Oregon hosted Michigan on Saturday for the first time in Autzen stadium as conference foes. Coming into the game Michigan appeared to be a wounded animal of a team. The week prior the Wolverines lost their 4th game of the year and to make matters worse it was to in-state rival Michigan State at home as 10.5 point favorites. It was such a poor showing that Michigan parted ways with offensive coordinator Jason Beck during the week to end his poor tenure running the offence.
While the Wolverines were
licking their wounds coming into this game, Oregon had found new life thanks to two straight wins since the Ducks had made a change at offensive coordinator. Those two wins put Oregon squarely back into the CFP discussion as a shot at the big ten title was still alive and an at-large bid was also still a possibility for the Ducks. To keep those hopes alive though Oregon would need to beat Michigan as any loss the rest of the season would put the nails in the coffin of the Ducks playoff chances.
There were no last minute surprises on the gameday availability report for Oregon. On the Michigan side two of their disruptive edges would be available after questions earlier in the week which would be critical to their chances at pulling the upset. Michigan won the toss and deferred so Oregon got the ball to start the game.
1st Quarter
I really liked the opening script for the Ducks offence. 1 easy pass to settle Raiola in and two runs gave Oregon 15 yards and a first down at their own 40 yard line. Next up Jay Johnson dialed up a deep shot which Raiola was able to hang in the pocket for jusstt long enough to hit a wide open Jeremiah McCllenan (welcome back 3) for the 60 yard touchdown!
McCllenan even got held on the play AND Raiola threw with no lower body strength meaning the ball floated but Jeremiah had cooked the Michigan secondary so greatly he still was able to come down with the ball and run into the end zone anyways.
Michigan’s first drive with a new play caller started out strong. They were able to block well enough to run the ball successfully and into Oregon territory. But around midfield Tommy Carr just missed his RB out of the backfield for what could have been a big play but instead put them behind the chains. Oregon was able to keep everything in front the next two plays as well to force the punt. Michigan’s punter would do a good job placing the punt inside the Oregon 5 yard line meaning the Ducks would be backed up under their own goal posts to start their 2nd drive.
Raiola and Evan Stewart would connect for a big play down the sideline to quickly move Oregon out of deep field position and near midfield. But from their the offence would stall. Still a successful drive to get precious field position in what was likely going to be a defensive battle. Ettrdige was able to pin Michigan inside their own 20 for their second drive.
After allowing 4.5 yards on 1st down Oregon’s DBs were able to break up 2 passes that might have been flags in the PAC-12 but would never be called in the B1G. The result was a 3 and out and Oregon’s play for field position worked perfectly. The field position would further be aided by an unnecessary roughness penalty by Michigan on the punt setting up Oregon very well for their 3rd drive.
Oregon’s 3rd drive was a good mix of run and pass. Including a ball up the seam to Jamari Johnson and an explosive run for Dierre Hill on 4th and 1. That got the Ducks down inside the 4 yard line and on 3rd and goal Raiola hit a wide open Da’Jaun Riggs out of the backfield to give the Ducks their 2nd TD of the game and make it 14-0.
2nd Quarter
Down two scores Michigan elected to go with Bryce Underwood for their 3rd drive of the game. Throughout the week it was expected Oregon would see both of Michigan’s QBs and ATQ suspected Underwood would give Michigan a better shot in the game. The first play out of the 2nd quarter Michigan’s 5* true freshman running back took the handoff which Oregon’s safeties didn’t properly fill for allowing him to go the distance for a long TD run and to make it a one score game again. 14-7 Oregon.
Oregon’s response drive got off to a good start with Dierre Hill making some miss on the kick return. Raiola would continue dealing on the day hitting Jeremiah McCllenan for a couple of big passes over the middle. Oregon was able to drive the ball all the way to the 5 yard line and it looked like Oregon had their 3rd TD of the game but Dakorien Moore dropped the pass. Oregon couldn’t run the ball in and on 4th down after scrambling Raiola gave freshmen Tight End Kendre Harrsion a chance but he was mugged in the end-zone and of course no flag was thrown meaning the Ducks turned the ball over on downs at the 2 yard line.
The Michigan drive would go nowhere and on 3rd down a snap issue forced the Wolverines to jump on a ball meaning they would go 3 and out for the 2nd time on the day. After the punt underneath the goal posts Oregon started there next drive at their own 42. For the first time all day though the Ducks offence couldn’t pick up a first down meaning they would have to punt. Sadly the punt would roll into the end-zone giving Michigan the ball in better field position for their next drive to try and tie the game.
After giving up a first down Oregon almost had the chance to get a pick but Koi and Ify broke up each other’s interception. The next play Underwood and Hiter would have an issue on the exchange and Michigan would have to punt with just over two minutes to go in the half.
Oregon would go 3 and out for the 2nd straight drive giving Michigan good field position for a two minute drill starting around midfield to tie the game. Michigan would pick up one first down but then Oregon’s DBs would do a good job covering on the next 3 plays to force 3 incompletions and the Michigan punt.
Oregon did have 1 minute and two timeouts but they also had a long way to go on what figured to be their final drive of the half. It started off with a successful Dierre Hill run and was followed by 10+ yard passes to Dakorien Moore and Jamari Johnson to get to the Oregon 41 yard line.
The next play Michigan’s secondary would brain fart and leave Dakorein Moore wide open 50 yards down field. Raiola was able to hit him and he strolled into the end-zone to restore Oregon’s 2 touchdown lead right before halftime. 21-7
At the Half here were the charting stats:
Net YPP: Oregon +2.42
Net Success Rate: Oregon +11%
Net Explosiveness Rate: Oregon +8%
3rd Quarter
Michigan did get the ball coming out of the 2nd half with the chance to make it a one score game again and they elected to go back to Tommy Carr. Carr was able to rip off a couple of chunk yardage runs, one on a designed option, another on a 3rd down scramble to get into Oregon territory. The Ducks were able to keep everything in front of them though and force a 3rd and long. Michigan would pick up 6 on a flip out to Hiter in the flat and being in no man’s land down two scores they elected to go for it. The Ducks collapsed the pocket but Carr was able to escape and momentarily look like he had a chance to scramble for the conversion once again, but Devon Jackson closed quickly and forced him out of bounds to get the stop for the Ducks.
Dierre Hill got the Ducks moving on their 2nd drive with a burst to the outside, tacked on with a face mask penalty and Oregon was at the 11 yard line quickly. But the next play Doug Utu took a penalty after the whistle that put them in 2nd and long. On 3rd and long Gernorris Wilson got beat off the edge and Raiola was sacked forcing Hurcyh to have to attempt a 46 yard field goal that he left short. Oregon appeared to have a sure 3 score lead but a bad penalty and a bad rep from the O-Line kept it a two score game and Michigan on life support 1/2 way through the 3rd quarter.
Michigan’s 2nd drive of the 2nd half they elected to go with a classic B1G approach, running the ball, and they were content to as they were getting 4-8 yards consistently. In 2nd and 7 Michigan elected to throw the ball for the first time on the drive and Matayo Uiagalalei speed rushed past this left tackle to get his 2nd scak of the game and put Michigan in 3rd and 13. But a blitz left the Michigan RB open in the flat and Michigan was able to convert and they were now at the Oregon 34 yard line. A holding penalty on Ify Obidegwu and some more efficiency runs moved the ball all the way inside of the Oregon 10 yard line at the end of the 3rd quarter.
4th Quarter
Inside the 8 yard line and having killed their own clock it was likely 4 down territory for Michigan.
- 1st down
- They rolled Carr out on first down but Oregon had everything covered
- 2nd Down
- They appeared to have the edge on 2nd down but the Michigan RB tried to make a move and the Duck defenders were able to drag him down
- 3rd Down
- QB counter Oregon was able to stuff
- 4th Down
- Elected to throw but Jett Washington got the PBU at the goal-line to get the stop for Oregon
Oregon was able to pick up a first down and appeared to have hit a big run to get the ball moving, but it came back due to a holding call. Convenient time to break out that type of flag. Regardless Oregon needed to punt, but it was still a two score game with only a limited amount of time remaining.
Michigan wasn’t able to run the ball as effectively on their next drive and on 3rd and 5 they were stopped just short of the sticks. But the real headline was that Bear Alexander was able to force a fumble that Brandon Finney recovered to give the ball back to the Duck offence and stop Michigan right in their tracks.
Oregon was unable to move the ball though so they were forced to punt the ball back to Michigan. It appeared Ettrdige had the green light for a fake but Michigan didn’t fully bite and he punted the ball on the run. For being rushed it was a good kick and it forced the Wolverines to start there need to have it drive at their own 13 yard line with just under 6 minutes to go.
Carr avoided the sack and appeared to scramble to set Michigan up in 2nd and short but he fumbled the ball and Oregon recovered it again. It really was an incredible play by Dylan Williams as he forced the fumble from the bench according to the refs.
Regardless Oregon’s next drive started at the Michigan 40 and with such little time remaining the game was effectively over. Oregon was going backwards though due to penalties and they were faced with 3rd and 19. Raiola checked it down to Dierre Hill though and Dierre was able to make multiple Michigan defenders miss and not only pick up the first down but stroll into the End-zone for the dagger.
Michigan went 4 and out in desperation mode which gave Oregon the ball at the 21 yard line. With 2:38 remaining Oregon could have elected to run out the clock but they decided to run two plays before the two minute warning to get the ball to the 4 yard line. I didn’t have a problem with it, Michigan apparently thinks of themselves as a poor FCS school so Oregon should try and get as many reps as possible in a pay check game. Good for scrappy underdog Michigan though they forced Oregon to have to settle for a field goal. Hurych put it through and that made it 31-7.
Here were the charting stats for the game up until the Carr fumble
Net YPP: Oregon +2.21
Net Success Rate: Oregon +6%
Net Explosiveness Rate: Oregon +5%
