Game notes
- Time and date: Saturday, September 13 at 3:30 p.m. ET
- Network: CBS Sports Network
- Location: Robert W. Plaster Stadium — Springfield, MO
- Spread: SMU (-27.5)
- Over/under: 60.5
- All-time series: No previous matchups
Setting the scene
What a way to open your home stadium as an FBS opponent. The Missouri State Bears are one of two new FBS additions this year, jumping from the FCS level to Conference USA. Missouri State took its first two matchups on the road, but the Bears make a splash opening at home against a reigning College Football Playoff participant.
The SMU Mustangs stroll into town, but the coveted ranking beside their name finally evaporated. After a late fourth quarter collapse last Saturday vs. Baylor, resulting in a double-overtime
heartbreaker, SMU is unranked for the first time since the Oct. 5, 2024 AP Poll. Speaking of comebacks, Missouri State wound up on the other side of one for its first FBS win, stunning Marshall after trailing by 13 in the second half.
It’s a get-right week for SMU’s first road game of 2025, as Missouri State hopes to do the unthinkable in front of the first-ever FBS crowd in Springfield, MO.
SMU Mustangs outlook
This isn’t uncharted territory for Rhett Lashlee and the Mustangs. SMU also dropped a Week 2 home matchup to Big 12 competition in 2024, and just like Saturday vs. Baylor, that 2024 BYU game was one the Mustangs let slip away. But they learned from it and rattled off 10 consecutive wins to finish 8-0 in ACC play, qualifying for the ACC Championship Game, and subsequently, the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff.
SMU’s season goals are still reachable after adversity, but there are elements the Mustangs must shore up after a 48-45 double-overtime loss. Passing defense remains at the forefront of things that need work, as the Mustangs rank 135th of 136 teams through a diminutive two-game sample size, yielding 342 aerial yards per game. Baylor was able to erase a 14-point fourth quarter deficit in fewer than six minutes thanks to frequent pickups through the air. Sawyer Robertson collected an efficient 440 passing yards and four touchdowns on the SMU defense.
The secondary is the most veteran position group on SMU’s defense, returning a slew of starters from 2024 including First Team All-ACC strong safety Isaiah Nwokobia and All-ACC honorable mention free safety Ahmaad Moses. But one reason the secondary took a hit Saturday was the lack of pressure from a refurbished defensive line. Defensive line was the unquestionable No. 1 strength of the 2024 playoff-bound Mustangs, but the team was credited with one sack and zero QB hurries vs. Baylor. The d-linemen were solid in the run game, sniffing out and stifling two separate Baylor 4th and 1 opportunities, but SMU will need Isaiah Smith and Cam Robertson to spark the pass rush moving forward. Also helpful would be a potential return of inside linebacker Alex Kilgore, who missed Week 2 due to an ankle injury, which Lashlee previously referred to as “day-to-day.”
The other starter out Week 2 with a “day-to-day” injury was wide receiver Jordan Hudson — the returning leader in receiving yards from last year’s ACC runner-up. Hudson was a massive loss Saturday, but the offense still produced a spectacular output devoid of the senior receiver. Quarterback Kevin Jennings completed 17-of-23 passes for 296 yards and three touchdowns, with a red zone interception, primarily relying on big plays to Romello Brinson and Jalen Cooper. Both receivers landed a 75-yard touchdown pass to initiate a possession, as SMU often looks for home run shots as drive-starters.
Jennings’ deep ball was on point as was the run game led by UCLA transfer T.J. Harden. Harden assumed the lead back role and managed 127 rushing yards and three touchdowns in his second game as a Mustang, breaking free often for 6.1 yards per carry.
Missouri State Bears outlook
Missouri State received its “welcome to the FBS” moment in Week 1 as the only FBS program to take a 60-point shellacking for its opener. The Bears traveled to USC to face a high-powered offense and could only watch the Trojans score over and over, falling to an 0-1 record. Week 2 presented a more level playing field for Ryan Beard and the Bears, and despite entering as more-than-touchdown underdogs at reigning Sun Belt champion Marshall, Missouri State was unfazed.
The Bears trailed 20-7 at the 9:08 mark of the third quarter, hoping to regain a sign of life after the Thundering Herd rattled off 20 unanswered. That sign of life was manufactured by Jacob Clark and a dynamic passing attack. The seventh-year senior quarterback, who started at Minnesota in 2019, sustained success from his FCS days. Clark fired for 359 yards and three touchdowns in a triumphant comeback, delivering the game-winning strike to Jeron Askren with 2:12 remaining.
Missouri State hasn’t been able to shake opponents with its run game yet, averaging 2.2 and 2.3 yards per carry in its Week 1 and Week 2 matchups, respectively. While former FIU running back Shomari Lawrence looks to sharpen that aspect of the Bears’ offense, Missouri State will try to rely on Clark and the passing game. Clark has been rather efficient all season although operating with a shorter throw profile at USC before slinging it more freely at Marshall. The only issue with the passing game has been keeping the veteran quarterback upright.
Many coaches cite the greatest difference between FCS and FBS rosters is what lies in the trenches, and so far, that statement has proven true for Missouri State. The Bears are second-to-last in the FBS, only ahead of Utah State, in sacks allowed per game at 5.5. Clark hopes to evade these sacks to make more plays with his legs in the future. Although he’s never been renowned for his mobility, he succeeded in this department last Saturday by gaining 30 yards even after accounting for six sacks.
Defensively, it’s been a tale of two opponents for the Bears. There aren’t many positive takeaways when surrendering 597 yards and 73 points to a USC team which inflicted severe damage through both the ground and air. However, Missouri State was tremendous in the coverage aspect at Marshall, limiting the Thundering Herd to 83 yards on a 13-of-24 showing. While there were a slew of explosive plays allowed in the run game, Missouri State had the air on lock, allowing just two passes exceeding 13 yards and one exceeding 20.
Prediction
Week 2 presented a valiant moment in Missouri State program history, as the Bears secured their first FBS win in an inspiring comeback over the reigning Sun Belt champions. However, Week 3 presents a challenge more similar to Week 1 as SMU’s offense is explosive and productive. It’s pick your poison with the Mustangs, as T.J. Harden and the ground game are proven to be lethal, just like Kevin Jennings and a passing attack not afraid to take frequent deep shots.
SMU should see no shortage of points on a defense that already surrendered 73, and the Mustangs jump back into the win column heading into a massive rivalry game at TCU.
Prediction: SMU 49, Missouri State 13
