate. And he’s going to be one of the best players in the league, leading one of the best teams in the league. Expect another 25 PPG+, 6 APG+ season in which he hovers around 40/50/80 splits from one of the most consistent and reliable players in the entire league.
