The Jacksonville Jaguars are the winners of the AFC South. They have a young quarterback and an opportunistic defense. After years of idling in the gutter, they soared to unfamiliar heights, resetting
the biased image the nation holds of our beloved, gritty, horrifically beautiful Jags.
Hold up…
We’ve seen this story before — and the ending wasn’t pretty.
Jacksonville clinched the division, thus clenching the hearts of their fans, in 2017 and 2022 before flopping in “Same Old Jaguars” fashion the subsequent seasons.
Why will things be any different this time around?
Well, for starters, the starting quarterback for the 2026 Jaguars (27-year-old Trevor Lawrence) is better than the primary passers for the 2023 and 2017 teams (24-year-old Lawrence and 25-year-old Blake Bortles, respectively). Lawrence was named an MVP finalist after his tear in the second half of the 2025 season. He’s come a long way from his 2023 season, which he finished on injured reserve. And I’m not going to waste everyone’s time by explaining why he’s better than Bortles.
The 2026 Jaguars should feel much more confident not just in their quarterback but also in their head coach, offensive playcaller, and defensive playcaller compared to 2018 and 2023.
Those two teams failed in part because they were content with the coaching staff. To be fair, it’s asking a lot to make significant changes after making the playoffs. What’s more damning is that those two teams were content with the roster.
The Jaguars extended Bortles’ contract in 2018. Their two big moves that offseason were drafting DT Taven Bryan with the 29th overall pick and signing RG Andrew Norwell to a top-of-the-market deal. The Allen Bros (WRs Robinson and Hurns) left in free agency along with nickel CB Aaron Colvin, who was replaced by D.J. Hayden. The front office didn’t make any significant changes to maximize the sudden turnaround.
Same goes in 2023. Trent Baalke spent three of his first four draft picks (TE Brenton Strange, RB Tank Bigsby, LB Ventrell Miller) on non-premium positions that already had an above-average starter in place. The big moves that offseason were placing the franchise tag on Evan Engram and replacing RT Jawaan Taylor with first-round pick Anton Harrison. There are certainly cap-related reasons to consider as well, but for a second time, the front office sat on its hands and assumed Jacksonville’s growth would be linear, or at least stay flat.
Instead, the 2018 and 2023 Jaguars were bitten by the injury bug and regressed in several key categories.
The Sacksonville defense was obviously due for regression in turnover margin (they ended up falling from fifth-best in 2017 to third-worst in 2018), but they also worsened in sack margin (from second-best to fifth-worst). Tough look given the nickname. In fact, according to Sharp Football Analysis, their -18 differential in forced sacks from 2017 to 2018 was the largest year-to-year difference for any NFL team in 30 years.
Sacks were already an issue for the 2025 Jaguars, and we all just watched the Seahawks’ pass rush dominate Super Bowl LX. One would think that general manager James Gladstone and the current regime will bolster the defensive line aggressively this offseason. That may be the path to ensuring 2026 doesn’t end up like 2018 or 2023.
I recorded a podcast with John Shipley on this very subject if you’re interested in more rationale.
Are you still nervous about history repeating itself, Jaguars fans?
Tell us why or why not in the comments!
