When diving into opponent previews each week, I find it helpful to scour the relative rankings across a variety of stats to see opponent strengths and weaknesses. The Los Angeles Chargers are 0 – 2 losing both games with the exact score of 14 – 26 which is a fun fact. They’ve had a slew of injuries and well…
No one is really expecting much from them anymore.
Are they good at anything? Across the board on most major offensive stats, they’re mediocre to pretty bad with a relative high point being the 14th
best passing yards per play with 6.85. Yes, the high point is firmly “meh.” What if I told you they had one stat so far that was not only elite, but best in the league? And if it holds true, would actually be a pretty big deal against the Buffalo Bills?
Well, you might want to find out if it was a legit concern or mirage.
No one is better at stopping the run
Yeah, that’s right. At 2.75 yards per rushing attempt allowed, no one is better at stopping the run game than the Los Angeles Chargers. Per game they’re 7th best, allowing 86.5 yards per contest. Are they truly excellent, or is it an early season mirage?
I’m not going to dive into each play specifically, but do want to suggest these are pretty representative of what I saw in the 63 snaps from the Chargers’ run defense. For the short version, I don’t think the run numbers are entirely a mirage. I don’t know if I’m confident they’ll retain the number one spot all season, but based on current information I would say they’ll likely wind up with good numbers.
There’s no single reason which is honestly a bigger compliment. The defense for Los Angeles seems to do well maintaining their assignments and acting as a single unit. No one player stood out as a true game wrecker (Khalil Mack is still doing some really nice things). As a group though, everyone is capable of winning a matchup and making a play.
There are some good stats to also back that this isn’t a fluke. With 63 rushing snaps and the Chargers losing both games by double digits, I wondered if part of their statistical dominance was due to “negative” rushes also known as “kneel downs” by the opponent. And indeed; between the Arizona Cardinals and Las Vegas Raiders, they’ve faced six kneel downs all for -1 yard. That’s 9.5% of their total volume. How big of an impact is that?
If you remove the kneel downs, the Chargers held the Cardinals to 3.6 yards per carry and the Raiders to 2.3 yards per carry. Overall their adjusted run defense rate would be 3.03 yards per rush. That would still be fourth best in the NFL.
Furthermore, while still an admittedly small sample size, both Arizona and Las Vegas performed worse against Los Angeles in the run game than they did in their other matchup this year. On the surface, Arizona had more yards against Los Angeles than the Seattle Seahawks, but on average they were held to 3.4 yards by the Chargers while the Seahawks allowed 4.1 yards per run.
Las Vegas had a looooooowly 1.97 yards per rush against Los Angeles. While the Raiders didn’t exactly establish themselves as a dominant running team against the Miami Dolphins, the 3.51 yards per carry is a lot better than what happened against LA.
Two more thoughts on their run defense not being a fluke. At the end of the first quarter vs. the Raiders a turnover gave Las Vegas the ball at the Chargers’ three-yard line. The results were a loss of two, gain of three, gain of one, and gain of zero. That’s right, a goal line stand of four running plays.
My final thought is on their consistency. Through two games, the Chargers have five tackles for a loss. To compare, the Bills have 13. The Chargers allow the lower rushing rate which means they’re more consistently getting a quick stop.
Is the run defense unbeatable? No. They have allowed a few explosive runs which to my eyes were shiftier runs to the outside. That’s something James Cook could certainly do. The Bills know how to support him too, with the fourth-best yards per carry in the league right now. Josh Allen is also second in the NFL in yards per attempt at 9.7 right now.
The Bills have the firepower to beat the Chargers, and I’m not remotely trying to downplay that message. If there’s one matchup where Los Angeles would have an edge on paper though, run defense would be it.
