The Ohio State men’s basketball team was already not utilizing its bench much heading into Monday night’s game against Nebraska — they ranked 284th in the nation in bench minutes. Then, on Monday, Brandon Noel, who started the first 10 games of the season but has been replaced by A’mare Bynum in the starting lineup for the last four games, injured his foot and left the arena in a walking boot.
On Wednesday afternoon, Jake Diebler said that Noel injured his foot and will be out for “an extended period
of time.” He stopped short of saying that Noel was done for the year, but the Buckeyes will be down a (big) man for — at the very least — several weeks. Noel was by far Ohio State’s most-often used benchwarmer, averaging 20.3 minutes per game off the bench in the North Carolina, Grambling State, and Rutgers games. He played eight minutes off the bench Monday night before leaving with the injured foot.
Noel’s absence means Ohio State loses one of its best finishers at the basket — the sixth-year senior was shooting 75% on two-point field goals this season, even after missing two layups on Monday night against the Cornhuskers. The 6-foot-8, 240-pound senior’s most like-for-like replacement on the roster is probably Ivan Njegovan, but the 7-foot-1 Croatian center has been a healthy, unused substitute in three of Ohio State’s last five games.
Last week, Connor and Justin debated how Ohio State would perform in January. Ohio State plays nine games in January — five of them on the road — and the men’s basketball program has had a few rocky Januaries in the past decade. Justin said the Buckeyes will go 6-3, while Connor said they would go 4-5. Both guys correctly predicted that Ohio State would beat Rutgers but lose to Nebraska.
With Noel out moving forward, minutes are going to open up for at least one player who has not seen the floor much lately. Since Noel was coming off the bench, the starting lineup isn’t going to be affected, but he was previously the first man off the bench, so substitutions and lineup combinations are going to change as soon as Diebler starts subbing out his starters. Common sense says that when Bynum or Christoph Tilly subs out of the game, the other will play center, and Devin Royal, who primarily played power forward his first two seasons, would slide back into his old role. That would leave open the small forward position, where several Buckeyes could potentially slide in and play.
It’s also possible that Ohio State tries to play Tilly and Njegovan together at times, or Bynum and Njegovan. Different opponents will call for different lineups and substitution patterns, so what happened against Oregon on Thursday night may not be what happens every game. But regardless, someone is going to get some extra run moving forward.
This week’s question: Which Buckeye backup will take advantage of a bigger role with Brandon Noel out?
Justin: Colin White
Honestly, the most likely answer is that the starters all play 35 minutes apiece, and they run basically a six-man lineup and try to get by and win games that way, but if there is a player who will come off the bench and have their roles expand, it will be Colin White.
The 2024 Ohio Mr. Basketball and former four-star recruit has played sparingly this season, but has been one of the best defenders for the Buckeyes when he is in the game. However, similar to backup guard Gabe Cupps, he has not shown much on offense when he is in the game.
In 14 games this season, he averages 0.9 points, 1.1 rebounds, and 0.5 assists per game on 43% shooting from the field. The 6’6 sophomore has played the ninth-most minutes for the Buckeyes so far, but outside of the starting five, Noel is out, Gabe Cupps is a guard and likely won’t add minutes based on this injury, and center Ivan Njegovan has seen his minutes decrease as the season has progressed.
White has been the wing defender that the Buckeyes bring off the bench, and for a team that struggles defensively at times, I think they will value his size and effort on the defensive side of the ball.
Connor: Nobody
To be brutally honest, I don’t think anyone beyond Ohio State’s main six guys (including Noel) has proven capable of being a consistent contributor for this team. With Noel out, Colin White, Taison Chatman, Gabe Cupps, Ivan Njegovan, and even Mathieu Grujicic all may get some extra minutes, but their shortcomings this season have made it difficult for the coaching staff to play any of them for long stretches. Noel getting injured doesn’t change that, does it?
If I had to guess, Colin White and Gabe Cupps will see an increase in playing time immediately, but I still don’t think the bench production will increase. White hasn’t shown much confidence on the offensive end so far, and although Cupps did look solid against the Ducks, Noel’s absence is going to be a long one, and we probably need to see him do it for a few games in a row to think that it will be a regular occurrence.
More likely, Ohio State will need to lean even heavier on its starting five for at least the next few weeks until the timeline of Noel’s injury becomes clearer. I expect Mobley, Thornton, Royal, and Tilly to all play 30+ minutes per game going forward, with Bynum possibly joining that group as well.
Teams have successfully navigated long stretches without playing their bunch much, but it is risky. Ohio State is going to be worn down by the end of many games, and this could increase the likelihood of an injury occurring. In the long term, Ohio State could struggle at the end of the season if its starters have “more miles” on them than many other teams’.
Last season, Maryland went 27-9 overall, 14-6 in the Big Ten, and finished the season 322 out of 365 nationally in bench minutes, according to KenPom. Terrapin fans called their starting lineup the “Crab Five,” and each of their starters played between 28 and 32 minutes per game. Maryland went to the NCAA Tournament as a 4-seed and advanced to the Sweet 16.
Maybe someone will step up who thus far has not shown that they are capable of doing so, but I think more likely is Diebler leaning even heavier on the starting five, for better or for worse.
