What is the story about?
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ACC teams have now reached or passed the midway point of the conference season, so it’s a good time to see how we’re all doing. Who’s running for the conference crown? Who’s looking like an NCAA Regional team? Who’s disappointed?
We’ll go team-by-team through the current standings.
- Georgia Tech
- 31-5 (15-3), RPI #3
- NCAA Regional Outlook: Top 8 national seed
- Remaining Conference Slate: @ North Carolina, vs Wake Forest, vs Duke, @ Boston College
- The Yellow Jackets have won 13 straight and are the only team with a realistic shot of overtaking UCLA for the #1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament. The offense is legit and the pitching is getting better. This is a scary team, especially if the pitching continues on its current hot streak.
2. North Carolina
- 31-6-1 (13-5), RPI #9
- NCAA Regional Outlook: Regional host, potentially a top 8 national seed
- Remaining Conference Slate: vs Georgia Tech, @ Duke, vs Pittsburgh, @ NC State
- UNC has been tremendous at winning close games, going 7-0 in games either decided by a single run or that went extra innings, including a 4-0 mark in conference games. There are two ways to look at that: either this team is nails late in game, or the luck will eventually run out. The truth involves a little of each.
3. Boston College
- 28-12 (11-7), RPI #28
- NCAA Regional Outlook: Regional #2 seed, potential Regional host
- Remaining Conference Slate: vs Duke, @ Notre Dame, @ Clemson, vs Georgia Tech
- Easily the surprise of the season in the ACC. The regular season finale against Georgia Tech is a tough draw, but Duke, Notre Dame, and Clemson are all winnable series, and this Eagles team has been really good – and has helped NC State’s ACC opening series win look even better. Even a .500 finish down the stretch in the ACC puts BC with a host-level record, but the RPI will take a hit with the remaining schedule, including four non-conference games against teams in the 200s of RPI. Todd Interdonato deserves ACC Coach-of-the-Year honors, but he won’t win it with James Ramsey doing what he’s doing with GT.
4. Florida State
- 25-11 (9-6), RPI #6
- NCAA Regional Outlook: Regional host, potential top 8 national seed
- Remaining Conference Slate: vs Notre Dame, @ Stanford, vs Pittsburgh, @ Clemson, vs Miami
- The Seminoles took a huge hit with the loss of Myles Bailey, who was cruising on his way to All-American honors. FSU temporarily weathered the storm winning their series at Virginia the weekend after losing Bailey, but have gone just 1-4 since, including being swept at Georgia Tech. There’s a good chance this team goes 10-5 down the stretch in ACC play, and if that happens, they may well earn a top 8 national seed. The pitching is legit, and that will always play.
5. Virginia
- 26-12 (10-8), RPI # 16
- NCAA Regional Outlook: Regional #2 seed, potential Regional host
- Remaining Conference Slate: vs Clemson, @ Pittsburgh, vs California, @ Louisville
- I highly doubt the Cavaliers will be a Regional host, but the remaining conference series are all winnable and if this team ends up 19-11 in conference play with a top 15 RPI ranking? That’s a Regional host. The non-conference slate is what’s holding the Hoos back, as their best non-conference win is at Liberty.
T-6. Miami
- 27-10 (8-7), RPI #35
- NCAA Regional Outlook: Regional #2 seed, potential Regional host
- Remaining Conference Slate: @ Stanford, vs California, @ NC State, vs Louisville, @ Florida State
- Since losing their series at Duke to start ACC play at 2-4, the Hurricanes have won 13 of 16 overall and gone 6-3 in ACC play. A Regional host is only within reach because Miami could easily go 6-0 over their next two series (that won’t happen, though), and then if they win each of their final three series they’d be 20-10 in ACC play with a Top 20 RPI. They’ll be a 2-seed, though.
T-6. NC State
- 25-12 (8-7), RPI #53
- NCAA Regional Outlook: Regional #2 seed, possible #3 seed
- Remaining Conference Slate: @ Wake Forest, @ Virginia Tech, vs Miami, @ Stanford, vs North Carolina
- Anything short of a 15-2 record down the stretch will see the Wolfpack end up as a #2 seed in a Regional, with the potential that inconsistent play bumps State down to a #3 seed. Losing Jacob Dudan was a huge blow, ultimately taking Cooper Consiglio out of his swingman role. The RPI is going to be a major issue for State if they end up with a losing record in ACC play.
8. Wake Forest
- 25-13 (9-9), RPI #27
- NCAA Regional Outlook: Regional #3 seed, possible #2 seed
- Remaining Conference Slate: vs NC State, @ Georgia Tech, vs Louisville, @ Duke
- The next two weekends will decide what happens to the Demon Deacons, but a winning mark in their series against the Wolfpack and Yellow Jackets will all but wrap up a Regional bid. Anything short will require Wake to get to even over their final two series. The RPI is strong, though, and will help. The pitching staff, per normal, has some freaks.
9. Duke
- 22-17 (8-10), RPI #99
- NCAA Regional Outlook: Not making it
- Remaining Conference Slate: @ Boston College, vs North Carolina, @ Georgia Tech, vs Wake Forest
- The ACC currently has five ranked teams, and Duke has three of those in their remaining schedule, plus Duke has an extra midweek non-conference game scheduled against UNC. That’s not a promising sign for a Duke squad that just hasn’t been able to put it all together. Even with the strong remaining schedule, the RPI is going to be a problem, so they’re going to have to play better than .500 ball the rest of the way in ACC play to have a shot at a Regional.
T-10. Pittsburgh
- 23-12 (6-9), RPI #77
- NCAA Regional Outlook: Not making it
- Remaining Conference Slate: @ Virginia Tech, vs Virginia, @ Florida State, @ North Carolina, vs Notre Dame
- Pitt made some noise with a big offense in non-conference play and then starting 5-4 in ACC play, but it’s been rough going since. Sure, they could go on a heater, but this team doesn’t have the pitching to slow anyone else down and the offense has been quieter against ACC pitching than they have been against the dregs of their non-conference slate.
T-10. Louisville
- 21-16 (6-9), RPI #104
- NCAA Regional Outlook: Not making it
- Remaining Conference Slate: @ California, vs Clemson, @ Wake Forest, @ Miami, vs Virginia
- Widely regarded as the most disappointing team in the conference this year, the Cardinals were a preseason Top 10 team coming off a trip to the College World Series last year. The offense is better than half the teams you’ll see in Regional play – and Tague Davis is worth watching – but the pitching just hasn’t been there (6.49 team ERA) despite being an older group.
T-10. Stanford
- 16-17 (6-9), RPI #131
- NCAA Regional Outlook: Not making it
- Remaining Conference Slate: vs Miami, vs Florida State, @ Notre Dame, vs NC State, @ California
- Louisville aside, Stanford has been the most disappointing team for me since I thought they were going to be a Regional team, but I obviously don’t know a dang thing. You could point to a potential opportunity for better play down the stretch with a less daunting travel schedule, but that alone ain’t going to fix the problems the team has. The offense can be explosive, but the pitching isn’t there.
T-13. Notre Dame
- 17-15 (7-11), RPI #74
- NCAA Regional Outlook: Not making it
- Remaining Conference Slate: @ Florida State, vs Boston College, vs Stanford, @ Pittsburgh
- It was just a few weeks ago that Notre Dame was ranked and looking like they may push for Regional hosting duties, but the Irish have gone just 2-9 since, and with half their remaining ACC slate against ranked opponents, this looks like a season that has slipped away for them. The big issue for the Irish is that if Jack Radel doesn’t carry them to a win in his start, there’s no hope for a series win.
T-13. Virginia Tech
- 17-18 (7-11), RPI #42
- NCAA Regional Outlook: Not making it
- Remaining Conference Slate: vs Pittsburgh, vs NC State, @ California, vs Clemson
- The RPI is solid considering the overall record, so let’s say VT goes 9-3 down the stretch in ACC play while going 4-1 OOC. Does a 30-win, over .500 in ACC play team with a Top 35 RPI miss the tournament? That said, anything less than that has the Hokies staying home. The offense isn’t great and pitching has been inconsistent at best.
15. Clemson
- 24-14 (5-10), RPI #37
- NCAA Regional Outlook: Not making it, possible Regional #3 seed (or even #2 seed)
- Remaining Conference Slate: @ Virginia, @ Louisville, vs Boston College, vs Florida State, @ Virginia Tech
- The Tigers join the Cardinals and Cardinal as the three ACC teams categorized as having disappointing seasons on a national level. The team is just 1-3 in ACC games that have either been decided by one run or gone to extra innings. Flip two of those and Clemson would have series wins over Miami and North Carolina to their credit and the discussion is completely different. The Tigers have played everyone close and are well coached, with a good offense and solid 1-2 starting pitching punch. If you want a team that’s currently down but could make a run to a Regional, this is it.
16. California
- 18-17 (4-11), RPI #71
- NCAA Regional Outlook: Not making it
- Remaining Conference Slate: vs Louisville, @ Miami, vs Virginia Tech, @ Virginia, vs Stanford
- Cal put together a nice non-conference record heading into conference play, but it has been rough since – and keep in mind that the Bears swept Pitt last weekend. If you look at player stats only, this isn’t a bad team at all, but the record… woof.
