A couple of weeks ago, eyeing up the Orioles closing out the season against the Yankees, I wondered if maybe the Orioles would be able to knock the Yankees out of hosting a wild card round. Unfortunately
for my sense of schadenfreude, the Blue Jays have not followed through on their part on keeping the Yankees out of the AL East picture. The two teams will enter this final weekend with the same record. Toronto holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Yankees.
The spoiler potential is still there over this final weekend for the Orioles. Nothing quite as satisfying as knocking the 2011 Red Sox out of the postseason entirely, but keeping the Yankees from winning the division would still be fun, especially doing this by winning games in New York. The basic question is: Are the Orioles of right now up to that task? Last week, they weren’t, losing three of four in Baltimore while scoring six runs across the whole four games.
These are games that matter. The stats that are built up in them will count for season and career numbers. It’s not very likely that anybody could really do anything to change the narrative of his season, or that the Orioles as a whole can do much to change the story of 2025.
One thing that has sunk in over the last few days is that the O’s are not going to end up with any player hitting 20+ home runs this year, unless either Gunnar Henderson or Colton Cowser really go berserk over the final few games here. So much has gone wrong to end up here.
The Yankees, meanwhile, have seven players at 20+ homers, led of course by Aaron Judge and his 50+ dingers. I guess one other thing the Orioles can spoil this weekend is the AL MVP race between Judge and Seattle’s Cal Raleigh. Who they spoil it for depends on how well they pitch to Judge specifically. The fact that Trevor Rogers and Kyle Bradish are lined up to go in this final series is nice for the Orioles, at least.
Game 1 – Friday, 7:05pm ET
- BAL starter: Trevor Rogers – 1.35 ERA, 2.42 FIP, 0.872 WHIP in 17 GS
- NYY starter: Will Warren – 4.35 ERA, 4.00 FIP, 1.373 WHIP in 32 GS
The Yankees used their top two guys in the previous series against the White Sox, probably to make sure that Max Fried and Carlos Rodón can be closer to regular rest in the event that the Yankees are playing in the wild card round starting on Tuesday. The Yankees came away with wins in both of those games, so it worked out for them for that reason too. Now they’ve got Warren against Rogers. There haven’t been many games on paper where it’s better for the Orioles this year. This might be one.
Rogers faced the Yankees only a week ago, shutting them out over six innings on the way to a 4-2 Orioles victory. Will the second visit in a week, plus the venue changing to the build-a-ballpark Yankee Stadium right field dimensions, swing things in favor of Yankees batters in a way that wasn’t the case a week ago. He’s had an amazing year no matter what happens in this game. The better this final start goes, the more fun it will be to try to stump for his finishing in third place in the Cy Young voting or something along those lines.
This will be the fourth time that the Orioles have faced Warren this year. They also saw him last Friday, with earlier matchups in April and June. He’s done reasonably well, allowing six runs over 15 innings.
Game 2 – Saturday, 1:05pm ET
- BAL starter: Tomoyuki Sugano – 4.54 ERA, 5.21 FIP, 1.336 WHIP in 29 GS
- NYY starter: Cam Schlittler – 3.27 ERA, 3.94 FIP, 1.303 WHIP in 13 GS
Back in spring training, there was some fun around the idea that, apparently, Sugano signed with the Orioles because he thought it gave him the best chance to in the World Series. This goal was squashed by the chaos that happened elsewhere in the starting rotation earlier in the season, along with other reasons that cropped up along the way. Still, if this is his lone season in the US before going back to Japan, I hope he’s proud of what he’s accomplished as an individual.
Certainly, Orioles fans might have hoped for a little bit better. An ERA a half-run lower wouldn’t have been bad. Still, this is his 30th start, he’s averaging at least five innings per game, and although there’ve been some clunkers along the way, he hasn’t been blasted out of the league. The Yankees did get him pretty good on the 20th, though, scoring four runs in three innings.
Schlittler had a much better game against the Orioles on the 21st, allowing just one run in 5.1 innings. That one, you may recall, fell apart very late for the O’s, as they gave up six runs in the tenth inning to lose. It would be nice if the Orioles could turn a seventh round pick (or later) into an MLB-caliber starter for any length of time.
Game 3 – Sunday, 3:05pm ET
- BAL starter: Kyle Bradish – 2.25 ERA, 2.46 FIP, 1.000 WHIP in 5 GS
- NYY starter: Luis Gil – 3.29 ERA, 4.24 FIP, 1.442 WHIP in 10 GS
Because I am a person who holds sports grudges forever, Gil will always be the player who won an undeserved AL Rookie of the Year over Colton Cowser. Is this an objective truth? No. Of course not. Gil hasn’t pitched much this year, and when he has pitched he’s not looked like the guy from a year ago, with his strikeout rate dropping by close to a half while his walk rate – already high in 2024 – has climbed up to a 5.4 BB/9. He’s mustered an enviable ERA anyway, because there is no guaranteed justice in baseball.
The Bradish Tommy John comeback will not be defined by this last start. It will be nice if it’s good, though. He’s picked up where he left off in 2024 so far and that’s been great to see. Certainly, it’s something that the Orioles, looking ahead to 2026, need to see. A healthy and still-dominant Bradish makes the math that much easier in building a quality roster for next year.
**
This is it. When this is done, the 2025 Orioles season will be over. Unlike the past couple of years, that’s not a sad occasion. These guys have been disappointing. The disappointment was not limited to April and May. They had a bunch of problems all through the season. Not all of these were injury-related. Some guys who were being counted on to be good just weren’t good. Can they turn things around next year? We’ll be wondering from now until when next season starts at the end of next March.
