The Jake Guentzel trade was one of the first major moves of the Kyle Dubas era. Not only because it involved a core player that won a championship with the Pittsburgh Penguins, but also because it signaled
a shift into a more long-term outlook.
It was the unofficial beginning of the current rebuild, or re-tooling, or whatever you want to call it. It has turned out to be a significant trade with a still growing trade tree. It also keeps looking a little better than it originally did.
I was thinking of this over the past couple of days because a lot of the pieces the Penguins acquired as a result of the trade have been in the news.
Forward Ville Koivunen, one of the key prospects/young players acquired in the trade, was just sent to Wilkes-Barre/Scranton on Thursday to make room for the return of Evgeni Malkin. The offensive production has not been there, but I am still a believer and do not hate the way he has played. The underlying numbers and possession impacts are promising.
Defenseman Harrison Brunicke, who was selected with the second-round pick the Penguins acquired in the trade, just completed the World Junior Championships and was sent back to Kamloops of the Western Hockey League. It is not a perfect situation, but it is probably the best choice given the options available to them. He got a taste of NHL action, spent half a season around the team, got to play in the World Juniors, and now gets to go dominate (hopefully) in the WHL. He may not have been ready for the NHL this season, but he held his own. That is fine. He is 19. If only there was a level between the juniors and the NHL where a player like this could grow and develop.
If only.
There is another layer of branches to that trade tree, and it remains the section that branches out from forward Michael Bunting.
He was the NHL player acquired in the Guentzel trade, and after about a year with the Penguins he was sent to the Nashville Predators for forward Tommy Novak and defenseman Luke Schenn.
Novak remains in Pittsburgh and is doing about what was expected of him. Solid player. Talented. Probably going to score 15-20 goals with 40-45 points in a variety of roles. He has value. I think he is at least more interesting with a potentially higher ceiling than Bunting.
Schenn never actually played a game for the Penguins before he was traded to the Winnipeg Jets. That is where my attention went this week, because I am not sure if you have noticed, but Winnipeg absolutely STINKS right now.
In exchange for Schenn, the Penguins received the Jets’ second-and fourth-round picks in the 2026 NHL Draft. At the time, given that the Jets were on their way to a Presidents’ Trophy winning season with the league’s best record, there probably was not much thought in those picks.
Entering play on Thursday, however, and the Jets have the worst record in the NHL and are one of only four teams with a points percentage below .500 for the season. Not even the return of starting goalie and reigning league MVP Connor Hellebuyck has helped remove the stink from this team. They stink. They absolutely, positively stink. There is also not much in their underlying numbers to suggest any of this is a fluke. They just plain stink. Folks, they stink.
All of a sudden that second-round pick (and to a lesser extent, that fourth-round pick) are going to be looking a little more valuable.
Those would not only be two top-100 picks, the first of those, at this moment, would be the 33rd overall pick in what is considered to be a very deep and very good draft. That gives Dubas and the Penguins a really nice asset that could either be used to, A) Easily move back up into the first round, B) stand pat and still get a solid prospect, or C) use as a trade chip as part of a larger deal for more immediate NHL help.
With Vasily Ponomarev now playing in the KHL, that leaves the Penguins return for Guentzel as being:
- Ville Koivunen
- Harrison Brunicke
- Tommy Novak
- Cruz Lucius (NCAA)
- No. 33 pick in 2026 NHL Draft (as of this moment)
- No. 97 pick in 2026 NHL Draft (as of this moment)
I am not calling the trade a win, because Guentzel is still one of the best forwards in the league and better than every player here. They would objectively be better with him on the team right now. It is hard to call a trade a win when that is still the case.
What I am saying is the Penguins at least managed to get solid value for a rental and have seen the return grow through additional moves. It is still growing. There are good potential pieces here. Perhaps even a couple of NHL players and long-term pieces that could be part of the next contending Penguins team.
This is the one thing that I have really liked about Dubas during his time with the Penguins. The long-term moves and asset management has been extremely solid.
He inherited a team that had the worst farm system in hockey, limited draft picks and an aging, rapidly declining roster. In less than two years the farm system has at least become closer to middle of the pack, there is real young talent on the roster and knocking on the door, and they have more draft picks over the next three years than any team in the NHL. Oh, and the NHL team is still competitive.
