Game Preview: A real test arrives as the Thunder hit the Valley

SB Nation

Who: Phoenix Suns (20-14) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (30-5)

When: 6:00pm Arizona Time

Where: Mortgage Matchup Center — Phoenix, Arizona

Watch: Arizona’s Family 3TV, Arizona’s Family Sports

Listen: ESPN 620

The Suns wrap up Week 11 at home with a visit from the best team in the NBA. Yes, that Oklahoma City Thunder. First time they have been in the building this season, and there is some unfinished emotional business here.

Phoenix has already seen them twice. One loss by four points that felt like a real basketball game. One loss that went straight into the history books for all the wrong reasons, a 49-point avalanche that still smells like smoke. That second one also came without Devin Booker, which matters. A lot. So tonight becomes a simple but uncomfortable question. Which version of the Suns shows up? The group that pushed OKC to the edge? Or the one that looked like pre-mushroom Mario staring down a screen full of Hammer Bros.

The Thunder are elite, no debate. Still, they have dropped four games since December 10. Three came against San Antonio, which raises eyebrows, but it also proves something important. They are great. But not untouchable.

Probable Starters

Injury Report

Suns

Grayson Allen — QUESTIONABLE (Right Knee)
Jordan Goodwin — AVAILABLE (Jaw Sprain)
Jalen Green — OUT (Right Hamstring Strain)

Thunder

Ousmane Dieng — OUT (Right Calf Strain)
Isaiah Hartenstein — OUT (Right Soleus Soreness)
Isaiah Joe — QUESTIONABLE (Left Knee)
Thomas Sorber — OUT (Right ACL)
Nikola Topic — OUT (Surgical Recovery)
Cason Wallace — QUESTIONABLE (Right Knee Soreness)
Jalyin Williams — OUT (Right Heel Bursitis)

What to Watch For

You look at the injury report, and the first instinct is to think Oklahoma City is limping into Phoenix. That is a trap. Even with bodies missing, they still have more than enough firepower to make life uncomfortable for the Suns.

What I will be watching closely is Phoenix’s decision making. You have to be deliberate against this team. You have to be sharp. The Thunder gamble in passing lanes, then recover like nothing ever happened. That means precision has to rule the night. Cross-court passes should be treated like a hard no. A full-on no-fly zone. You can use their aggression against them, but only if you are locked in. Lazy inbounds. Casual outlet passes. Sloppy transition reads. Those are automatic punishment against this group.

In their 30 wins, Oklahoma City averages 27.0 assists and 10.8 steals. In their losses, that drops to 21.2 assists and 8.2 steals. On offense, Phoenix has to protect the ball. On defense, the goal is isolation. That comes with risk. Shai lives at the line when things get stagnant. In their five losses this season, the Thunder still averaged 31.2 free throws. In their wins, that number drops to 22.3. Sending them to the line is not some magic solution, but there might be a method hiding in the mess.

You cannot foul your way into oblivion. That much is obvious. But the Suns are aggressive by nature. And we all know what happens when Phoenix games turn into whistle fests. It cuts against who they are. The irony is that Oklahoma City thrives in chaos, too. So maybe the move is to lean into it. Junk the game up. Push the edges. See what happens.

If it works, great. If it does not, fine. You still have two more cracks at them later this season.

Key to a Suns Win

The Thunder are the real deal. They handle the small stuff like it is sacred. They take the ball from you, second in the league in steals, right behind the Suns, and they never gift it back. Oklahoma City is also second in the NBA in fewest turnovers, which tells you everything about how disciplined they are.

If Phoenix wants a chance tonight, clean basketball has to be the obsession. Value every possession. No freebies. No live-ball turnovers that turn into runway dunks the other way. Perfect basketball does not exist, but against this Thunder team, the Suns have to live as close to it as possible.